Desk View — 23 October 2026: US wheat struggles to find export buyers, France pays to store rapeseed
US wheat export sales cover 52.3% of the USDA programme, a smaller share than at the same week in any recent season, while French rapeseed sells under February and Euronext pays to carry it to May. We are bearish on CBOT SRW wheat, CBOT corn and Euronext rapeseed, bullish on Euronext milling wheat, Euronext corn, CBOT soybeans and CBOT soybean oil, and neutral on HRW wheat, soybean meal and canola.
Conviction board
| Product | Contract | View | In one line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milling Wheat | Euronext | Bullish bias | EU stocks among the lowest in seven seasons after repeated crop cuts, firm Rouen cash, no carry and Romanian wheat well over French. Slow EU exports and large Russian stocks hold conviction down. |
| SRW Wheat | CBOT | Bearish | US export sales cover a smaller share of the USDA programme than in any recent season, wheat is too dear to feed and imports run above average. Only a narrow gap over French wheat at port works the other way. |
| HRW Wheat | CBOT | Neutral | The HRW premium over SRW sits within its usual range, physical and futures alike, with protein plentiful in spring wheat. |
| Corn | CBOT | Bearish bias | The smallest share of the export programme sold in recent years, the dearest origin at port and a curve that pays to store before the harvest is in. A strong latest weekly sale and average stocks against use hold conviction down. |
| Corn | Euronext | Bullish bias | The whole old-crop curve is inverted on a small French crop already harvested and much lower ending stocks. Fast EU imports of cheaper US and Argentine corn hold conviction down. |
| Soybeans | CBOT | Bullish bias | US export sales ahead of their usual pace with less left to sell, strong crushing on a high margin and a firm US Gulf. US beans dearer than Brazilian in China and an ordinary carry hold conviction down. |
| Soybean Meal | CBOT | Neutral | Record US meal output, a curve losing its inversion and cheaper South American meal, against a US Gulf premium in the middle of recent years and nearby futures still inverted. |
| Soybean Oil | CBOT | Bullish bias | Biofuel use at its highest July in recent years, low US stocks and a high renewable diesel margin. A carry on the curve and a wide premium over Argentine oil hold conviction down. |
| Rapeseed | Euronext | Bearish bias | The market pays to store from February to May, cash trades under February, stocks are high and imports low on a larger crop. A high crush margin and cheap rapeseed oil hold conviction down. |
| Canola | ICE | Neutral | Strong Canadian crush and exports against Saskatchewan cash well below recent seasons for October and a carry that pays to store. |
US wheat is struggling to find export buyers: sales cover 52.3% of the USDA programme, a smaller share than at the same week in any recent season, and the latest week brought only 0.24 Mt. In France, the rapeseed market pays to store, with Euronext May trading €2.75/t over February and French cash selling under February. We are bearish on CBOT SRW wheat, CBOT corn and Euronext rapeseed, bullish on Euronext milling wheat, Euronext corn, CBOT soybeans and CBOT soybean oil, and neutral on KC HRW wheat, CBOT soybean meal and ICE canola.
Wheat
Euronext milling wheat (bullish bias). The EU will end the season with little wheat to spare, because the crop has been cut at each USDA report since August, from 136 Mt to 133 Mt, which takes EU ending stocks to 11.72 Mt, the third lowest in seven seasons (10.70 to 18.97 Mt since 2020/21). French cash shows no surplus: Rouen wheat traded €1/t under futures on 19 October, against a long-run median of €3.75/t under, and the market does not pay to store, with Euronext March €0.25/t over December against a median of €3.25/t over for the date. Black Sea neighbours are not undercutting it either: Romanian wheat sells $13.75/t over French wheat FOB, against a long-run median of $4.75/t under. Conviction is low because foreign demand is not pulling: EU wheat exports reached 8.47 Mt, 87% of the five-season average of 9.73 Mt at the same week, French wheat is the cheap EU origin, and Russia holds large stocks, with USDA ending stocks of 19.09 Mt against 11.99 Mt last season.
CBOT SRW wheat (bearish). US wheat cannot find buyers. Export sales cover 52.3% of the USDA programme of 20.41 Mt, against 54.5% to 63.9% at the same week in the five previous seasons, and the latest week added 0.24 Mt, 59% of the 0.40 Mt average for that week. Applied to the share of final exports sold by this week in each of those seasons, the current sales point to exports of 16.7 to 19.6 Mt, all under the programme. Feed is no outlet, because CBOT wheat stands $48.27/t over CBOT corn against a long-run median of $36.41/t, and US wheat imports keep coming: 0.708 Mt from June to August, 31% above the five-season average of 0.54 Mt. Supply builds without a buyer. The one counterweight is price at port: US Gulf SRW sells $19.75/t over Argentine wheat FOB, but only $9.75/t over French wheat, close enough to win business again if the gap holds.
KC HRW wheat (neutral). Hard red winter follows the US wheat balance without a story of its own. HRW sells $36.50/t over SRW FOB at the US Gulf, against a median of $42.25/t over the past five years, and the gap between that physical premium and the premium on the futures board is $20.06/t, against a median of $26.49/t over the same five years. Protein is plentiful: Minneapolis spring wheat trades only 17 c/bu over Chicago SRW, against a long-run median of 68 c/bu. Nothing pulls a premium of its own into HRW.
Corn
CBOT corn (bearish bias). US corn is short of buyers. Export sales cover 26.5% of the USDA programme, against 30.6% to 46.0% at the same week in the five previous seasons, and US corn is the dearest of the three American origins at port: US Gulf FOB $223.25/t, against $217.50/t for Brazil and $210.25/t for Argentina. The market pays to store, with March 13.75 c/bu over December against a median of 9.75 c/bu for the date, although the US harvest was only 44% done in the latest week, against 59% to 66% at the same week in four previous seasons. Conviction is low because the latest week brought 1.52 Mt of sales, above the 1.34 Mt a week needed to meet the programme, and because ending stocks of 46.97 Mt equal 11.3% of annual use and exports, within the 8.3% to 12.7% range of the six previous seasons.
Euronext corn (bullish bias). In France the market pays to have corn now, because the crop is small and already harvested: FranceAgriMer puts it at 6.63 Mt against 12.99 Mt last season, and ending stocks at 1.13 Mt against 1.97 Mt. The whole old-crop curve is inverted: March trades €19.75/t under November, against a median of €3.88/t over for the date, and June €2.50/t under March, against a median of €3/t over once November has expired, both well below recent seasons. Eastern Europe is just as tight, with Romanian corn at Constanta $89.88/t over CBOT against a long-run median of $37.40/t. Conviction is low because imports are filling the gap: EU corn imports reached 1.45 Mt, 39% above the five-season average of 1.04 Mt, since US and Argentine corn land in Europe $50.44/t under Euronext March converted to dollars on a C&F basis. The shortfall is being covered, not yet closed.
Soybeans
CBOT soybeans (bullish bias). Demand is tightening the US balance. Export sales cover 56.8% of the USDA programme of 46.13 Mt, level with 56.5% in 2022/23 and above 35.2% to 49.6% in the four other previous seasons, after a weekly sale of 2.84 Mt, against 1.05 to 2.75 Mt for that week in the five previous seasons. That leaves 19.93 Mt to sell, against 23.42 to 29.50 Mt at the same week in those seasons. Crushers run hard: they processed 5.34 Mt in September, against 5.38 Mt in September 2025 and 4.18 to 4.82 Mt in 2021-2024, on a crush margin of $110.41/t, near the top of its history, and Nola cash stands $45.70/t over futures against a long-run median of $27.72/t. Conviction is low because the next Asian cargoes go to Brazil: US soybeans land in China $14.75/t above Brazilian soybeans on a C&F basis, and Brazil still has 17.90 Mt to ship to meet Conab's export forecast, against 15.34 Mt at the same point last season. The futures curve does not pay for beans on hand either, with January 11.75 c/bu over November, exactly its median for the date.
CBOT soybean meal (neutral). US crushers run for oil and turn out a record volume of meal that has to be placed: USDA puts US meal output at 59.69 Mt, the largest in years, against 57.07 Mt last season. The curve is losing its inversion, with May $1.60 per short ton under December against $7 under on 12 October, and South America is cheaper, with Brazilian and Argentine meal FOB $45.75/t and $39.50/t under US Gulf meal. Against that, the Gulf is not discounting: US Gulf meal FOB averaged $68.02/t over CBOT meal from 15 to 21 October, below $115.75/t in 2022 and $71.77/t in 2024, above $32.60/t in 2023 and $24.35/t in 2025, and the first three futures are still inverted. The low share of the export programme sold reflects a programme that grows each year, not missing demand. Neither side dominates.
CBOT soybean oil (bullish bias). Biofuel plants are drawing harder on US soybean oil while stocks are low: biofuel use reached 0.77 Mt in July, the highest July in recent years, against 0.44 to 0.58 Mt in July of the four previous seasons, and stocks ended September at 0.478 Mt, against 0.564 Mt in September 2025 and 0.484 Mt in September 2024. Renewable diesel plants still earn a high margin, $771.16/t on 23 October against a weekly median of $94.97/t since February 2025, with only six weeks higher, even though the D4 RIN credit eased to $1.76 from $1.90 a week earlier. Conviction is low because the market does not pay for oil on hand: March trades 0.46 c/lb over December, and CBOT December, converted to dollars per tonne, stands $253.89/t over Argentine soybean oil FOB.
Rapeseed and canola
Euronext rapeseed (bearish bias). Europe's larger crop is not finding buyers beyond the usual crushing pace, so the market pays to store it. May trades €2.75/t over February, against a median of €1.25/t under and an upper quartile of €0 once November has expired. Both cash quotes trade under February, with French rapeseed FOB €13.01/t under and Rouen cash €6/t under. The EU crop, at 19.75 Mt, is above the five-season average of 19.02 Mt, USDA puts EU ending stocks at 2.12 Mt, the third largest in nine seasons, behind 2.52 Mt in 2025/26 and 2.24 Mt in 2024/25, and the EU buys little abroad: rapeseed imports reached 1.09 Mt, 68% of the five-season average of 1.59 Mt. Conviction is low because the French crush margin is high, near the top of its history, and rapeseed oil is the cheapest soft oil at Rotterdam, $56.25/t under soybean oil and $57.75/t under sunflower oil, which can pull more seed into crushing.
ICE canola (neutral). Canadian crushers and exporters take more than the balance assumes: crushers processed 1.24 Mt in August, against 0.63 to 0.87 Mt in August of the five previous seasons, and exports run at 117% of their five-season average. Against that, Prairie farmers sell a late harvest at a deep discount: Saskatchewan cash averaged CAD 66.59/t under futures from 1 to 22 October, well below recent seasons for the period, against CAD 58.52/t under in 2025, and January pays CAD 13.80/t over November, against a median of CAD 7.40/t for the date, so the market pays to store. The two sides offset, and September crush data should settle it.
What changed today
- CBOT SRW wheat moves from bearish bias to bearish: US export sales fell further behind, to a smaller share of the USDA programme than at the same week in any recent season, and the latest weekly sale fell short of the usual pace again.
To watch: weekly US export sales of wheat, corn, soybeans and meal, wheat FOB prices at the US Gulf and in France, Romanian and French wheat FOB, EU wheat exports and corn and rapeseed imports, Rouen cash prices, the November USDA balances, US corn harvest progress, the Euronext corn and rapeseed calendar spreads once November expires, French rapeseed FOB against February, US soybean C&F prices in China against Brazil, Nola soybean cash, the CBOT soybean meal curve and Gulf meal premiums, US soybean oil stocks and biofuel use, renewable diesel margins, Canadian September crush, and Saskatchewan canola cash prices.
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