Desk View — 26 October 2026: French wheat lands below Argentine and US wheat in North Africa and Egypt, France pays more for March corn than for June
French wheat now costs less delivered to Algeria, Morocco and Egypt than Argentine and US wheat, while a halved French corn crop leaves Euronext June corn under March. We are bullish on Euronext milling wheat, Euronext corn, CBOT soybeans and CBOT soybean oil, bearish on CBOT SRW wheat, CBOT corn and Euronext rapeseed, and neutral on HRW wheat, soybean meal and canola.
Conviction board
| Product | Contract | View | In one line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milling Wheat | Euronext | Bullish bias | EU stocks among the lowest in seven seasons after repeated crop cuts, firm Rouen cash, no carry, and French wheat now lands below Argentine and US wheat in North Africa. French port loadings and EU exports still run below average. |
| SRW Wheat | CBOT | Bearish | US export sales cover a smaller share of the USDA programme than in any recent season, wheat is too dear to feed, imports run above average and US Gulf wheat sells well over French wheat. |
| HRW Wheat | CBOT | Neutral | The HRW premium over SRW sits inside its usual range at the US Gulf, the physical-to-futures gap at the lower edge of its own, and protein is plentiful in spring wheat: nothing sets HRW apart. |
| Corn | CBOT | Bearish bias | The smallest share of the export programme sold in recent years, the dearest origin at port and a curve that pays to store with half the harvest in. A strong latest weekly sale and firm Nola cash hold conviction down. |
| Corn | Euronext | Bullish bias | June trades under March on a halved French crop, and Bordeaux cash trades over March. Cheaper US import corn and cheap feed wheat hold conviction down. |
| Soybeans | CBOT | Bullish bias | US export sales ahead of most recent seasons with less left to sell, the largest Chinese imports in recent years and a crush margin near its highs. US beans dearer than Brazilian in China and an ordinary carry hold conviction down. |
| Soybean Meal | CBOT | Neutral | Large US meal output, a curve that lost its inversion to May and cheaper South American meal, against nearby futures still inverted and a firm US Gulf premium. |
| Soybean Oil | CBOT | Bullish bias | Low US stocks, strong biofuel use and a high renewable diesel margin. An easing RIN credit, a carry on the curve and a wide premium over Argentine oil hold conviction down. |
| Rapeseed | Euronext | Bearish bias | Heavy EU stocks, low imports and French seed selling well under February. A fast-narrowing February to May carry and a high crush margin hold conviction down. |
| Canola | ICE | Neutral | Strong Canadian crush and exports against Saskatchewan cash well below recent seasons for October and a carry that pays to store. |
French wheat now lands in Algeria, Morocco and Egypt below Argentine and US wheat, and in France the corn market pays more for March delivery than for June on a crop that has nearly halved. US wheat and corn, by contrast, are still short of export buyers. We are bullish on Euronext milling wheat, Euronext corn, CBOT soybeans and CBOT soybean oil, bearish on CBOT SRW wheat, CBOT corn and Euronext rapeseed, and neutral on KC HRW wheat, CBOT soybean meal and ICE canola.
Wheat
Euronext milling wheat (bullish bias). Europe has no wheat surplus to push out, because the EU crop has been cut at each USDA report since August, from 136 Mt to 133 Mt, which takes EU ending stocks to 11.72 Mt, the third lowest in seven seasons (10.70 to 18.97 Mt since 2020/21). French cash shows the same: Rouen wheat traded €1/t under futures on 23 October, against a long-run median of €3.75/t under, and the market does not pay to store, with Euronext March only €0.25/t over December against a median of €3.25/t over for the date. French wheat is now priced to win business abroad: delivered to Algeria it costs $288.25/t on a C&F basis, against $300.50/t for Argentine and $312.75/t for Romanian wheat, and it also lands below both in Egypt and below Argentine wheat in Morocco, as it already did on 21 October. At port, Romanian wheat sells $18/t over French wheat FOB, against a long-run median of $4.75/t under. Conviction is low because that price has not yet turned into shipments: loadings at French ports reached 2.12 Mt, 91% of the five-season average of 2.33 Mt at the same week, and EU wheat exports 8.47 Mt, 87% of the five-season average of 9.73 Mt.
CBOT SRW wheat (bearish). US wheat cannot find buyers. Export sales cover 52.3% of the USDA programme of 20.41 Mt, against 54.5% to 63.9% at the same week in the five previous seasons. Applied to the share of final exports sold by this week in each of those seasons, current sales point to exports of 16.7 to 19.6 Mt, all under the programme. Feed is no outlet, because CBOT wheat stands $50.13/t over CBOT corn against a long-run median of $36.42/t, and imports keep coming: 0.708 Mt from June to August, 31% above the five-season average of 0.54 Mt. Nor is US wheat priced to win export business: US Gulf SRW sells $17.75/t over French wheat FOB, against a long-run median of $7.50/t. Supply builds without a buyer.
KC HRW wheat (neutral). Hard red winter follows the US wheat balance without a story of its own. HRW sells $33/t over SRW FOB at the US Gulf, against a median of $42.25/t over the past five years, and the gap between that physical premium and the premium on the futures board is $18.49/t, against a median of $26.47/t over the same period: the premium sits inside its usual range and the gap at the lower edge of its own, with nothing that sets HRW apart. Protein is plentiful: Minneapolis spring wheat trades only 16.5 c/bu over Chicago SRW, against a long-run median of 68 c/bu. Nothing pulls a premium of its own into HRW.
Corn
CBOT corn (bearish bias). US corn is short of buyers. Export sales cover 26.5% of the USDA programme, against 30.6% to 46.0% at the same week in the five previous seasons, and US corn is the dearest of the three American origins at port: US Gulf FOB $218.75/t, against $214.75/t for Brazil and $211.50/t for Argentina. With no pressure to sell now, the market pays to store: March trades 14.25 c/bu over December, against a median of 9.75 c/bu for the date, although the US harvest was only 44% done in the latest week, against 59% to 66% at the same week in four previous seasons. Conviction is low because the latest week brought 1.52 Mt of sales, above the 1.34 Mt a week needed to meet the programme, Nola cash stands $40.88/t over futures against a long-run median of $29.99/t, and Argentine corn now sells only $7.25/t under the US Gulf.
Euronext corn (bullish bias). France is short of corn, so its market pays to have it sooner. FranceAgriMer puts the French crop at 6.63 Mt against 12.99 Mt last season and ending stocks at 1.13 Mt against 1.97 Mt, and USDA cuts EU output to 48 Mt from 56.9 Mt and EU ending stocks to 5.05 Mt from 6.15 Mt. On the two liquid contracts, June trades €3/t under March, against a median of €3/t over at this date once November has expired, and below any recent season, where the lowest was €1/t under. Cash agrees: Bordeaux corn traded €5/t over Euronext March on 21 and 22 October. Conviction is low because imports can fill the gap: US corn lands in Europe $52.28/t under Euronext March converted to dollars, on a C&F basis, and EU corn imports reached 1.45 Mt, 39% above the five-season average of 1.04 Mt. Wheat also draws feed compounders away from corn, with Euronext December wheat €31.25/t under March corn.
Soybeans
CBOT soybeans (bullish bias). The US crop is already largely sold. Export sales cover 56.8% of the USDA programme of 46.13 Mt, level with 56.5% in 2022/23 and above 35.2% to 49.6% in the four other previous seasons, which leaves 19.93 Mt to sell, against 23.42 to 29.50 Mt at the same week in those seasons. China imported 111.69 Mt of soybeans in the season to September, the largest in recent years, against 110.53 Mt the season before, and US crushers earn $108.46/t, a margin near the top of its history. Conviction is low because the next Chinese cargoes favour Brazil: US soybeans land in China $21.25/t above Brazilian soybeans on a C&F basis, and the futures curve does not pay for beans on hand, with January 12 c/bu over November against a median of 11.75 c/bu for the date.
CBOT soybean meal (neutral). US crushers run for oil and turn out a large volume of meal that has to be placed: USDA puts US meal output at 59.69 Mt, the largest in years, against 57.07 Mt last season, and South America is cheaper, with Brazilian and Argentine meal FOB $39.50/t and $32.50/t under US Gulf meal. The curve has lost its inversion to May, which now trades $0.40 per short ton over December, against $7 under on 12 October. Against that, nearby meal still commands a premium: December trades over January and March, and US Gulf meal sells $61.99/t over CBOT December meal, against a median of $44.03/t since March 2022. Neither side dominates.
CBOT soybean oil (bullish bias). Biofuel plants draw harder on a thinner US soybean oil supply. Stocks ended September at 0.478 Mt, against 0.564 Mt a year earlier and 0.484 Mt in September 2024, and biofuel use reached 0.77 Mt in July, against 0.44 to 0.58 Mt in July of the four previous seasons. Renewable diesel plants still earn a high margin, $810.43/t on 23 October, within the $670.39 to $921.71/t range it has held every week since 7 August. Conviction is low because the D4 RIN credit eased to $1.79 from $1.90 a week earlier, the market does not pay for oil on hand, with March 0.52 c/lb over December, and CBOT December, converted to dollars per tonne, stands $253.10/t over Argentine soybean oil FOB.
Rapeseed and canola
Euronext rapeseed (bearish bias). Europe has more rapeseed than it can place, so French seed sells at a discount to futures. USDA puts EU ending stocks at 2.12 Mt, the third largest in nine seasons, behind 2.52 Mt in 2025/26 and 2.24 Mt in 2024/25, and the EU buys little abroad: rapeseed imports reached 1.09 Mt, 68% of the five-season average of 1.59 Mt. French rapeseed sells FOB €17.14/t under Euronext February. Conviction is low because the reward for storing from February to May is shrinking fast, to €1.75/t from €5/t on 19 October, although it remains above an upper quartile of €0 for the date once November has expired, and French crushers earn a margin near the top of its history.
ICE canola (neutral). Canadian crushers and exporters keep pace with the balance: crushers processed 1.24 Mt in August, against 0.63 to 0.87 Mt in August of the five previous seasons, and exports run at 115% of their five-season average. Against that, Prairie farmers sell at a deep discount: Saskatchewan cash averaged CAD 66.42/t under futures from 1 to 23 October, well below recent seasons for the period, against CAD 58.18/t under in 2025, and January pays CAD 13.80/t over November, against a median of CAD 7.35/t for the date, so the market pays to store. The two sides offset, and September crush data should settle it.
What changed today
No view and no conviction changed since our previous Desk View.
To watch: delivered wheat prices in Algeria, Morocco and Egypt by origin, French port loadings and EU wheat exports, Rouen cash prices, weekly US export sales of wheat, corn and soybeans, US Gulf and French wheat FOB, US corn harvest progress and Nola corn cash, the November USDA balances, the Euronext corn calendar spread after November expires, Bordeaux corn cash, EU corn and rapeseed imports, US soybean C&F prices in China against Brazil, the CBOT soybean meal curve and Gulf meal premiums, US soybean oil stocks and biofuel use, renewable diesel margins and RIN credits, French rapeseed FOB against February, the Euronext rapeseed calendar spread, Canadian September crush, and Saskatchewan canola cash prices.
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