Desk View — 20 October 2026: Euronext pays for corn now and pays to store rapeseed
On Euronext, March corn trades €22.75/t under November while February rapeseed trades €53.25/t over November. We are bullish on Euronext milling wheat, Euronext corn, CBOT soybean meal and CBOT soybean oil, bearish on CBOT SRW wheat, CBOT corn and Euronext rapeseed, and neutral on HRW wheat, soybeans and canola.
Conviction board
| Product | Contract | View | In one line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milling Wheat | Euronext | Bullish bias | EU stocks among the lowest in seven seasons after a crop cut at each report since May, and firm Rouen cash. French ports loading below their usual pace and French wheat only at parity with Argentine wheat in North Africa hold conviction down. |
| SRW Wheat | CBOT | Bearish bias | US sales point to exports under the USDA forecast, and SRW is too dear both to export against French wheat and to feed against corn. A futures curve that does not yet pay for unusual storage holds conviction down. |
| HRW Wheat | CBOT | Neutral | The HRW premium over SRW sits within its usual range, physical and futures alike, with protein plentiful in spring wheat. |
| Corn | CBOT | Bearish bias | US ending stocks above every season from 2020/21 to 2024/25, the smallest share of the export programme sold in recent years, a curve that pays to store and the dearest origin at port. A crop estimate on a partial harvest holds conviction down. |
| Corn | Euronext | Bullish bias | The whole old-crop curve is inverted on a small French crop already harvested and much lower ending stocks. Bordeaux cash that has not followed and cheaper imported corn hold conviction down. |
| Soybeans | CBOT | Neutral | A firm US Gulf before the harvest is in and fast Chinese crushing, against thin new US sales, a large unshipped Brazilian surplus and an ordinary carry. |
| Soybean Meal | CBOT | Bullish bias | May meal trades under December while soybeans stay in carry, and US meal is too dear to export against Brazilian meal. Crushing that rises as the harvest advances holds conviction down. |
| Soybean Oil | CBOT | Bullish bias | Biofuel use above the USDA balance and crude oil paying for nearby delivery. US stocks at their September 2024 level, a carry on the curve and a wide premium over Argentine oil hold conviction down. |
| Rapeseed | Euronext | Bearish bias | February trades far over November and May over February: Europe has too much rapeseed for nearby delivery, after a soft summer crush. A high crush margin holds conviction down. |
| Canola | ICE | Neutral | Strong Canadian crush and exports against Saskatchewan cash well below recent seasons for October and a carry that pays to store. |
On Euronext, buyers pay to get corn now and holders are paid to keep rapeseed. The old-crop corn curve is inverted from November to June, with March €22.75/t under November and June €4.25/t under March, while February rapeseed trades €53.25/t over November. We are bullish on Euronext milling wheat, Euronext corn, CBOT soybean meal and CBOT soybean oil, bearish on CBOT SRW wheat, CBOT corn and Euronext rapeseed, and neutral on KC HRW wheat, CBOT soybeans and ICE canola.
Wheat
Euronext milling wheat (bullish bias). The EU will end the season with little wheat to spare, because the crop has been cut at each USDA report since May, from 136 Mt to 133 Mt, which takes EU ending stocks to 11.72 Mt, the third lowest in seven seasons (10.70 to 18.97 Mt since 2020/21). Cash shows no surplus: Rouen wheat traded €1/t under futures on 19 October, against a long-run median of €3.75/t under. What is missing is the outlet. French ports loaded 0.13 Mt of wheat in the latest week, 75% of the average for that week in the five previous seasons, and French wheat only matches Argentine wheat in North Africa without taking the market: on 19 October it landed in Algeria and Morocco $0.75/t under Argentine wheat on a C&F basis, after $5.25/t over on 16 October. Conviction is low until that business shows up in French loadings.
CBOT SRW wheat (bearish bias). The US is not selling its soft red winter wheat. Export sales cover 51.1% of the USDA programme of 20.41 Mt, against 52.5% to 62.6% at the same week in the five previous seasons; applied to the share of final exports sold by this week in each of those seasons, they point to exports of 16.7 to 19.9 Mt, all under the programme. SRW has no other way out. It is too dear to export, with US Gulf SRW $15.25/t over French wheat FOB on 19 October, and too dear to feed, with CBOT wheat $56.92/t over CBOT corn against a long-run median of $36.34/t. Conviction is low because the futures curve does not yet pay for unusual storage: March trades 14.75 c/bu over December, under its median of 18 c/bu for the date.
KC HRW wheat (neutral). Hard red winter follows the US wheat balance without a story of its own. HRW sells $38/t over SRW FOB at the US Gulf, against a median of $41.50/t over the past five years, and the gap between that physical premium and the premium on the futures board is $21.74/t, against an average of $27.26/t. Protein is plentiful: Minneapolis spring wheat trades only 14.75 c/bu over Chicago SRW, against a long-run median of 68.50 c/bu. Nothing pulls a premium of its own into HRW.
Corn
CBOT corn (bearish bias). The US will end the season with more corn than it can sell. The October USDA report puts 2026/27 ending stocks at 46.97 Mt, under last season's 53.22 Mt but above every season from 2020/21 to 2024/25 (31.36 to 44.79 Mt). Export sales cover 24.7% of the programme, against 27.4% to 44.0% at the same week in the five previous seasons, the smallest share in recent years, and the 1.13 Mt sold in the latest week is 84% of the weekly pace the programme now requires. The market pays to store, with March 13.50 c/bu over December against a median of 9.75 c/bu for the date, and US corn is the dearest of the three American origins at port: US Gulf FOB $225/t, against $220/t for Brazil and $212.25/t for Argentina. Conviction is low because the US crop is still estimated on a harvest under way.
Euronext corn (bullish bias). The market pays everywhere along the curve to have French corn early. The whole old-crop curve is inverted, not only the expiring November: March trades €22.75/t under November, against a median of €3.50/t over for the date, and June trades €4.25/t under March, against a median of €3/t over once November has expired, both well below recent seasons. The reason is a small French crop that is already harvested: FranceAgriMer puts it at 6.63 Mt against 12.99 Mt last season, and ending stocks at 1.13 Mt against 1.97 Mt. Conviction is low because cash has not followed and imports stay open. Bordeaux cash, last priced on 14 October, stood €14.50/t under November, against €9/t over on 12 October, so it pays only €7.75/t over March. And US corn landed in Europe on a C&F basis costs $49.69/t less than Euronext March converted to dollars.
Soybeans
CBOT soybeans (neutral). Two forces offset. The US Gulf is short of beans on hand until the harvest is in, with Nola cash at $48.91/t over futures on 19 October against a long-run median of $27.70/t, and China crushes fast, 84.05 Mt of soybeans since the start of its season against 82.26 Mt at the same week last season. Against that, new US sales are thin, at 0.57 Mt in the latest week against 0.73 to 1.71 Mt at the same week in the five previous seasons, Brazil still has 17.90 Mt to ship to meet Conab's export forecast, against 15.34 Mt at the same point last season, and the futures curve carries an ordinary storage premium, January 15.25 c/bu over November against a median of 11.75 c/bu for the date.
CBOT soybean meal (bullish bias). Nearby meal is short in the US, while the beans it is made from are not. May meal has traded under December for seven sessions, by $3.40 per short ton on 19 October against $0.60 over on 8 October, while the soybean curve stays in carry. The tightness is domestic and only US crushing can ease it, because US meal is too dear to export: Gulf meal sells $40.50/t over Brazilian meal. Conviction is low because crushing will ease it as the harvest advances, on a crush margin near the top of its history; the US soybean harvest was 64% done in the latest week, against 73% to 81% at the same week in four previous seasons.
CBOT soybean oil (bullish bias). Demand pulls on US soybean oil. Biofuel plants used 0.77 Mt in July, after 0.70 Mt in June, more than the USDA balance assumes, and crude oil pays more for nearby delivery, with Brent December $8.65 a barrel over March on 19 October, from $6.94 on 13 October. Stocks are low, but not in a way specific to this season: they ended September at 0.478 Mt, the level of September 2024 (0.484 Mt), continuing a decline from 0.764 Mt in September 2021 that only 2025 interrupted (0.564 Mt). The market does not yet pay for oil on hand: March trades 0.36 c/lb over December, and CBOT December, converted to dollars per tonne, stands $268.01/t over Argentine soybean oil FOB. Conviction is low for that reason.
Rapeseed and canola
Euronext rapeseed (bearish bias). Europe has too much rapeseed for nearby delivery. February trades €53.25/t over November, against €1.25 to €6/t for the middle half of past seasons at this date, and May trades €5/t over February, against a median of €1.25/t under once November has expired, a second spread that owes nothing to the expiring contract. Summer crushing stayed soft: EU crushers processed 2.97 Mt in July and August, 5.6% under the five-season average of 3.15 Mt, and USDA puts EU ending stocks at 2.12 Mt, the third largest in nine seasons. Conviction is low because the crush margin is high, at €225.50/t in France, near the top of its history: if crushers take the seed, the surplus clears.
ICE canola (neutral). Canadian crushers and exporters take more than the balance assumes: crushers processed 1.24 Mt in August, against 0.63 to 0.87 Mt in August of the five previous seasons, and exports run at 117% of their five-season average. Against that, Prairie farmers sell at a deep discount: Saskatchewan cash averaged CAD 67.21/t under futures from 1 to 19 October, well below recent seasons for the period, against CAD 59.47/t under in 2025, and January pays CAD 13.20/t over November, against a median of CAD 7.40/t for the date, so the market pays to store. The two sides offset.
What changed today
- CBOT soybean oil moves from bullish to bullish bias: US stocks ended September at the level of September 2024 and extend a decline of several years, and the futures curve stays in carry.
To watch: French port loadings, wheat C&F prices in Algeria and Morocco by origin, Rouen and Bordeaux cash prices, weekly US export sales, US Gulf SRW against French wheat FOB, the November USDA balance for US corn, the Euronext corn and rapeseed calendar spreads once November expires, EU corn imports, FOB France rapeseed against February, September crush in the EU and Canada, the CBOT soybean meal calendar spread and Gulf meal premiums, Nola soybean cash, US soybean oil stocks and biofuel use, Brent calendar spreads, and Saskatchewan canola cash prices.
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