Desk View — 14 October 2026: France feeds wheat as corn on hand runs short, Chicago pays for nearby soybean meal

France is short of feed grain for nearby delivery: Euronext wheat trades €23/t under corn for March delivery, so wheat goes into rations, and Bordeaux cash corn is at its strongest for the date in ten years. In Chicago, nearby soybean meal now trades over May while soybeans keep a normal carry, and US corn lands dearer than Argentine corn in each of Europe, Egypt, China and Japan. We are bullish on Euronext milling wheat, Euronext corn, CBOT soybean meal and CBOT soybean oil, bearish on CBOT corn, CBOT SRW wheat and Euronext rapeseed, and neutral on HRW wheat, soybeans and canola.

Wheat

Euronext milling wheat (bullish bias). Europe has little wheat to spare, and the pull comes from feed demand at home rather than from exports. Euronext March wheat trades €23/t under March corn, after standing €5.25/t over it on 1 June, so wheat is the cheapest feed grain in France and goes into rations in place of corn. The October USDA report puts EU ending stocks at 11.72 Mt, the third lowest in seven seasons. Cash shows no surplus: Rouen wheat trades €1.25/t under futures, against a long-run median of €3.75/t under, and EU exports reached 7.99 Mt by week 42, in line with last season's 7.96 Mt. Conviction is low because France no longer wins anywhere on a C&F basis: Argentine wheat lands $2.25/t under French wheat in Algeria and Morocco, Romanian wheat lands $6.25/t under it in Egypt, and Russia holds 19.09 Mt of wheat stocks, the largest in seven seasons (10.59 to 14.39 Mt before), waiting to be shipped.

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CBOT SRW wheat (bearish bias). US soft red winter is the dearest milling wheat at port, $24.75/t over French wheat on a FOB basis, and US sales lag even the export programme the USDA cut in October to 20.41 Mt. Sales cover 49.5% of that programme, against 49.1% to 60.1% at this week in the five previous seasons. Applied to the share of final exports sold by this week in each of those seasons, current sales point to exports under 20.41 Mt in four cases out of five. Conviction is low because nobody pays to store SRW: March trades only 14 c/bu over December, the narrowest for the date in five years (16.25 to 26.5 c/bu before), even on the smallest US wheat crop in seven seasons, 41.74 Mt against 44.8 to 54.14 Mt.

KC HRW wheat (neutral). The premium of hard red winter over soft red winter sits within its usual range, physical and futures alike. HRW sells $37/t over SRW FOB at the US Gulf, against a median of $41.50/t since October 2021, and the gap between that physical premium and the premium on the futures board is $21.20/t, against an average of $27.27/t. Protein is plentiful elsewhere: Minneapolis spring wheat trades only 24.75 c/bu over Chicago SRW, the smallest premium for the date in five years (44.8 to 142.25 c/bu before). Nothing sets HRW apart from the wider US wheat balance.

Corn

CBOT corn (bearish). The US enters the season with more corn than it can sell. The October USDA report puts 2026/27 ending stocks at 46.97 Mt, under last season's 53.22 Mt but above every season from 2020/21 to 2024/25 (31.36 to 44.79 Mt), and export sales cover only 23.3% of the programme, the smallest share at this week in six seasons (24.3% to 42.3% before). US corn is not the cheapest origin in any destination: on a C&F basis Argentine corn lands under it in Europe, Egypt, China and Japan, by $1/t to $30/t. Brazil shipped only 5.21 Mt in September, against 6.42 to 8.74 Mt in the four previous Septembers, which leaves the US Gulf a freer quarter, but the corn Brazil does not ship stays in its stocks, so the world balance is no lighter.

Euronext corn (bullish bias). Corn available now in France is paid more than ever at this date. Bordeaux cash trades €9/t over futures, the strongest for the date in ten years against a previous high of €2.25/t in 2023, and November trades €19.25/t over March, where March stood from €0.25/t under to €6.75/t over November at this date in the four previous years. The French harvest is 84% done (6% to 83% at the same week in the five previous seasons) while Ukraine's is 13% done (12% to 61%), so the feed grain France lacks is the grain it needs now. Conviction is low because imports pay: Euronext November stands $64/t over Argentine corn landed in Europe on a C&F basis, and the move rests on a contract close to expiry.

Soybeans

CBOT soybeans (neutral). The US Gulf pays up for beans: Nola cash trades $48.80/t over futures, firmer than in three of the four previous years at this date (only 2022 was firmer, at $74.40/t), even as the harvest jumped from 25% to 46% done in a week (60% to 67% at the same week in four previous seasons). Against that, Brazil still has 17.9 Mt to ship to meet Conab's export forecast, against 8.65 to 15.57 Mt at the same point in the five previous seasons, and lands beans in China $14.50/t under US beans on a C&F basis. The futures curve shows an ordinary carry, with January 16.25 c/bu over November against 9.75 to 19.75 c/bu at this date in the four previous years, so futures pay no premium for nearby beans.

CBOT soybean meal (bullish bias). The tightness is in nearby meal, not in the beans it is made from. May meal has traded under December for three sessions, $4.74/t under on 13 October against $5.73/t over on 4 September, while May soybeans stay $12.31/t over November. Cash is moving ahead of the board: Argentine meal sells FOB $32/t over the previous day's December futures, from $24/t on 1 October. Conviction is low because Argentina crushes and ships at a record pace, with 2.89 Mt of meal exported in August, the most for the month in six seasons (1.48 to 2.73 Mt before), and because EU meal imports run in line with the norm, 4.96 Mt by week 42 against a five-season average of 4.89 Mt.

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CBOT soybean oil (bullish bias). US biofuel plants use more soybean oil than the USDA balance assumes: 0.77 Mt in July, the largest month in five seasons of data against a previous high of 0.70 Mt, on a carry-in the USDA cut to 0.75 Mt from 0.83 Mt. Distillate curves are steepening again, which supports the energy parity for biodiesel: ICE gasoil November trades $168.25/t over March, from $142.75/t a session earlier. Conviction is low because the soybean oil curve stays flat, with March 0.49 c/lb over December, under 1% of the December price, so nobody pays for oil on hand.

Rapeseed and canola

Euronext rapeseed (bearish bias). In Europe, rapeseed available now sells at the price of the nearby contract: FOB France converts to €512/t, €7/t under Euronext November and €48/t under February. November itself trades €40.50/t under February, against €1.75 to €18.50/t at this date in the four previous years, so the market pays an unusually large return for storing seed, as it does in surplus years. EU crushers processed 5.6% less rapeseed in July and August than their five-season average despite a positive French crush margin, EU rapeseed imports run at 70% of their five-season average, and the EU rapeseed biodiesel margin fell from $308/t on 18 September to $213/t on 9 October. Conviction is low because September crush data are not yet published, and because the USDA puts EU ending stocks at 2.12 Mt, under last season's 2.52 Mt.

ICE canola (neutral). Canada crushes and exports above past seasons: crushers processed 1.24 Mt in August, against 0.63 to 0.87 Mt in August of the five previous seasons, and exports run at 126% of their five-season average. Against that, Saskatchewan cash trades CAD 66.60/t under futures, the weakest for the date in ten years against a previous low of CAD 58.62/t under in 2025; January pays CAD 13.30/t over November (CAD 5.10 to 15.20/t at this date in the four previous years), so the market pays to store; and the Saskatchewan harvest is 72% done against 89% to 95% at the same week in four previous seasons. The two readings offset.

What changed today

• CBOT soybean meal moves from neutral to bullish bias: May meal has now traded under December for three sessions while the soybean curve stays in carry.

To watch: the CBOT soybean meal calendar spread, Gulf and Argentine meal export premiums, weekly US export sales, US corn and soybean harvest progress, the Rouen and Bordeaux cash prices, the Euronext wheat, corn and rapeseed calendar spreads, FOB France rapeseed, wheat C&F prices in Algeria, Morocco and Egypt, Russian wheat exports and Ukrainian corn harvest and shipments, September crush data in the EU, the US and Canada, US soybean oil stocks and biofuel use, and Saskatchewan canola cash prices.