From the GrainBoard desk
Our reading of grain and oilseed markets. Every figure comes from GrainBoard; every note is reviewed and signed.
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Crushers took a sixth of the year's domestic programme in August and September, before the harvest was in, while seed exports ran ahead of their usual pace. Futures are following soybeans down, and the Saskatchewan cash market shows a harvest being sold hard.
Chinese crushers are sitting on far more beans, meal and oil than they usually hold in late October, yet US sales to China just jumped. The state is doing the buying, at a premium to Brazil, while the real's slide cheapens the crop private crushers will want next.
EU plants crushed more seed in September than a year earlier, and all of the gain went to sunflower and soybeans while rapeseed held flat with French silos fuller than last year. The plant margin, the winter biodiesel premium and cheap rapeseed oil all point the other way.
Euronext's November contract has dropped 46.5 €/t under February, almost all of it in the front month, while canola and soybean curves held. French cash is following it down, into a crush running below its usual pace.
US soybeans are a week behind and Saskatchewan canola two and a half, yet cash markets trade as if the harvest were on time. With bins this full, the delay postpones the selling rather than cancelling it.
