How these notes are made

One database, every source

Every figure comes from GrainBoard. For supply and demand it consolidates USDA, FranceAgriMer, Conab, StatCan, ABARES, MAGyP, BAGE, SovEcon, Eurostat and other national sources. For trade flows it uses customs and shipment statistics, plus US export sales. It also covers crush volumes and margins, biofuel production and margins, crop conditions, spreads and basis, and physical FOB and C&F prices. When a note uses a figure from outside GrainBoard, the source is named.

Normalised and historised

Marketing years follow one convention across all sources, so USDA and national estimates compare label for label. Units are documented for every series and converted before two series are compared. History runs from 2000 for balance sheets, ten years for basis, and several seasons for trade flows and prices. That is what makes statements like “the deepest discount in five years for the date” possible. Each number is read against its own seasonal history, not quoted in isolation.

Physical and futures, read together

Balance sheets show what the market expects. Cash prices, basis, curve structure, and the pace of exports and crush show what buyers and sellers are actually doing. Every note reads both.

Traceable

Each note lists the GrainBoard modules it draws on, and charts carry a “Source: GrainBoard” credit naming their module. The modules are:

• Supply & Demand — Balance sheet, Report revisions, Seasonal stocks
• Exports — Exports, Imports
• Crushing — Crush Activity, Crush Margins, Veg Oils Supply
• Biofuel — Supply, Feedstocks, Margins, Spreads
• Crop Progress — Conditions, Planting progress, Harvest progress
• Spreads — Spreads, Basis, Correlation Heatmap
• FOB Prices — FOB Prices, C&F Prices

Review and signature

Drafts are produced by an AI analysis system from GrainBoard data. Every note is then checked, edited and signed by Marius Garrigue, a grain and oilseed market analyst for ten years. Errors are corrected in place, and material changes update the note's date.

Reading the conviction board

• Bullish / Bearish: fundamentals point clearly one way.
• Bullish bias / Bearish bias: one side outweighs the other, but not enough for a call.
• Neutral: the forces offset.

Not investment advice

Market Notes are published for information only. They describe our reading of market fundamentals and do not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or a solicitation to buy or sell any commodity, futures contract or financial instrument. They contain no price targets, entry levels or recommendations to trade. Conviction boards express a directional view on fundamentals, not a trading signal.