Desk View — 19 October 2026: US corn lands in Europe under Argentine corn, French export corn gives back its October rise
US corn now lands in Europe $0.50/t under Argentine corn, while French export corn, after following Euronext November futures higher, has given that rise back. We are bullish on CBOT soybean oil, Euronext corn, Euronext milling wheat and CBOT soybean meal, bearish on CBOT corn, CBOT SRW wheat and Euronext rapeseed, and neutral on HRW wheat, soybeans and canola.
Conviction board
| Product | Contract | View | In one line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milling Wheat | Euronext | Bullish bias | EU stocks among the lowest in seven seasons after a crop cut at each report since May, and firm Rouen cash. French wheat priced over Argentine wheat in North Africa and a large Russian stock hold conviction down. |
| SRW Wheat | CBOT | Bearish bias | US sales point to exports under the USDA forecast and SRW is too dear for feed. A fast-closing gap with French wheat at port holds conviction down. |
| HRW Wheat | CBOT | Neutral | The HRW premium over SRW sits at its usual level, physical and futures alike, with protein plentiful in spring wheat. |
| Corn | CBOT | Bearish bias | US ending stocks above every season from 2020/21 to 2024/25 and export sales at their smallest share of the programme in recent years. US corn now landing in Europe under Argentine corn holds conviction down. |
| Corn | Euronext | Bullish bias | A small French crop already harvested, an inverted curve and firm Bordeaux cash. Export cash that gave back its rise with November, an expiring November contract and cheap US corn landed in Europe hold conviction down. |
| Soybeans | CBOT | Neutral | A firm Gulf during a late US harvest with an export book filled early, against thin new sales and a large unshipped Brazilian surplus landed cheaper in China. |
| Soybean Meal | CBOT | Bullish bias | May meal trades under December while soybeans stay in carry, and US Gulf meal is too dear to export against Brazilian meal. A domestic squeeze that crushing will ease as the harvest comes in holds conviction down. |
| Soybean Oil | CBOT | Bullish | US stocks at their lowest end-September level in recent years, biofuel use above the USDA balance and crude oil paying for nearby delivery. The board and much cheaper Argentine oil do not yet reflect it. |
| Rapeseed | Euronext | Bearish bias | February trades far over November, French cash followed November down, EU imports run at 70% of average and the biodiesel margin falls. A crush margin that still pays holds conviction down. |
| Canola | ICE | Neutral | Strong Canadian crush and exports against Saskatchewan cash well below recent seasons for early October and a carry that pays for storage. |
US corn now lands in Europe $0.50/t under Argentine corn, after carrying a premium of $22/t over it on 7 September, while French export corn, which followed Euronext November corn higher in mid-October, has given that rise back. We are bullish on CBOT soybean oil, Euronext corn, Euronext milling wheat and CBOT soybean meal, bearish on CBOT corn, CBOT SRW wheat and Euronext rapeseed, and neutral on HRW wheat, soybeans and canola.
Wheat
Euronext milling wheat (bullish bias). The EU will end the season with little wheat to spare, because the crop has been cut at each USDA report since May, from 136 Mt to 133 Mt, which takes EU ending stocks to 11.72 Mt, the third lowest in seven seasons (10.70 to 18.97 Mt since 2020/21). Cash shows no surplus: Rouen wheat traded €1.25/t under futures on 12 October, against a long-run median of €3.75/t under. French sellers hold their price while the board falls: between 14 and 16 October, FOB France wheat rose €3.29/t in euro terms while December futures fell €4.50/t, leaving the FOB €1/t under December, its firmest since 14 September (€2.20/t over). The cost is lost business: French wheat has landed above Argentine wheat in Algeria and Morocco on a C&F basis for four sessions, by $5.25/t on 16 October, and wheat that does not leave French ports would rebuild a stock. Conviction is low for that reason, and because Russia holds 19.09 Mt of wheat stocks, the largest in years.
CBOT SRW wheat (bearish bias). The US is not selling its soft red winter wheat. Export sales cover 51.1% of the USDA programme of 20.41 Mt, against 52.5% to 62.6% at the same week in the five previous seasons, the smallest share in recent years; applied to the share of final exports sold by this week in each of those seasons, they point to exports of 16.7 to 19.9 Mt, all under the programme. Wheat cannot go into feed instead, with CBOT wheat $55.99/t over CBOT corn against a long-run median of $36.31/t. Conviction is low because the gap with French wheat is closing fast: US Gulf SRW sold $8.50/t over French wheat FOB on 16 October, from $16/t on 15 October and $25/t on 9 October, so US wheat is becoming saleable again. The futures curve also tempers the bearish reading: March trades 14.50 c/bu over December, under its median of 18.25 c/bu for the date, a smaller storage premium than usual that points to some tightness rather than a glut.
KC HRW wheat (neutral). Hard red winter follows the US wheat balance without a story of its own. HRW sells $41.50/t over SRW FOB at the US Gulf, exactly its median since October 2021, and the gap between that physical premium and the premium on the futures board is $25.52/t, against an average of $27.26/t. Protein is plentiful: Minneapolis spring wheat trades only 16 c/bu over Chicago SRW, against a long-run median of 68.70 c/bu. Nothing pulls a premium of its own into HRW.
Corn
CBOT corn (bearish bias). The US will end the season with more corn than it can sell. The October USDA report puts 2026/27 ending stocks at 46.97 Mt, under last season's 53.22 Mt but above every season from 2020/21 to 2024/25 (31.36 to 44.79 Mt), and export sales cover 24.7% of the programme, against 27.4% to 44.0% at the same week in the five previous seasons, the smallest share in recent years. It sold 1.13 Mt in the latest week, 84% of the weekly pace the programme now requires. The futures curve pays for storage, March 12.25 c/bu over December against a median of 10 c/bu for the date. Conviction is low because buyers are starting to come for US corn: it has landed in Europe under Argentine corn for three sessions in a row, by $0.50/t on 16 October, although it remains the dearest of the three American origins at port (US Gulf FOB $225.50/t, against $220.50/t for Brazil and $213/t for Argentina) and stays dearer than Argentine corn in Egypt by $3.50/t and in China and Japan by $28.50/t.
Euronext corn (bullish bias). France is short of corn on hand, because its crop is small and already harvested: FranceAgriMer puts it at 6.63 Mt against 12.99 Mt last season, with the harvest 92% done, and ending stocks at 1.13 Mt against 1.97 Mt. The curve is inverted far beyond the usual: March trades €21.25/t under November, well below recent seasons at this date, against a median of €4/t over, and Bordeaux cash traded €9/t over futures on 12 October, the firmest for the date in recent years, against a long-run median of €7/t under. Conviction is low because that discount is now carried by November, a contract that is emptying, with open interest down to 5,653 contracts on 15 October from 14,508 on 25 September, against 23,473 on March. Physical corn followed November up and then gave the rise back: FOB France corn, in euro terms, rose from €296.58/t on 12 October to €325.25/t on 14 October, moving from €19.58/t to €22.25/t over November, then fell to €306.73/t on 15 October when its quoted shipment period moved later. On that new period it eased faster than the board on 16 October, down €11.47/t to €295.26/t while March lost €4.50/t. Imports will end the shortage, since US corn landed in Europe on a C&F basis stands $51.28/t under Euronext March and $75.15/t under November, converted to dollars.
Soybeans
CBOT soybeans (neutral). Two forces offset. The US Gulf is firm because the US harvest is late and the export book was filled early: Nola cash traded $42.57/t over futures on 16 October, against a long-run median of $27.69/t, with the harvest 46% done against 60% to 67% at the same week in four previous seasons, and export sales already cover 50.6% of the programme, more than in every recent season except 2022/23 (52.3%). Against that, new sales have dried up, at 0.57 Mt in the latest week against 0.73 to 1.71 Mt at the same week in the five previous seasons, and Brazil still has 17.90 Mt to ship to meet Conab's export forecast, against 15.34 Mt at the same point last season, landing beans in China $14/t under US beans on a C&F basis. The futures curve carries an ordinary storage premium, January 14.50 c/bu over November against a median of 12.25 c/bu for the date.
CBOT soybean meal (bullish bias). Nearby meal is short in the US, while the beans it is made from are not. May meal has traded under December for six sessions, by $4 per short ton on 16 October against $0.60 over on 8 October, while the soybean curve stays in carry. The tightness is domestic: US Gulf meal sells $64.37/t over December futures converted to metric tonnes, which leaves it $45.75/t over Brazilian meal, and US meal export sales cover only 26.6% of the programme, against 27.5% to 34.9% at this week in the five previous seasons. Conviction is low because crushing will close the gap as the harvest comes in: US plants crushed 5.34 Mt of soybeans in September, close to last September's 5.38 Mt and above 4.18 to 4.82 Mt in the four seasons before, on a crush margin near the top of its history.
CBOT soybean oil (bullish). US soybean oil enters the season with little oil on hand. Stocks ended September at 0.478 Mt, the lowest end-September level in recent years (0.484 to 0.764 Mt in the five previous Septembers), and they equal 8.95% of the soybeans crushed in the month, against 10.0% to 18.3% in the five previous Septembers, so the low stock does not come from slow crushing. Biofuel plants use more than the USDA balance assumes, 0.77 Mt in July after 0.70 Mt in June, and crude oil pays more for nearby delivery, with Brent December $8.43 a barrel over March on 16 October, from $6.94 on 13 October. The futures board does not yet pay for oil on hand: March trades only 0.37 c/lb over December, and CBOT December, converted to dollars per tonne, stands $271.21/t over Argentine soybean oil FOB.
Rapeseed and canola
Euronext rapeseed (bearish bias). The European market pays a high price not to take nearby rapeseed. February trades €50.25/t over November, against €1.25 to €6/t for the middle half of past seasons at this date, and French cash has gone with the nearby contract: FOB France rapeseed, in euro terms, fell €40.67/t from 28 September to 12 October, while November futures fell €19.50/t and February rose €4/t, before its quoted delivery period moved later on 15 October. Demand is soft: EU rapeseed imports run at 70% of their five-season average, EU crushers processed 2.97 Mt in July and August, 5.6% under the five-season average of 3.15 Mt, and the EU rapeseed biodiesel margin fell from $308/t on 18 September to $212/t on 16 October, down by almost a third. USDA puts EU ending stocks at 2.12 Mt, the third largest in nine seasons. Conviction is low because crushing still pays, with the French crush margin at €213.24/t.
ICE canola (neutral). Canadian crushers and exporters take more than the balance assumes: crushers processed 1.24 Mt in August, against 0.63 to 0.87 Mt in August of the five previous seasons, and exports run at 117% of their five-season average. Against that, the late harvest weighs on the farm: Saskatchewan cash averaged CAD 67.22/t under futures from 1 to 16 October, well below recent seasons for the period, against CAD 59.77/t under in 2025, and January pays CAD 12.80/t over November, against a median of CAD 7.40/t for the date, so the market pays to store. The two sides offset.
What changed today
- CBOT corn moves from bearish to bearish bias: US corn has landed in Europe under Argentine corn for three sessions in a row.
- Euronext corn moves from bullish to bullish bias: French export corn followed November up and then gave that rise back, and the discount of March to November is carried by the expiring November contract.
To watch: C&F corn prices in Europe, Egypt and Asia by origin, weekly US export sales, the Euronext corn calendar spread once November expires, FOB France corn against March, Bordeaux and Rouen cash prices, EU corn imports, wheat C&F prices in Algeria and Morocco, French port loadings, Russian wheat exports, US Gulf SRW against French wheat FOB, the CBOT soybean meal calendar spread and Gulf meal premiums, US soybean oil stocks and biofuel use, Brent calendar spreads, September crush data in the EU and Canada, FOB France rapeseed against February, and Saskatchewan canola cash prices.
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