Desk View — 27 October 2026: Rouen rapeseed cash back near February, US wheat and corn still trail on export sales

In France, Rouen rapeseed cash has firmed back close to Euronext February futures while USDA sees EU rapeseed stocks drawn down, so the European rapeseed surplus no longer shows at the port. In the US, wheat and corn export sales still cover a smaller share of the USDA programme than at the same week of any recent season. We are bullish on Euronext milling wheat, Euronext corn, CBOT soybeans and CBOT soybean oil, bearish on CBOT SRW wheat and CBOT corn, and neutral on KC HRW wheat, CBOT soybean meal, Euronext rapeseed and ICE canola.

Wheat

Euronext milling wheat (bullish bias). Europe has no wheat surplus to push out, because the EU crop has been cut at each USDA report since August, from 136 Mt to 133 Mt, which takes EU ending stocks to 11.72 Mt, the third lowest in seven seasons (10.70 to 18.97 Mt since 2020/21). French cash agrees: Rouen wheat traded €1/t under futures on 26 October, against a long-run median of €3.75/t under, and the market barely pays to store, with Euronext March €1/t over December against a median of €3.25/t over for the date. At port, Romanian wheat sells $18.25/t over French wheat FOB, against a long-run median of $4.75/t under. French wheat is priced to win business in North Africa and Egypt: delivered to Algeria it costs $287.75/t on a C&F basis, against $295.25/t for Argentine and $307.50/t for Romanian wheat, and it also lands below Argentine wheat in Morocco and below Argentine and Romanian wheat in Egypt. Conviction is low because that lead is shrinking, to $7.50/t over Argentina in Algeria from $12.25/t on 23 October, and the grain is not yet moving: EU wheat exports reached 8.47 Mt, 87% of the five-season average of 9.73 Mt.

CBOT SRW wheat (bearish). The US has more wheat to export than buyers are taking. Export sales cover 52.3% of the USDA programme of 20.41 Mt, against 54.5% to 63.9% at the same week in the five previous seasons. Applied to the share of final exports sold by this week in each of those seasons, current sales point to exports of 16.7 to 19.6 Mt, all under the programme. Feed offers no outlet, because CBOT wheat stands $47.22/t over CBOT corn against a long-run median of $36.43/t, and imports keep coming: 0.708 Mt from June to August, 31% above the five-season average of 0.54 Mt. Nor is US wheat priced to win business abroad: US Gulf SRW sells $11.75/t over French wheat FOB, against a long-run median of $7.50/t. The wheat that is not sold stays in the US.

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KC HRW wheat (neutral). Hard red winter follows the US wheat balance without a story of its own. HRW sells $37.25/t over SRW FOB at the US Gulf, against a median of $42.25/t over the past five years, and the gap between that physical premium and the premium on the futures board is $21.45/t, against a median of $26.39/t over the same period; both have moved inside the range of the past three weeks. Protein carries no premium either: Minneapolis spring wheat trades only 18 c/bu over Chicago SRW, against a long-run median of 68 c/bu. Nothing sets HRW apart from the rest of US wheat.

Corn

CBOT corn (bearish bias). US corn supply is ample for what has been sold. Export sales cover 26.5% of the USDA programme, against 30.6% to 46.0% at the same week in the five previous seasons, and the market pays to store, with March 13.75 c/bu over December against a median of 9.75 c/bu for the date, even though the harvest was only 60% done in the latest week, against 71% to 81% at the same week in four previous seasons. Conviction is low because the correction has started: US corn now lands below Argentine corn in Europe, at $245.75/t against $252.75/t on a C&F basis, and in Egypt, at $261.75/t against $265.75/t, as it already did on 24 October, and US Gulf corn sells only $6/t over Argentine corn FOB. A cheaper origin is how a slow export book catches up.

Euronext corn (bullish bias). Europe pays for corn on hand, because the French crop has nearly halved. FranceAgriMer puts it at 6.63 Mt against 12.99 Mt last season and French ending stocks at 1.13 Mt against 1.97 Mt, and USDA cuts EU ending stocks to 5.05 Mt from 6.15 Mt. Euronext June trades €3/t under March, against a median of €3/t over at this date and below any recent season, where the lowest was €1/t under, and Bordeaux cash trades €3.25/t over March, against a long-run median of €7/t under. Conviction is low because the gap is already being filled: US corn lands in Europe $50.06/t under Euronext March converted to dollars, on a C&F basis, December wheat costs €38.25/t less than March corn and draws feed compounders away from corn, and Bordeaux cash has eased from €5/t over March on 21 and 22 October.

Soybeans

CBOT soybeans (bullish bias). The buyer is there and the US crop is largely sold. Export sales cover 56.8% of the USDA programme of 46.13 Mt, level with 56.5% in 2022/23 and above 35.2% to 49.6% in the four other previous seasons, which leaves 19.93 Mt to sell, against 23.42 to 29.50 Mt at the same week in those seasons. China imported 111.69 Mt of soybeans in the season to September, the largest in recent years, against 110.53 Mt the season before, and US crushers earn $105.59/t, a margin near the top of its history. Conviction is low because the physical market does not confirm yet: export premiums over futures eased at both the US Gulf and Paranagua over the past week, and the curve shows an ordinary carry, with March 8.5 c/bu over January against a median of 10.75 c/bu for the date.

CBOT soybean meal (neutral). US crushers run for oil and turn out a large volume of meal to place: USDA puts US meal output at 59.69 Mt, the largest in years, against 57.07 Mt last season, and Brazilian meal sells $45/t under US Gulf meal FOB. The curve has lost its inversion to May, which now trades $0.50 per short ton over December, against $7 under on 12 October. Against that, nearby meal still commands a premium: December trades over January and March, and US Gulf meal sells $64.99/t over CBOT December meal, up from $61.99/t on the previous quote and against a median of $44.03/t since March 2022. Neither side dominates.

CBOT soybean oil (bullish bias). Biofuel plants draw hard on a thin US soybean oil supply. Stocks ended September at 0.478 Mt, the lowest in recent years, against 0.564 Mt a year earlier and 0.484 Mt in September 2024, because biofuel use reached 0.77 Mt in July, against 0.44 to 0.58 Mt in July of the four previous seasons, and renewable diesel plants still earn a high margin, $823.99/t on 23 October, within the $670.39 to $921.71/t range it has held every week since 7 August. Conviction is low because the market does not pay for oil on hand: the D4 RIN credit eased to $1.84 from $1.90 a week earlier, March trades 0.45 c/lb over December, and CBOT December, converted to dollars per tonne, stands $274.32/t over Argentine soybean oil FOB.

Rapeseed and canola

Euronext rapeseed (neutral). The EU rapeseed surplus no longer shows in French cash. Rouen rapeseed traded €1.25/t under Euronext February on 26 October, against €6/t under on 19 October and a long-run median of €5.50/t under the nearby contract, and USDA sees EU ending stocks falling to 2.12 Mt from 2.52 Mt in 2025/26, while French crushers earn a margin near the top of its history. Against that firmness, the market still pays to store: May trades €1.25/t over February, above an upper quartile of €0 for the date, although down from €5/t over on 19 October, and French collectors held 2.28 Mt at the end of August, the largest in recent years, against 1.65 to 2.08 Mt in previous seasons. Cash and carry point in opposite directions, and neither settles the balance.

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ICE canola (neutral). Canadian crushers and exporters move canola fast: crushers processed 1.24 Mt in August, against 0.63 to 0.87 Mt in August of the five previous seasons, and exports run at 115% of their five-season average. Against that, Prairie farmers sell at a deep discount: Saskatchewan cash averaged CAD 66.42/t under futures from 1 to 23 October, well below recent seasons for the period, against CAD 58.18/t under in 2025, and ICE March pays CAD 12.30/t over January, against a median of CAD 6.90/t for the date, so the market pays to store. Flows and the physical market disagree, and September crush data should settle it.

What changed today

• Euronext rapeseed moves from bearish bias to neutral: Rouen cash, read against February, now trades above its usual discount, and the EU balance draws stocks down; only a narrowing carry still leans lower.

To watch: Rouen rapeseed and wheat cash prices, the Euronext rapeseed and corn calendar spreads, French collector stocks, EU rapeseed and corn imports, delivered wheat and corn prices in North Africa, Egypt and Europe by origin, EU wheat exports, weekly US export sales of wheat, corn and soybeans, US Gulf and French wheat FOB, US corn harvest progress, the November USDA balances, Bordeaux corn cash, soybean export premiums at the US Gulf and Paranagua, the CBOT soybean meal curve and Gulf meal premiums, US soybean oil stocks and biofuel use, renewable diesel margins and RIN credits, Canadian September crush, and Saskatchewan canola cash prices.