China is buying US soybeans its crushers have no room for
Chinese crushers are sitting on far more beans, meal and oil than they usually hold in late October, yet US sales to China just jumped. The state is doing the buying, at a premium to Brazil, while the real's slide cheapens the crop private crushers will want next.
Chinese crushing plants are carrying far more soybeans, meal and oil than they usually do in late October, and the beans keep coming. The big bookings of the past week are American, bought by the state to honour a trade commitment rather than by the crushers, and they cost more than Brazil's.
The plants are full
Soybean stocks at Chinese crushers stood at 8.13 Mt in the third week of October, 8% more than a year earlier. Meal stocks are up 23% on the year at 1.30 Mt, and soybean oil stocks have climbed to 1.48 Mt against 1.25. Crushing is not draining them: plants processed 86.5 Mt of beans from January to the third week of October, only 2% more than over the same weeks of 2025. Imports did not ease to match: China took 11.9 Mt in September, close to last September's 12.9.
The beans are going to the state
Into those full tanks, US export sales jumped to 2.84 Mt in the latest weekly report, after two weeks under 0.6 Mt, and 2.18 Mt of it was for China. The crushers are not the ones buying. Soybeans were left out of the tariff relief that followed the September summit, and the purchases are being made by state-owned companies working towards Beijing's commitment to buy American beans.
The price says the same thing. In October 2024 and October 2025, with the US harvest coming in, American beans landed in China below Brazilian ones in every session. This October they have landed above them in every session, and on 26 October they were 13.50 $/t dearer.
The real has just cheapened the other buyer's crop
The dollar jumped from 4.98 to 5.41 reais on 26 October, the session after Lula's re-election. That lowers the dollar price of the crop Brazil starts shipping in the new year, the one private Chinese crushers buy on price. None of it shows in the spot market yet: on 26 October all three origins fell together in C&F China, and the US premium over Brazil stayed inside its October range.
Our reading: US sales to China now run on the commitment alone
China's commercial demand has no room for more beans, and when it does, it will be buying against a Brazilian crop the real has just made cheaper. Until then, American beans reach China on the state's bookings, not on price. Three signals in our data will show how that plays out:
- Crusher soybean stocks. Plants worked them down by 1.0 to 3.1 Mt between late October and late March in four of the last five winters. A slower draw would keep the private crushers out of the market, whatever the origin.
- The US premium over Brazil in C&F China. If the weaker real reaches Brazilian offers, the gap widens, and the American side of it becomes a price only a buyer outside the market would pay.
- Weekly US export sales. Once the state's bookings ease, the prints will show whether any buyer follows at the American price.
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