Desk View — 16 October 2026: US soybean oil stocks run low as biofuel plants keep buying, France still pays up for corn on hand

The US has little soybean oil on hand: stocks ended September at 0.478 Mt, the lowest end-September level in recent years, while US plants crushed 5.34 Mt of soybeans, close to last September's 5.38 Mt. In France, corn on hand still trades far over March delivery, while US corn and soft red winter wheat struggle to find buyers abroad. We are bullish on CBOT soybean oil, Euronext corn, Euronext milling wheat and CBOT soybean meal, bearish on CBOT corn, CBOT SRW wheat and Euronext rapeseed, and neutral on HRW wheat, soybeans and canola.

Wheat

Euronext milling wheat (bullish bias). The EU will end the season with little wheat to spare, because the crop has been cut at each USDA report since May, from 136 Mt to 133 Mt, which takes EU ending stocks to 11.72 Mt, the third lowest in seven seasons (10.70 to 18.97 Mt since 2020/21). Cash shows no surplus: Rouen wheat traded €1.25/t under futures on 12 October, against a long-run median of €3.75/t under, and Euronext March wheat stands €28.75/t under March corn, which keeps wheat in animal feed. French sellers hold their price and pay for it in lost business: FOB France wheat rose €3.17/t in euro terms on 15 October while December futures fell €2/t, and French wheat has landed above Argentine wheat in Algeria and Morocco on a C&F basis for the past three sessions, by $5.25/t on 15 October. Unsold wheat would rebuild a stock if French ports slowed, but they have not yet: French private ports loaded 0.13 Mt in week 43, against 0.15 Mt a week on average over the previous five weeks. Conviction is low because Russia holds 19.09 Mt of wheat stocks, the largest in years, which it has not yet shipped.

CBOT SRW wheat (bearish bias). US sales are too thin to reach the USDA export programme of 20.41 Mt: they cover 49.5% of it, against 49.1% to 60.1% at this week in the five previous seasons, and applied to the share of final exports sold by this week in each of those seasons, they point to exports under 20.41 Mt in four cases out of five. Soft red winter is also the dearest milling wheat at port, $16/t over French wheat FOB on 15 October and above Romanian, Argentine and Australian wheat, and too dear against US corn to go into feed, with CBOT wheat $58.01/t over CBOT corn against a long-run median of $36.30/t. With no feed outlet, wheat that is not exported adds to US stocks. Conviction is low because the futures curve does not pay more than usual for storage: March trades 14.25 c/bu over December, under its median of 18.25 c/bu for the date, which is not the mark of a crowded market.

KC HRW wheat (neutral). The premium of hard red winter over soft red winter sits within its usual range, physical and futures alike. HRW sells $40.75/t over SRW FOB at the US Gulf, against a median of $41.50/t since October 2021, and the gap between that physical premium and the premium on the futures board is $24.95/t, against an average of $27.27/t. Protein is plentiful: Minneapolis spring wheat trades only 16 c/bu over Chicago SRW, against a long-run median of 68.70 c/bu. Nothing sets HRW apart from the wider US wheat balance.

Corn

CBOT corn (bearish). The US will end the season with more corn than it can sell. The October USDA report puts 2026/27 ending stocks at 46.97 Mt, under last season's 53.22 Mt but above every season from 2020/21 to 2024/25 (31.36 to 44.79 Mt), and export sales cover 23.3% of the programme, the smallest share at this week in recent years (24.3% to 42.3% before). The futures curve pays for storage, March 13 c/bu over December against a median of 10 c/bu for the date, which is what a market with too much grain does. The one offset is thin: US corn has again been the cheapest origin outside the Black Sea landed in Europe for two sessions, but only $0.50/t under Argentine corn on a C&F basis on 15 October, and it stays dearer than Argentine corn in Egypt by $3.50/t and in China and Japan by $28.50/t.

Euronext corn (bullish). France harvested a small corn crop, 6.63 Mt according to FranceAgriMer against 12.99 Mt last season, and corn on hand is now short. French corn sells FOB €31.32/t over Euronext March, against an average of €17.15/t in September. The curve says the same: March trades €25.50/t under November, a discount well below recent seasons at this date, against a median of €4/t over at this date in past seasons, and Bordeaux cash traded €9/t over futures on 12 October, against a long-run median of €7/t under. European corn is also far dearer than US corn, with Euronext March $115.84/t over CBOT March. Imports are what will resolve the tension, since Euronext March stands $54.89/t over US corn landed in Europe on a C&F basis, but they have not yet responded: EU corn imports reached 0.81 Mt by week 42, within the range of the five previous seasons (0.26 to 0.96 Mt), and Ukraine's harvest is 13% done, against 12% to 61% at the same week before.

Explore this chart in GrainBoard →

Soybeans

CBOT soybeans (neutral). The US Gulf pays more than usual for beans, but because the US harvest is late: Nola cash traded $45.42/t over futures on 15 October, firmer than at this date in 2023 to 2025 ($13.62 to $32.42/t), though under 2021 and 2022 ($48.30 and $77.55/t), with the harvest 46% done against 60% to 67% at the same week in four previous seasons. Against that, Brazil still has 17.9 Mt to ship to meet Conab's export forecast, against 15.34 Mt at the same point last season and 8.65 to 15.57 Mt in the five previous seasons, and lands beans in China $14.50/t under US beans on a C&F basis. The futures curve does not pay for beans on hand, January 14.75 c/bu over November against a median of 12 c/bu for the date. The two forces offset.

CBOT soybean meal (bullish bias). The tightness is in nearby meal, not in the beans it is made from. May meal has traded under December for five sessions, by $3.80 per short ton on 15 October against $0.60 over on 8 October, while the soybean curve stays in carry, and US Gulf meal sells $68.60/t over December futures converted to metric tonnes, from $55.80/t on 8 October. Conviction is low because the tightness has no established cause: US plants are not short of beans, having crushed 5.34 Mt in September against 4.18 to 4.82 Mt in the four seasons before last, on a crush margin near the top of its history, and US meal export sales cover only 24.8% of the programme, against 23.4% to 32.9% at this week in the five previous seasons. Argentina caps the move, with 36.32 Mt of meal supply, the largest since 2016/17.

CBOT soybean oil (bullish). US soybean oil enters the season with little oil on hand. Stocks ended September at 0.478 Mt, the lowest end-September level in recent years (0.484 to 0.764 Mt in the five previous Septembers), after falling 0.067 Mt from August, the largest August-to-September drawdown in recent years. They equal 8.95% of the soybeans crushed in the month, against 10.0% to 18.3% in the five previous Septembers, so the low stock does not come from slow crushing. Biofuel plants use more than the USDA balance assumes: 0.77 Mt in July, the largest month in years against a previous high of 0.70 Mt in June, and crude oil stays dearer for nearby delivery, with Brent December $7.57 a barrel over March. The futures board does not yet pay for oil on hand, March only 0.37 c/lb over December, and CBOT December, converted to dollars per tonne, stands $271.90/t over Argentine soybean oil FOB, from $255.20/t a session earlier: imports are how the gap could be filled.

Explore this chart in GrainBoard →

Rapeseed and canola

Euronext rapeseed (bearish bias). France has more rapeseed on hand than it can place. FOB France rapeseed converts to €540.94/t on 15 October, €13.81/t under February futures, a deeper discount than the late October to November average of each of the four previous years once February had become the front month (from €10.18/t under in 2023 to €4.66/t over in 2022). EU crushers are not drawing in imports although crushing pays, with the French crush margin at €213.24/t: EU rapeseed imports run at 70% of their five-season average. The biodiesel outlet is weakening, with the EU rapeseed biodiesel margin down from $308/t on 18 September to $215/t on 16 October. Conviction is low because crushing still pays and September EU crush data are not yet published; the discount will be tested once February becomes the front month at the end of October.

ICE canola (neutral). Canadian crushers and exporters take more than the balance assumes: crushers processed 1.24 Mt in August, against 0.63 to 0.87 Mt in August of the five previous seasons, and exports run at 126% of their five-season average. Against that, Saskatchewan cash averaged CAD 67.26/t under futures from 1 to 15 October, well below recent seasons for the period, against CAD 59.95/t under in 2025; January pays CAD 12/t over November, against a median of CAD 7.40/t for the date, so the market pays to store; and Australian canola FOB fell from $588.50/t on 8 October to $566.50/t on 15 October as the new crop is offered. The two sides offset.

What changed today

• CBOT soybean oil moves from bullish bias to bullish: US soybean oil stocks ended September at 0.478 Mt, a multi-year low for the month, after the largest August-to-September drawdown in recent years.

To watch: US soybean oil stocks and biofuel use, the CBOT soybean oil calendar spread and the gap to Argentine soybean oil, Brent calendar spreads, the Euronext corn calendar spread once November expires, French FOB corn against March, Bordeaux and Rouen cash prices, EU corn imports, the Ukrainian corn harvest, FranceAgriMer balance sheets, wheat C&F prices in Algeria and Morocco, French port loadings, Russian wheat exports, weekly US export sales, US harvest progress, Gulf and Argentine meal export premiums, the CBOT soybean meal calendar spread, September crush data in the EU, the US and Canada, FOB France rapeseed against February, and Saskatchewan canola cash prices.