Desk View — 21 October 2026: The EU pulls in imported corn to cover a small French crop, US wheat and corn struggle to find buyers
EU corn imports run 39% above their five-season average as US and Argentine corn land in Europe well under Euronext, while US wheat and corn sales lag their export programmes. We are bullish on Euronext milling wheat, Euronext corn and CBOT soybean oil, bearish on CBOT SRW wheat, CBOT corn and Euronext rapeseed, and neutral on HRW wheat, soybeans, soybean meal and canola.
Conviction board
| Product | Contract | View | In one line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milling Wheat | Euronext | Bullish bias | EU stocks among the lowest in seven seasons after a crop cut at each report since August, firm Rouen cash, no carry and wheat cheaper than corn. EU exports below their usual pace hold conviction down. |
| SRW Wheat | CBOT | Bearish bias | US sales point to exports under the USDA forecast, US wheat wins no destination and is too dear to feed against corn. A futures curve that does not yet pay for unusual storage holds conviction down. |
| HRW Wheat | CBOT | Neutral | The HRW premium over SRW sits within its usual range, physical and futures alike, with protein plentiful in spring wheat. |
| Corn | CBOT | Bearish bias | The smallest share of the export programme sold in recent years, the dearest origin at port and a curve that pays to store before the harvest is in. Ending stocks within their usual range against use hold conviction down. |
| Corn | Euronext | Bullish bias | The whole old-crop curve is inverted on a small French crop already harvested and much lower ending stocks. Fast EU imports of cheaper US and Argentine corn hold conviction down. |
| Soybeans | CBOT | Neutral | A firm US Gulf and fast Chinese crushing, against thin new US sales, US beans dearer than Brazilian in China, a large unshipped Brazilian surplus and an ordinary carry. |
| Soybean Meal | CBOT | Neutral | The inversion of the futures curve has nearly closed and the US Gulf premium sits in the middle of recent years, while larger US output goes to export with stocks unchanged. |
| Soybean Oil | CBOT | Bullish bias | Biofuel use above the USDA balance, crude oil paying more for nearby delivery and low opening stocks. A carry on the curve and a wide premium over Argentine oil hold conviction down. |
| Rapeseed | Euronext | Bearish bias | The market pays to store from February to May, cash slips against February and summer crush was soft: Europe has too much rapeseed now. A high crush margin holds conviction down. |
| Canola | ICE | Neutral | Strong Canadian crush and exports against Saskatchewan cash well below recent seasons for October and a carry that pays to store. |
The EU is pulling in imported corn to make up for a small French crop: EU corn imports reached 1.45 Mt in the first three weeks of the season, 39% above the five-season average, as US and Argentine corn land in Europe $54.84 to $56.09/t under Euronext March. In the US, wheat and corn struggle to find buyers. We are bullish on Euronext milling wheat, Euronext corn and CBOT soybean oil, bearish on CBOT SRW wheat, CBOT corn and Euronext rapeseed, and neutral on KC HRW wheat, CBOT soybeans, CBOT soybean meal and ICE canola.
Wheat
Euronext milling wheat (bullish bias). The EU will end the season with little wheat to spare, because the crop has been cut at each USDA report since August, from 136 Mt to 133 Mt, which takes EU ending stocks to 11.72 Mt, the third lowest in seven seasons (10.70 to 18.97 Mt since 2020/21). French cash shows no surplus. Rouen wheat traded €1/t under futures on 19 October, against a long-run median of €3.75/t under, and the market does not pay to store: Euronext March trades €0.50/t under December, against a median of €3.25/t over for the date. Wheat is also cheap enough to take a place in feed rations, with March wheat €30.75/t under March corn, where wheat usually trades over corn (median €10.50/t over for the nearby contracts). Conviction is low because the demand holding French cash is domestic, not foreign: EU wheat exports reached 8.47 Mt, 87% of the five-season average of 9.73 Mt at the same week.
CBOT SRW wheat (bearish bias). US wheat is looking for buyers. Export sales cover 51.1% of the USDA programme of 20.41 Mt, against 52.5% to 62.6% at the same week in the five previous seasons; applied to the share of final exports sold by this week in each of those seasons, they point to exports of 16.7 to 19.9 Mt, all under the programme. US wheat wins no destination: on a C&F basis it lands $56 to $61/t above French wheat in Algeria, Morocco and Egypt, and US Gulf SRW sells $8.75/t over French wheat FOB. It is also too dear to feed, with CBOT wheat $54.48/t over CBOT corn against a long-run median of $36.36/t. Conviction is low because the futures curve does not yet pay for unusual storage: March trades 15.25 c/bu over December, under its median of 18 c/bu for the date.
KC HRW wheat (neutral). Hard red winter follows the US wheat balance without a story of its own. HRW sells $38.25/t over SRW FOB at the US Gulf, against a median of $41.50/t over the past five years, and the gap between that physical premium and the premium on the futures board is $20.70/t, against an average of $27.21/t. Protein is plentiful: Minneapolis spring wheat trades only 18.50 c/bu over Chicago SRW, against a long-run median of 68.25 c/bu. Nothing pulls a premium of its own into HRW.
Corn
CBOT corn (bearish bias). US corn is short of buyers, and the problem lies in demand, not in harvest pressure. Export sales cover 24.7% of the USDA programme, against 27.4% to 44.0% at the same week in the five previous seasons, the smallest share in recent years, and US corn is the dearest of the three American origins at port: US Gulf FOB $221.25/t, against $216.75/t for Brazil and $209.50/t for Argentina. The market pays to store, with March 14 c/bu over December against a median of 9.75 c/bu for the date, although the US corn harvest was only 44% done in the latest week, against 59% to 66% at the same week in four previous seasons. Conviction is low because the balance itself is not loose: ending stocks of 46.97 Mt equal 11.3% of annual use and exports, within the 8.3% to 12.7% range of the six previous seasons.
Euronext corn (bullish bias). The market pays everywhere along the old-crop curve to have French corn early, because the French crop is small and already harvested: FranceAgriMer puts it at 6.63 Mt against 12.99 Mt last season, and ending stocks at 1.13 Mt against 1.97 Mt. March trades €23/t under November, against a median of €3.50/t over for the date, and June trades €3.75/t under March, against a median of €3/t over once November has expired, both well below recent seasons. Conviction is low because the shortage is being filled. EU corn imports reached 1.45 Mt in the first three weeks of the season, 39% above the five-season average of 1.04 Mt, a pace only 2022/23 beat, at 1.62 Mt, because imported corn is cheap: on a C&F basis, US and Argentine corn land in Europe $54.84 to $56.09/t under Euronext March converted to dollars, and Brazilian corn $51.59/t under. Cash has not followed the futures either: Bordeaux, last priced on 14 October, stood €14.50/t under November, against €9/t over on 12 October.
Soybeans
CBOT soybeans (neutral). Two forces offset. The US Gulf pays up for beans on hand, with Nola cash at $45.84/t over futures on 20 October against a long-run median of $27.71/t, and China crushes fast, 84.05 Mt of soybeans since the start of its season against 82.26 Mt at the same week last season. Against that, new US sales are thin, at 0.57 Mt in the latest week against 0.73 to 1.71 Mt at the same week in the five previous seasons, because US soybeans land in China $14.50/t above Brazilian soybeans on a C&F basis, and Brazil still has 17.90 Mt to ship to meet Conab's export forecast, against 15.34 Mt at the same point last season. The futures curve carries an ordinary storage premium, January 15.25 c/bu over November against a median of 11.75 c/bu for the date.
CBOT soybean meal (neutral). The shortage of nearby meal has eased. May meal traded $0.60 per short ton under December on 20 October, from $3.40 under on 19 October and $7 under on 12 October, so the inversion of the curve has nearly closed. The physical premium is ordinary: US Gulf meal FOB averaged $67.60/t over CBOT meal from 14 October to 20 October, below $118.40/t in 2022 and $73.30/t in 2024, above $32.60/t in 2023 and $25.50/t in 2025. US crushers run hard for oil, and the meal finds buyers: USDA puts US meal output at 59.69 Mt, the largest in years, against 57.07 Mt last season, exports at 20.59 Mt against 18.60 Mt, and ending stocks at 0.408 Mt, the same as opening stocks. Nothing points to a surplus or a shortage.
CBOT soybean oil (bullish bias). Demand pulls on US soybean oil. Biofuel plants used 0.77 Mt in July, after 0.70 Mt in June, more than the USDA balance assumes, and crude oil pays more and more for nearby delivery, with Brent December $9.53 a barrel over March on 20 October, from $6.94 on 13 October. Stocks start the season low: they ended September at 0.478 Mt, against 0.564 Mt in September 2025 and 0.484 Mt in September 2024. Conviction is low because the soybean oil market does not yet pay for oil on hand: March trades 0.39 c/lb over December, and CBOT December, converted to dollars per tonne, stands $258.14/t over Argentine soybean oil FOB.
Rapeseed and canola
Euronext rapeseed (bearish bias). Europe has too much rapeseed now. After an extreme carry on the expiring November contract, the market still pays to store from February to May: May trades €4/t over February, against a median of €1.25/t under and an upper quartile of €0 once November has expired, which it does not usually do after harvest. Both cash quotes slip against February, with French rapeseed FOB €15.38/t under February and Rouen cash €6/t under. Crushers have not taken the surplus: EU crushers processed 2.97 Mt in July and August, 5.6% under the five-season average of 3.15 Mt, and USDA puts EU ending stocks at 2.12 Mt, the third largest in nine seasons. Conviction is low because the crush margin is high, at €225.50/t in France, near the top of its history: if crushers take the seed, the surplus clears.
ICE canola (neutral). Canadian crushers and exporters take more than the balance assumes: crushers processed 1.24 Mt in August, against 0.63 to 0.87 Mt in August of the five previous seasons, and exports run at 117% of their five-season average. Against that, Prairie farmers sell at a deep discount: Saskatchewan cash averaged CAD 66.98/t under futures from 1 October to 20 October, well below recent seasons for the period, against CAD 59.20/t under in 2025, and January pays CAD 12.90/t over November, against a median of CAD 7.40/t for the date, so the market pays to store while the harvest catches up. The two sides offset.
What changed today
- CBOT soybean meal moves from bullish bias to neutral: the inversion of the futures curve has nearly closed and the US Gulf meal premium is in the middle of recent years, while the largest US meal output in years is absorbed by exports with stocks unchanged.
To watch: EU wheat exports and corn imports, Rouen and Bordeaux cash prices, the EU wheat balance in the next USDA report, weekly US export sales, wheat C&F prices in North Africa by origin, the CBOT wheat and corn calendar spreads, the November USDA balance for US corn, the Euronext corn calendar spreads once November expires, US soybean C&F prices in China against Brazil, Nola soybean cash, the CBOT soybean meal calendar spread and Gulf meal premiums, US crush, US soybean oil stocks and biofuel use, Brent calendar spreads, FOB France rapeseed against February, September crush in the EU and Canada, and Saskatchewan canola cash prices.
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