Desk View — 15 October 2026: France pays up for corn it no longer has, US corn struggles to find buyers

France is short of corn now: FranceAgriMer has cut the French crop to 6.63 Mt, the smallest in thirteen seasons, Euronext November corn trades €22.25/t over March and Bordeaux cash corn is at its strongest for the date in ten years. In the US, corn export sales cover the smallest share of the programme in six seasons, and soft red winter remains the dearest milling wheat at port. We are bullish on Euronext corn, Euronext milling wheat, CBOT soybean meal and CBOT soybean oil, bearish on CBOT corn, CBOT SRW wheat and Euronext rapeseed, and neutral on HRW wheat, soybeans and canola.

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Wheat

Euronext milling wheat (bullish bias). The EU will end the season with little wheat to spare, because the crop has been cut at each USDA report since May, from 136 Mt to 133 Mt. The October report puts EU ending stocks at 11.72 Mt, the third lowest in seven seasons. Cash shows no surplus: Rouen wheat trades €1.25/t under futures, against a long-run median of €3.75/t under, and EU exports reached 7.99 Mt by week 42, in line with last season's 7.96 Mt. Wheat is also cheaper than corn in France, with Euronext March wheat €32.75/t under March corn, which sends it into animal feed. Conviction is low because Argentine wheat lands $1.25/t under French wheat in Algeria and Morocco on a C&F basis, and Russia holds 19.09 Mt of wheat stocks, the largest in seven seasons (10.59 to 14.39 Mt before), which it has not yet shipped.

CBOT SRW wheat (bearish bias). US soft red winter has been the dearest milling wheat at port on every session for a month, between $16.25/t and $36/t over French wheat on a FOB basis, and US sales lag the USDA export programme of 20.41 Mt. Sales cover 49.5% of it, against 49.1% to 60.1% at this week in the five previous seasons. Applied to the share of final exports sold by this week in each of those seasons, current sales point to exports under 20.41 Mt in four cases out of five, which would leave more wheat in US stocks. Conviction is low because the futures curve pays little for storage, March only 13.25 c/bu over December, the narrowest for the date in five years (16.5 to 26.5 c/bu before), which is not the mark of a crowded market, and because the gap to French wheat narrowed to $16.25/t on 14 October, the narrowest of the month.

KC HRW wheat (neutral). The premium of hard red winter over soft red winter sits within its usual range, physical and futures alike. HRW sells $39.75/t over SRW FOB at the US Gulf, against a median of $41.50/t since October 2021, and the gap between that physical premium and the premium on the futures board is $24.41/t, against an average of $27.27/t. Protein is plentiful: Minneapolis spring wheat trades only 16.75 c/bu over Chicago SRW, the smallest premium for the date in five years (41.25 to 142.25 c/bu before). Nothing sets HRW apart from the wider US wheat balance.

Corn

CBOT corn (bearish). The US will end the season with more corn than it can sell. The October USDA report puts 2026/27 ending stocks at 46.97 Mt, under last season's 53.22 Mt but above every season from 2020/21 to 2024/25 (31.36 to 44.79 Mt), and export sales cover only 23.3% of the programme, the smallest share at this week in six seasons (24.3% to 42.3% before). US corn is the cheapest origin almost nowhere: on 14 October it landed in Europe $1.75/t under Argentine corn on a C&F basis, but $2.25/t over it in Egypt and $27.25/t over it in China and Japan. Brazil shipped 5.21 Mt in September, the second smallest September in six seasons (2.85 to 8.74 Mt in the five previous ones), which leaves the US Gulf a freer quarter, but the corn Brazil does not ship stays in its own stocks, so the world balance is no lighter.

Euronext corn (bullish). France is short of corn now. FranceAgriMer cut the French crop to 6.63 Mt in October, from 8.09 Mt in September, 18% in a month, and against 12.99 Mt last season. The whole physical market says the same thing. November trades €22.25/t over March, where March stood from €0.25/t under to €6.75/t over November at this date in the four previous years; French corn sells FOB €22.25/t over November; and Bordeaux cash trades €9/t over futures, the strongest for the date in ten years against a previous high of €2.25/t in 2023. Since the previous session the tension has reached March, the contract that now holds most of the open interest, which rose €11/t on 14 October. Imports are what will resolve it, since Euronext stands $58/t (March) to $83/t (November) over US corn landed in Europe on a C&F basis, but they have not yet responded: EU corn imports, 0.81 Mt by week 42, sit within the range of the five previous seasons (0.26 to 0.96 Mt), and Ukraine's harvest is only 13% done, against 12% to 61% at the same week before.

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Soybeans

CBOT soybeans (neutral). The US Gulf pays up for beans in the middle of harvest: Nola cash trades $46.44/t over futures, firmer than at this date in 2023 to 2025 ($17.28 to $29.67/t), though under 2021 and 2022 ($48.78 and $77.55/t), with the US harvest 46% done against 60% to 67% at the same week in four previous seasons. Against that, Brazil still has 17.9 Mt to ship to meet Conab's export forecast, against 8.65 to 15.57 Mt at the same point in the five previous seasons, and lands beans in China $12.25/t under US beans on a C&F basis. The futures curve shows an ordinary carry, January 14.75 c/bu over November against 9 to 19.75 c/bu at this date in the four previous years, so nobody pays for beans on hand.

CBOT soybean meal (bullish bias). The tightness is in nearby meal, not in the beans it is made from. May meal has traded under December for four sessions, by $5.30 per short ton on 14 October against $2.60 over on 1 October, while the soybean curve stays in carry. Export premiums are rising faster than the board: Argentine meal sells FOB $35/t over the previous day's December futures, from $24/t on 1 October, and US Gulf meal $67/t over December, from $59/t. Conviction is low because Argentina crushes and ships at a record pace, with 2.89 Mt of meal exported in August, the most for the month in six seasons (1.48 to 2.73 Mt before), and because EU meal imports run in line with the norm, 4.96 Mt by week 42 against a five-season average of 4.89 Mt.

CBOT soybean oil (bullish bias). US biofuel plants use more soybean oil than the USDA balance assumes: 0.77 Mt in July, the largest month in five seasons of data against a previous high of 0.70 Mt, while US soybean oil stocks stood at 0.545 Mt at the end of August, the second lowest in six seasons (0.516 to 0.71 Mt). Crude oil stays tight, which supports that outlet: Brent December trades $7.24 a barrel over March, from $6.94 a session earlier. Conviction is low because the soybean oil curve does not pay for oil on hand, with March 0.48 c/lb over December, under 1% of the price, and because CBOT December, converted to dollars per tonne, stands $255/t over Argentine soybean oil FOB, a gap wide enough to draw imports in time.

Rapeseed and canola

Euronext rapeseed (bearish bias). Europe has too much rapeseed on hand, and the curve shows it: November trades €37.25/t under February, against €1.25 to €18.50/t at this date in the four previous years, so the market pays an unusually large return for storing seed. The physical market sets that discount: FOB France converts to €514/t, €7.60/t under November and €45/t under February. EU crushers processed 5.6% less rapeseed in July and August than their five-season average although the French crush margin is positive, EU rapeseed imports run at 70% of their five-season average, and the EU rapeseed biodiesel margin fell from $308/t on 18 September to $213/t on 9 October. Conviction is low because September crush data are not yet published, and because the USDA puts EU ending stocks at 2.12 Mt, under last season's 2.52 Mt.

ICE canola (neutral). Canada crushes and exports at a strong pace: crushers processed 1.24 Mt in August, against 0.63 to 0.87 Mt in August of the five previous seasons, and exports run at 126% of their five-season average. Against that, Saskatchewan cash averaged CAD 67.31/t under futures in the first half of October, the weakest for the period in ten years against CAD 60.17/t under in 2025; January pays CAD 12.90/t over November (CAD 5.10 to 14.50/t at this date in the four previous years), so the market pays to store; and the Saskatchewan harvest is 72% done, against 89% to 95% at the same week in four previous seasons. The two readings offset.

What changed today

• Euronext corn moves from bullish bias to bullish: November has now traded far above March for three sessions (€9.50, €19.25 and €22.25/t), with Bordeaux cash and French FOB corn pointing the same way.

To watch: the Euronext corn calendar spread once November expires, Bordeaux and Rouen cash prices, EU corn imports, the Ukrainian corn harvest and shipments, FranceAgriMer balance sheets, weekly US export sales, US corn and soybean harvest progress, Gulf and Argentine meal export premiums, the CBOT soybean meal calendar spread, wheat C&F prices in Algeria and Morocco, Russian wheat exports, September crush data in the EU, the US and Canada, US soybean oil stocks and biofuel use, FOB France rapeseed, and Saskatchewan canola cash prices.