Desk View — 13 October 2026: French buyers pay up for corn on hand, US corn and wheat find few export buyers
Bordeaux cash corn is at its strongest for the date in ten years and the Euronext corn curve slopes down, while US corn and soft red winter wheat lag in export sales. We are bearish on CBOT corn, CBOT SRW wheat and Euronext rapeseed, bullish on Euronext milling wheat, Euronext corn and CBOT soybean oil, and neutral on HRW wheat, soybeans, soybean meal and canola.
Conviction board
| Product | Contract | View | In one line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milling Wheat | Euronext | Bullish bias | French cash wheat trades close to futures and March pays little over December, as wheat cheaper than corn goes into feed. The largest Russian stock in seven seasons holds conviction down. |
| SRW Wheat | CBOT | Bearish bias | The dearest milling wheat at port, with sales behind even the USDA's reduced export forecast. A curve that does not pay to store holds conviction down. |
| HRW Wheat | CBOT | Neutral | The HRW premium over SRW sits near its norm, physical and futures alike, with protein plentiful in spring wheat and Canada. |
| Corn | CBOT | Bearish | US ending stocks above every season from 2020/21 to 2024/25, export sales covering their smallest share in six seasons, and Gulf cash back down after the USDA report. |
| Corn | Euronext | Bullish bias | Bordeaux cash at its strongest for the date in ten years and the whole Euronext curve sloping down, on a smaller EU crop. Much cheaper imported corn holds conviction down. |
| Soybeans | CBOT | Neutral | The Gulf pays for beans during a late US harvest, against Brazil's largest unshipped surplus in six seasons, landed cheaper in China. |
| Soybean Meal | CBOT | Neutral | Nearby Chicago meal gains on later months and Gulf premiums follow within their usual range, against record Argentine crush and meal exports. |
| Soybean Oil | CBOT | Bullish bias | US biofuel use runs above the USDA balance and cheap South American oil does not reach the US. A flat curve, easing distillate curves and rising palm stocks hold conviction down. |
| Rapeseed | Euronext | Bearish bias | November trades far under February and French export rapeseed follows November down, while EU crushers process less than usual. Missing September crush data hold conviction down. |
| Canola | ICE | Neutral | Strong Canadian crush and exports against the weakest Saskatchewan cash for the date in ten years, with the harvest half done. |
French buyers are paying for corn and wheat they can have now: Bordeaux cash corn is at its strongest for the date in ten years and the whole Euronext corn curve slopes down, while US corn and soft red winter wheat find few export buyers. We are bearish on CBOT corn, CBOT SRW wheat and Euronext rapeseed, bullish on Euronext milling wheat, Euronext corn and CBOT soybean oil, and neutral on HRW wheat, soybeans, soybean meal and canola.
Wheat
Euronext milling wheat (bullish, low conviction). French wheat is not discounted in the middle of its export season, because Europe has little to spare. Rouen cash trades €1.25/t under futures, against a long-run median of €3.75/t under, the joint second firmest for the date in ten years after 2021. March pays only €1.25/t over December, the second narrowest spread for the date in five years (from €0.50/t under to €12.25/t over before), so holders are hardly paid to store wheat into the spring. The tightness comes from feed demand: Euronext wheat trades €33.75/t under Euronext corn, against wheat €5 to €33.50/t over corn at this date in the four previous years, so feeders put wheat in place of corn. The October USDA report raised EU domestic wheat use by 1 Mt and cut EU ending stocks to 11.72 Mt, the third lowest in seven seasons. France is again cheaper than Argentina in Algeria and Morocco, by $1/t on a C&F basis, and Black Sea wheat ships slowly: Russia exported 6.4 Mt by the end of September, against 8.94 to 15.43 Mt in the five previous seasons. Conviction is low because Russia holds 19.09 Mt of wheat stocks, the largest in seven seasons (10.59 to 14.39 Mt before), which can weigh once its export routes reopen, and because French port loadings have shown only one strong week.
CBOT SRW wheat (bearish, low conviction). US soft red winter is the most expensive milling wheat at port, $23.50/t over French wheat on a FOB basis, and US sales lag even the export programme the USDA cut in October. Sales cover 49.5% of the USDA's 20.41 Mt, the second smallest share at this point in six seasons (49.1% to 60.1% before). Applied to the share of final exports sold by this week in each of the five previous seasons, current sales point to exports under 20.41 Mt in four cases out of five, which would leave US stocks above the USDA's 20.14 Mt. Conviction is low because the futures curve does not pay to store: March trades only 13.75 c/bu over December, the narrowest for the date in five years (16.75 to 30 c/bu before).
KC HRW wheat (neutral). Hard red winter sells $38.75/t over soft red winter FOB at the US Gulf. The gap between that physical premium and the premium on the futures board is $22.95/t, close to its average of $27.29/t since 2021. Protein is plentiful: Minneapolis spring wheat trades only 24 c/bu over Chicago SRW, the smallest premium for the date in five years (44.8 to 152 c/bu before), and Canada has shipped 4.44 Mt of wheat by week 40 of its season, the most in six seasons against 2.47 to 3.57 Mt before. Nothing sets HRW apart from the wider US wheat balance.
Corn
CBOT corn (bearish). The October USDA report put US ending stocks for 2026/27 at 46.97 Mt, above every season from 2020/21 to 2024/25 (31.36 to 44.79 Mt), and export sales cover only 23.3% of the programme, the smallest share at this point in six seasons (24.3% to 42.3% before). US corn is rarely the cheapest origin: on a C&F basis Argentine corn lands under it in China, Egypt and Japan, and the US is ahead only in Europe, by $1.50/t. Nola cash, which jumped to $46.63/t over futures on the day of the report, is back at $37.60/t, within the $34.31/t to $37.62/t of the week before: nothing is pulling US corn out of the country.
Euronext corn (bullish, low conviction). European corn is short for nearby delivery. Bordeaux cash trades €9/t over futures, the strongest for the date in ten years against a previous high of €2.25/t in 2023, and the whole Euronext curve slopes down, not only the expiring contract: March trades €9.50/t under November, the deepest discount for the date in five years (from €0.25/t to €7.25/t over before), and June €4/t under March. The USDA has cut the EU crop to 48.0 Mt, the smallest in seven seasons, and has Europe absorb the shortfall by using 2.4 Mt less corn rather than importing more, with imports unchanged at 23.5 Mt. Conviction is low because imported corn is much cheaper: Euronext November stands $53/t over US corn landed in Europe on a C&F basis, a gap that can draw Ukrainian and South American corn as it ships.
Soybeans
CBOT soybeans (neutral). The Gulf pays for US beans on hand, with Nola cash $43.08/t over futures against $30.58/t a year ago, because the harvest is late: 25% done against 43% to 49% at the same week in the four previous seasons on record. Against that, Brazil still has 25.3 Mt to ship to meet its official export forecast, the most at this point in six seasons, and lands beans in China $15/t under US beans on a C&F basis. The two forces offset, and the futures curve shows an ordinary carry, with January 17 c/bu over November against 9 to 18.75 c/bu at this date in the four previous years.
CBOT soybean meal (neutral). Nearby meal in Chicago is gaining on later months: May trades $7 per short ton under December, against $5.2 over on 4 September. The US Gulf export premium has followed, to $56.1/t over December futures from $22.6/t on 4 September, but stays inside the middle half of its range since 2022. Against that, Argentina crushes and ships a record: its soybean crush since April runs 11.5% above the five-season average and its meal exports reached 12.8 Mt by August, above the previous high of 12.76 Mt. Neither side dominates yet.
CBOT soybean oil (bullish, low conviction). Biofuel demand keeps US soybean oil tight: plants used 0.77 Mt in July, the largest month in five seasons of data against a previous high of 0.70 Mt and more than the USDA balance assumes, and the USDA has cut the carry-in to 0.75 Mt from 0.83 Mt. The US market is sheltered from the world surplus: Argentine oil trades FOB $272/t under the US futures price, yet imports cover only about 2% of US use. The US renewable diesel margin rose back to $851/t on 9 October, from $771/t a week earlier. Conviction is low because the futures curve is flat, with March 0.41 c/lb over December, under 1% of the December price; because distillate curves are less inverted, with ICE gasoil November $139.75/t over March against $251/t on 16 September; and because Malaysian palm oil stocks rose to 3.51 Mt in September, from 2.82 Mt in August and against 1.76 to 2.36 Mt in September of the five previous years.
Rapeseed and canola
Euronext rapeseed (bearish, low conviction). The surplus is in rapeseed available now. November trades €35.25/t under February, against €1.50 to €17.50/t at the same date in the four previous years, so the market pays an unusually large return for storing seed. French export rapeseed has followed November down: FOB France fell from €532/t on 5 October to €504/t on 12 October and stands €13.2/t under November, a discount deeper than on 94.8% of sessions since March 2022. EU crushers processed 5.6% less rapeseed in July and August than their five-season average, and the EU rapeseed biodiesel margin has fallen from $308/t on 18 September to $213/t on 9 October. Conviction is low because September crush data are not yet published, and because the USDA puts EU ending stocks at 2.12 Mt, under last season's 2.52 Mt.
ICE canola (neutral). Canada crushes and exports at a pace above past seasons: crushers processed 1.24 Mt in August, against 0.63 to 0.87 Mt in the same month of the past five seasons, and exports run at 126% of their five-season average. Against that, Saskatchewan cash trades CAD 66.60/t under futures, the weakest for the date in ten years against a previous low of CAD 58.62/t under in 2025, with the crop 45% harvested against 71% to 97% at this week in the past five seasons, and January pays CAD 13.10/t over November, near the top of the CAD 5.80 to 14.50/t seen at this date in the four previous years, so the market pays to store. The two offset.
What changed today
No view and no conviction changed today.
To watch: weekly US export sales, US corn and soybean harvest progress, the Rouen and Bordeaux cash prices, the Euronext wheat, corn and rapeseed calendar spreads, FOB France rapeseed, wheat C&F prices in Algeria and Morocco, Russian wheat exports and Ukrainian corn shipments, September crush data in the EU, the US and Canada, US soybean oil stocks and biofuel use, and Saskatchewan canola cash prices.
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