Desk View — 22 October 2026: US soybeans find buyers at home and abroad, France still pays for corn on hand
US soybean export sales cover 50.6% of the USDA programme and US crushers run close to last year's September pace, while the Euronext corn curve stays inverted on a small French crop. We are bullish on Euronext milling wheat, Euronext corn, CBOT soybeans and CBOT soybean oil, bearish on CBOT SRW wheat, CBOT corn and Euronext rapeseed, and neutral on HRW wheat, soybean meal and canola.
Conviction board
| Product | Contract | View | In one line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milling Wheat | Euronext | Bullish bias | EU stocks among the lowest in seven seasons after a crop cut at each report since August, firm Rouen cash, no carry and wheat cheaper than corn. EU exports below their usual pace hold conviction down. |
| SRW Wheat | CBOT | Bearish bias | US sales point to exports under the USDA forecast and US wheat is too dear to feed against corn. A narrow gap over French wheat and a curve that does not pay for unusual storage hold conviction down. |
| HRW Wheat | CBOT | Neutral | The HRW premium over SRW sits within its usual range, physical and futures alike, with protein plentiful in spring wheat. |
| Corn | CBOT | Bearish bias | The smallest share of the export programme sold in recent years, the dearest origin at port and a curve that pays to store before the harvest is in. Ending stocks within their usual range against use hold conviction down. |
| Corn | Euronext | Bullish bias | The whole old-crop curve is inverted on a small French crop already harvested and much lower ending stocks. Fast EU imports of cheaper US and Argentine corn hold conviction down. |
| Soybeans | CBOT | Bullish bias | US export sales ahead of their usual pace, strong crushing on a high margin and a firm US Gulf. US beans dearer than Brazilian in China and an ordinary carry hold conviction down. |
| Soybean Meal | CBOT | Neutral | Larger US meal output goes to export with stocks unchanged, the US Gulf premium sits in the middle of recent years and the curve shows neither tension nor surplus. |
| Soybean Oil | CBOT | Bullish bias | Biofuel use above the USDA balance, crude oil paying more for nearby delivery and low opening stocks. A carry on the curve and a wide premium over Argentine oil hold conviction down. |
| Rapeseed | Euronext | Bearish bias | The market pays to store from February to May, cash trades under February and crushers take EU seed only at a normal pace on a larger crop. A high crush margin and cheap rapeseed oil hold conviction down. |
| Canola | ICE | Neutral | Strong Canadian crush and exports against Saskatchewan cash well below recent seasons for October and a carry that pays to store. |
US soybeans are finding buyers at home and abroad: export sales already cover 50.6% of the USDA programme, and US crushers processed 5.34 Mt in September, close to last year's pace. In France, the market still pays for corn on hand, with Euronext June trading €3.50/t under March. We are bullish on Euronext milling wheat, Euronext corn, CBOT soybeans and CBOT soybean oil, bearish on CBOT SRW wheat, CBOT corn and Euronext rapeseed, and neutral on KC HRW wheat, CBOT soybean meal and ICE canola.
Wheat
Euronext milling wheat (bullish bias). The EU will end the season with little wheat to spare, because the crop has been cut at each USDA report since August, from 136 Mt to 133 Mt, which takes EU ending stocks to 11.72 Mt, the third lowest in seven seasons (10.70 to 18.97 Mt since 2020/21). French cash shows no surplus. Rouen wheat traded €1/t under futures on 19 October, against a long-run median of €3.75/t under, and the market does not pay to store: Euronext March trades €0.25/t under December, against a median of €3.25/t over for the date. Wheat is also cheap enough to take a place in feed rations, with March wheat €36/t under March corn, where wheat usually trades over corn (median €10.50/t over for the nearby contracts). Conviction is low because foreign demand is not pulling: EU wheat exports reached 8.47 Mt, 87% of the five-season average of 9.73 Mt at the same week, even though French wheat lands in Algeria and Morocco level with or just under Argentine wheat, and under Russian wheat.
CBOT SRW wheat (bearish bias). US wheat is looking for buyers. Export sales cover 51.1% of the USDA programme of 20.41 Mt, against 52.5% to 62.6% at the same week in the five previous seasons; applied to the share of final exports sold by this week in each of those seasons, they point to exports of 16.7 to 19.9 Mt, all under the programme. US Gulf SRW sells $19.75/t over Argentine wheat FOB, and it is too dear to feed, with CBOT wheat $48.47/t over CBOT corn against a long-run median of $36.40/t. Conviction is low because SRW now sells only $9.75/t over French wheat FOB, and because the futures curve does not pay for unusual storage: March trades 14.50 c/bu over December, under its median of 17.88 c/bu for the date.
KC HRW wheat (neutral). Hard red winter follows the US wheat balance without a story of its own. HRW sells $36.50/t over SRW FOB at the US Gulf, against a median of $42.25/t over the past five years, and the gap between that physical premium and the premium on the futures board is $20.06/t, against a median of $26.49/t over the same five years. Protein is plentiful: Minneapolis spring wheat trades only 23.25 c/bu over Chicago SRW, against a long-run median of 68.25 c/bu. Nothing pulls a premium of its own into HRW.
Corn
CBOT corn (bearish bias). US corn is short of buyers, and the problem lies in demand, not in harvest pressure. Export sales cover 24.7% of the USDA programme, against 27.4% to 44.0% at the same week in the five previous seasons, the smallest share in recent years, and US corn is the dearest of the three American origins at port: US Gulf FOB $223.25/t, against $217.50/t for Brazil and $210.25/t for Argentina. The market pays to store, with March 14 c/bu over December against a median of 9.75 c/bu for the date, although the US corn harvest was only 44% done in the latest week, against 59% to 66% at the same week in four previous seasons. Conviction is low because the balance itself is not loose: ending stocks of 46.97 Mt equal 11.3% of annual use and exports, within the 8.3% to 12.7% range of the six previous seasons.
Euronext corn (bullish bias). The market pays all along the old-crop curve to have French corn early, because the French crop is small and already harvested: FranceAgriMer puts it at 6.63 Mt against 12.99 Mt last season, and ending stocks at 1.13 Mt against 1.97 Mt. March trades €22.75/t under November, against a median of €3.75/t over for the date, and June trades €3.50/t under March, against a median of €3/t over once November has expired, both well below recent seasons. French export corn is still priced off the nearby contract, at €8.24/t over November. Conviction is low because imports are filling the gap: EU corn imports reached 1.45 Mt in the first three weeks of the season, 39% above the five-season average of 1.04 Mt, a pace only 2022/23 beat, at 1.62 Mt, because imported corn is cheap. On a C&F basis, US and Argentine corn land in Europe $50.44/t under Euronext March converted to dollars, and Brazilian corn $47.19/t under.
Soybeans
CBOT soybeans (bullish bias). Demand is tightening the US balance. Export sales cover 50.6% of the USDA programme of 46.13 Mt, against 52.3% in 2022/23 and 32.6% to 45.0% in the four other previous seasons, which leaves 22.77 Mt to sell, against 25.47 to 32.25 Mt at the same week in the five previous seasons. Crushers run hard: they processed 5.34 Mt in September, against 5.38 Mt in September 2025 and 4.18 to 4.82 Mt in 2021-2024, on a crush margin of $110.98/t, near the top of its history. The US Gulf pays up for beans in the middle of harvest, with Nola cash $45.70/t over futures against a long-run median of $27.72/t. Conviction is low because the next Asian cargoes go to Brazil: US soybeans land in China $14.75/t above Brazilian soybeans on a C&F basis, and Brazil still has 17.90 Mt to ship to meet Conab's export forecast, against 15.34 Mt at the same point last season. The futures curve does not pay for beans on hand either, with January 13 c/bu over November against a median of 11.75 c/bu for the date.
CBOT soybean meal (neutral). US crushers run for oil and turn out more meal, and the meal finds buyers: USDA puts US meal output at 59.69 Mt, the largest in years, against 57.07 Mt last season, exports at 20.59 Mt against 18.60 Mt, and ending stocks at 0.408 Mt, the same as opening stocks. The physical premium is ordinary: US Gulf meal FOB averaged $68.02/t over CBOT meal from 15 October to 21 October, below $115.75/t in 2022 and $71.77/t in 2024, above $32.60/t in 2023 and $24.35/t in 2025. The futures curve shows neither tension nor surplus, with May $2.80 per short ton under December. Neither side dominates.
CBOT soybean oil (bullish bias). Renewable diesel pulls on US soybean oil. Biofuel plants used 0.77 Mt in July, after 0.70 Mt in June and against 0.50 Mt in July 2025, more than the USDA balance assumes, and crude oil pays more and more for nearby delivery, with Brent December $10.12 a barrel over March on 21 October, from $6.94 on 13 October. Stocks start the season low: they ended September at 0.478 Mt, against 0.564 Mt in September 2025 and 0.484 Mt in September 2024. Conviction is low because the soybean oil market does not pay for oil on hand: March trades 0.41 c/lb over December, and CBOT December, converted to dollars per tonne, stands $253.89/t over Argentine soybean oil FOB, so the world outside the US is well supplied.
Rapeseed and canola
Euronext rapeseed (bearish bias). Europe has too much rapeseed. The market pays to store from February to May: May trades €3.50/t over February, against a median of €1.25/t under and an upper quartile of €0 once November has expired. Both cash quotes trade under February, with French rapeseed FOB €13.01/t under and Rouen cash €6/t under. Crushers take EU seed only at a normal pace on a larger crop: they processed 4.52 Mt from July to September, or 3.66 Mt net of imported seed, in line with the five-season average of 3.65 Mt, while the EU crop, at 19.75 Mt, is 3.8% larger than the five-season average of 19.02 Mt. USDA puts EU ending stocks at 2.12 Mt, the third largest in nine seasons, behind 2.52 Mt in 2025/26 and 2.24 Mt in 2024/25. Conviction is low because the French crush margin is high, near the top of its history, and rapeseed oil is the cheapest soft oil at Rotterdam, $56.25/t under soybean oil and $57.75/t under sunflower oil: if crushers take more seed, the surplus clears.
ICE canola (neutral). Canadian crushers and exporters take more than the balance assumes: crushers processed 1.24 Mt in August, against 0.63 to 0.87 Mt in August of the five previous seasons, and exports run at 117% of their five-season average. Against that, Prairie farmers sell a late harvest at a deep discount: Saskatchewan cash averaged CAD 66.78/t under futures from 1 to 21 October, well below recent seasons for the period, against CAD 58.84/t under in 2025, and January pays CAD 13.50/t over November, against a median of CAD 7.40/t for the date, so the market pays to store. The two sides offset.
What changed today
- CBOT soybeans move from neutral to bullish bias: US export sales are ahead of their usual pace, with less left to sell than at the same week in any of the five previous seasons, and with strong crushing and a high crush margin the balance leans tighter.
To watch: EU wheat exports and corn imports, Rouen cash prices, the EU wheat balance in the next USDA report, weekly US export sales, wheat FOB prices at the US Gulf and in France, the CBOT wheat and corn calendar spreads, the November USDA balance for US corn, the Euronext corn calendar spreads once November expires, US soybean C&F prices in China against Brazil, Nola soybean cash, US crush, the CBOT soybean meal calendar spread and Gulf meal premiums, US soybean oil stocks and biofuel use, Brent calendar spreads, FOB France rapeseed against February, EU rapeseed crush and imports, Canadian September crush, and Saskatchewan canola cash prices.
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