Desk View — 12 October 2026: US corn piles up unsold, France pays for corn on hand, rapeseed curve pays to store
The USDA lifts US corn stocks while US export sales lag, as French buyers pay up for nearby corn and the rapeseed curve pays holders to store seed. We are bearish on CBOT corn, CBOT SRW wheat and Euronext rapeseed, bullish on Euronext milling wheat, Euronext corn and CBOT soybean oil, and neutral on HRW wheat, soybeans, soybean meal and canola.
Conviction board
| Product | Contract | View | In one line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milling Wheat | Euronext | Bullish bias | French cash wheat trades close to futures and March pays little over December; the USDA cuts EU stocks on higher feed use. The largest Russian stock in seven seasons and cheaper Argentine wheat in North Africa hold conviction down. |
| SRW Wheat | CBOT | Bearish bias | The dearest milling wheat at port, slow export sales, and a USDA cut to US exports: wheat stays in the US. Stocks in the middle of their range and a curve that does not pay to store hold conviction down. |
| HRW Wheat | CBOT | Neutral | The HRW premium over SRW sits near its norm, physical and futures alike, with protein plentiful in spring wheat and Canada. |
| Corn | CBOT | Bearish | The USDA lifts US production and ending stocks above every season from 2020/21 to 2024/25, while export sales cover their smallest share in six seasons and US corn is the cheapest origin nowhere. |
| Corn | Euronext | Bullish bias | Bordeaux cash over futures and March under November, the deepest for the date in five years, as the USDA cuts the EU crop. Much cheaper imported corn holds conviction down. |
| Soybeans | CBOT | Neutral | The Gulf pays for beans during a late US harvest, against Brazil's largest unshipped surplus in six seasons, landed cheaper in China. |
| Soybean Meal | CBOT | Neutral | Argentine crush 11.5% above average clears through Argentina's own export premium; the CBOT curve has lost its carry without the US Gulf premium confirming it. |
| Soybean Oil | CBOT | Bullish bias | US biofuel use runs above the USDA balance and cheap South American oil does not enter the US. A flat curve and a single month of data hold conviction down. |
| Rapeseed | Euronext | Bearish bias | February pays a wider carry over November than in any of the four previous years at this date, Rouen cash is priced off November, and EU crushers process less than usual. |
| Canola | ICE | Neutral | Strong Canadian crush and exports against the weakest Saskatchewan cash for the date in ten years, with the harvest half done. |
The October USDA report adds to a US corn surplus that export buyers are not taking, while in France buyers still pay for corn they can have now and the rapeseed market pays holders to store seed into February. We are bearish on CBOT corn, CBOT SRW wheat and Euronext rapeseed, bullish on Euronext milling wheat, Euronext corn and CBOT soybean oil, and neutral on HRW wheat, soybeans, soybean meal and canola.
Wheat
Euronext milling wheat (bullish, low conviction). French wheat on hand is paid for without a storage discount, because there is no surplus to carry. Rouen cash trades €1.25/t under futures, against a long-run median of €3.75/t under, and only 2021 was firmer at this date in the past ten years. March pays only €1.25/t over December, the second narrowest spread for the date in five years, so holders are hardly paid to keep wheat into the spring. The October USDA report gives the reason: it raises EU domestic wheat use by 1 Mt, as feeders replace scarce and expensive corn, and lowers EU ending stocks to 11.72 Mt from 13.52 Mt a month ago, the third lowest in seven seasons. Conviction is low because Russia is building a stock of 19.09 Mt, the largest in seven seasons against 10.59 to 14.39 Mt before, after the USDA cut its export forecast from 43 Mt to 40 Mt, and because Argentine wheat now lands in Algeria and Morocco $1.50/t under French wheat on a C&F basis.
CBOT SRW wheat (bearish, low conviction). US soft red winter is the most expensive milling wheat at port, $25/t over French wheat on a FOB basis, and it does not sell: export sales cover 49.5% of the USDA programme, the second smallest share at this point in six seasons (49.1% to 60.1% before). The USDA took note in October, cutting the US export forecast by 0.68 Mt and raising ending stocks by 0.63 Mt to 20.14 Mt. Price, flow and balance sheet say the same thing: wheat stays in the US. Conviction is low because those stocks are still 4.90 Mt below last season, in the middle of the 15.5 to 25.04 Mt seen over six seasons, and because the futures curve does not yet pay to store, with March only 14.25 c/bu over December, the narrowest for the date in five years.
KC HRW wheat (neutral). Hard red winter sells $42/t over soft red winter FOB at the US Gulf. The gap between that physical premium and the premium on the futures board is $24.3/t, close to its average of $27.3/t since 2021. Protein is plentiful: Minneapolis spring wheat trades only 24.25 c/bu over Chicago SRW, the smallest premium for the date in five years (49.3 to 158.25 c/bu before), and Canada has shipped 4.44 Mt of wheat by week 40 of its season, against 2.47 to 3.57 Mt at the same point in the past five seasons. Nothing pulls HRW away from the wider US wheat balance.
Corn
CBOT corn (bearish). The October USDA report raises US production by 5.95 Mt and the carry-in from last season from 48.82 Mt to 53.22 Mt. Ending stocks for 2026/27 rise by 7.18 Mt to 46.97 Mt, above every season from 2020/21 to 2024/25 (31.36 to 44.79 Mt), though still under last season's 53.22 Mt. Demand does not keep up: export sales cover 23.3% of the programme, the smallest share at this point in six seasons (24.3% to 42.3% before), because US corn is not the cheapest origin on a C&F basis in any of the four destinations covered, China, Egypt, Europe and Japan, and Argentine corn lands under it in all four. The production risk that held conviction down has resolved in the direction of more corn. What could still change the picture is a harvest only 23% done, against 30% to 41% at the same week in the four previous seasons on record, or US corn becoming competitive again.
Euronext corn (bullish, low conviction). French corn on hand fetches more as the harvest ends, 84% done against 6% to 83% at the same week in the past five seasons. On 9 October, the day CBOT corn lost €7.2/t, Euronext November gave up only €0.75/t, and March now trades €8/t under November, the deepest discount for the date in five years (from €0.25/t under to €7.50/t over before): the market pays for corn now rather than later. Bordeaux cash trades €4.75/t over futures, the strongest premium for the date in ten years against €3.25/t in 2021. The USDA confirms a smaller EU crop, 48.0 Mt instead of 50.6 Mt, and has Europe absorb it by using 2.4 Mt less corn, with imports unchanged at 23.5 Mt. Conviction is low because imported corn stays much cheaper: Euronext corn stands $43/t over Argentine corn landed in Europe on a C&F basis, and Ukraine has harvested only 6% of its crop (5% to 51% at the same week before). Once Ukrainian corn ships, the premium can ease from there.
Soybeans
CBOT soybeans (neutral). The Gulf pays for US beans on hand, with Nola cash $47.02/t over futures against $28.88/t a year ago, because the US harvest is 25% done against 43% to 49% at the same week in the four previous seasons on record. The US export book covers 49.4% of the USDA programme, the second highest share at this point in six seasons. Against that, Brazil still has 25.3 Mt to ship to meet its official export forecast, the most at this point in six seasons, and lands beans in China $16.25/t under US beans on a C&F basis. The October USDA report moves neither side.
CBOT soybean meal (neutral). Argentina has crushed 11.5% more soybeans since April than its five-season average and has exported 12.8 Mt of meal by August, above the previous high of 12.76 Mt. That surplus clears through Argentina's own export price: its meal sells $26.5/t over the Chicago board, inside the middle half of its range since 2022, and nothing shows it reaching the meal deliverable in Chicago. Against that, the CBOT curve has lost its carry, with May $3.7 per short ton under December against $5.2 over on 4 September, while the US Gulf export premium, $50.5/t over futures, also sits inside the middle half of its range since 2022 and does not confirm a shortage. The two forces offset.
CBOT soybean oil (bullish, low conviction). US biofuel plants use more soybean oil than the USDA balance assumes: 0.77 Mt in July, the largest month in five seasons of data against a previous high of 0.70 Mt, and the USDA lowers the 2026/27 carry-in to 0.75 Mt from 0.83 Mt. Cheaper South American oil does not fill the gap: Argentine and Brazilian oil trade FOB $254/t to $266/t under the US futures price, yet imports cover only about 2% of US soybean oil use. The energy side stays firm, with Brent December $8.16 a barrel over March against $5.68 at the end of August and no more than $5.70 at any point in August. Conviction is low because the futures curve is flat, with March only 0.46 c/lb over December, and July is a single published month.
Rapeseed and canola
Euronext rapeseed (bearish, low conviction). There is too much rapeseed in Europe for nearby delivery. February trades €53.75/t over November, against €2 to €17.75/t at the same date in the four previous years, so the market pays an unusually large return to anyone who stores seed now and delivers it later. The widening comes from November, which fell from €537.50/t to €502/t between 5 and 9 October while February held between €552.75/t and €561/t. Rouen cash is priced off November, and at the last print on 5 October stood €25/t under February, against €3.50/t to €14.25/t under at the same date before. EU crushers processed 5.6% less seed in July and August than their five-season average, despite a French crush margin of €232/t, higher than on 96% of days on record. The imbalance sits in the nearby months, not in the season: the USDA puts EU ending stocks at 2.12 Mt against 2.52 Mt last season.
ICE canola (neutral). Canadian crushers processed 1.24 Mt in August, against 0.63 to 0.87 Mt in the same month of the past five seasons, and exports run at 126% of their five-season average. Against that, Saskatchewan cash trades CAD 67.12/t under futures, the weakest for the date in ten years against CAD 62.65/t under in 2025, and January pays CAD 13.10/t over November (CAD 0 to 14.50/t at the same date before), with the crop 45% harvested against 71% to 97% at this week in the past five seasons. Demand pulls, but the harvest supply is not yet in hand.
What changed today
- CBOT corn: bearish, conviction raised from low to high, after the USDA raised US production by 5.95 Mt and ending stocks to 46.97 Mt.
- CBOT soybean meal: bearish, low conviction, to neutral, as the Argentine surplus clears through its own export premium while the CBOT curve has lost its carry.
To watch: weekly US export sales, US corn and soybean harvest progress, the November USDA report, the Rouen and Bordeaux cash prices, the Euronext corn and rapeseed calendar spreads, Ukrainian corn harvest progress and shipments, wheat C&F prices in North Africa, September crush data in the EU, the US and Canada, and US soybean oil stocks and biofuel use.
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