Desk View — 10 November 2026: France pays above futures for wheat on hand, US soybean oil loses its premium over Argentina

French buyers pay above futures for wheat they can have now: Rouen milling wheat cash stood €0.25/t over Euronext December on 9 November, and every Euronext wheat contract trades under the one before it. US soybean oil goes the other way, with a futures curve that now pays to store oil and a premium over Argentine oil that has shrunk since June. We are bullish on Euronext milling wheat, Euronext corn, CBOT soybeans and ICE canola, bearish on CBOT corn, CBOT soybean meal, CBOT soybean oil and Euronext rapeseed, and neutral on CBOT SRW wheat and KC HRW wheat.

Wheat

Euronext milling wheat (bullish). The French market pays for wheat it can load now and will not pay to store it. Rouen cash (12% protein) stood €0.25/t over Euronext December on 9 November, up from level on 4 November and the firmest since late August, when December became the reference contract. At the same date, Rouen was under futures in every year from 2017 to 2025, by €6.25/t to €0.25/t; only 2016, at €0.75/t over, was firmer. The curve refuses to pay for storage: March trades €4/t under December, against a median carry of €3.50/t at this date and a carry of €6/t in early June, and May and September trade lower still, at €221.50/t and €215.50/t against €226.75/t for December. Both balance sheets see EU stocks falling: the European Commission put 2026/27 ending stocks at 10.60 Mt on 30 October, from 11.42 Mt a month earlier and against 15.45 Mt last season, and USDA sees 11.72 Mt against 18.97 Mt. Supply in reserve exists but is not moving. Russia shipped 8.68 Mt of wheat by the end of October, about half the 17.64 Mt average of the five previous seasons, on ending stocks USDA puts at 19.09 Mt against 11.99 Mt last season. Argentina, whose new crop competes with French wheat in North Africa, had cut 8% of its wheat by week 45, against 1% to 14% at the same week of the five previous seasons; its harvest is the main risk to this view.

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CBOT SRW wheat (neutral). Soft red wheat has no imbalance of its own. US Gulf SRW cash stands $41.20/t over CBOT December, but Gulf corn is almost as firm, at $40.58/t over CBOT December, so wheat earns only $0.62/t more than corn: buyers pay for grain loaded at the Gulf, not for soft red wheat in particular. The curve pays a normal carry to store wheat, with March 12.50 c/bu over December, above the lower quarter for the date (10.12 c/bu) and under the median of 16.25 c/bu. At origin, US SRW is offered $3.75/t over French wheat FOB, so it is not the cheaper wheat either.

KC HRW wheat (neutral). The Gulf premium for hard red winter wheat is easing, but on a single price. HRW cash stands $52.34/t over KC December, from $57.90/t on 5 November. HRW sells $27.50/t over SRW FOB at the Gulf, below its median of $34.25/t, while KC futures trade 44.50 c/bu over Chicago, or $16.35/t, so the cash premium over soft red wheat now exceeds the futures premium by $11.15/t, against $16.34/t on 5 November. Both moves rest on one quote, the Gulf HRW offer, and nothing else in the market confirms them.

Corn

CBOT corn (bearish bias). US corn has not found its export buyers. Sales reached 24.79 Mt by week 45, only 29.6% of the USDA export programme of 83.82 Mt, against 33.7% to 49.4% of final exports at the same week in the five previous seasons. Even if sales from here followed the most favourable pattern of those seasons, they would end 12.2 Mt short of the programme; week 45 brought 1.29 Mt, against 0.37 to 2.77 Mt in the same week of those seasons. The market pays to store what is left: March trades 13 c/bu over December, above the upper quarter for the date (12.50 c/bu) and a median of 9 c/bu. Conviction is low because ethanol plants absorb corn well, producing 1.14 million barrels a day in week 44 against 1.04 to 1.12 million in the same week of the five previous seasons, on a margin of $107.77/t on 6 November against $87.15/t a year earlier. The harvest is also late, 81% done by week 46 against 88% to 95% at the same week from 2021 to 2024, which keeps part of the crop off the market for now.

Euronext corn (bullish bias). Europe is short of corn now. June trades €2.50/t under March, a deeper discount than at this date in any recent season, when the median is a carry of €2.75/t. Bordeaux cash confirms it at €2.75/t over Euronext March, against €11.25/t to €1.50/t under at the same date in the five previous years. The European Commission put EU ending stocks at 13.49 Mt on 30 October, against 20.30 Mt last season, the smallest since 2015/16 (12.12 Mt). Ukraine, the EU's main supplier, had shipped only 0.32 Mt of corn by week 44, against 0.36 to 1.70 Mt at the same week of the five previous seasons. The way out is US corn, and it holds conviction low: at 9 November prices and 5 November freight rates, US corn would land in Europe about $40/t under Euronext March converted to dollars. EU imports reached 1.92 Mt by week 44, against 0.60 to 2.16 Mt in the five previous seasons; until they speed up, the tension holds.

Soybeans

CBOT soybeans (bullish bias). Less US soybean is left to sell than at this point of recent seasons. Sales cover 65.5% of the USDA programme of 46.13 Mt and leave 15.90 Mt to sell, against 21.63 to 26.57 Mt at the same week in the five previous seasons. The market pays little to store beans: March trades 6.75 c/bu over January, under the lower quarter for the date (7.50 c/bu) and a median of 11 c/bu. Conviction is low because Brazil is cutting its price to take over. US beans were offered $7.25/t under Brazilian beans FOB on 7 November and only $2.75/t under on 9 November, and at 9 November prices and 5 November freight rates Brazilian beans land in China about $17/t under US beans. China, the main buyer, crushed 1.92 Mt in week 45, from 2.13 Mt the week before and against 2.12 Mt a year earlier, on soybean stocks of 7.87 Mt, against 2.69 to 7.62 Mt in the same week of the five previous seasons. US sales are largely done, and the next Chinese cargoes look set to come from South America.

CBOT soybean meal (bearish bias). US plants crush for oil and turn out meal that has to find buyers. The crush margin stands at $92.12/t, against $66.23/t a year earlier, and plants processed 5.34 Mt of soybeans in September, against 5.38 Mt last season and 4.18 to 4.82 Mt in the four seasons before. Meal export sales reached 6.45 Mt by week 45; on the patterns of the five previous seasons they would end between 16.0 and 20.6 Mt, against a USDA programme of 20.59 Mt. Gulf buyers pay less for it: the US Gulf meal premium over CBOT December fell to $48.50/t on 9 November from $59.50/t on 2 November, against a median of $59/t in November of recent years. Conviction is low because week 45 sales were strong, at 0.39 Mt against 0.17 to 0.40 Mt in the same week of the five previous seasons, and because most of the drop in the premium came in a single session.

CBOT soybean oil (bearish bias). The US soybean oil balance is loosening. The curve now pays to store oil, with July 1.47 c/lb over December, the widest this year, when in spring it paid for oil on hand, with July 3.11 c/lb under December on 5 May. US soybean oil futures stand $199/t over Argentine oil FOB, against an average of $355/t in June and $261/t in October: US oil is losing the premium that kept it out of competition. Conviction is low because US stocks are thin, at 0.478 Mt at the end of September against 0.484 to 0.764 Mt at the same point of the five previous seasons, a figure now a month old, and because renewable diesel makers keep a wide margin, at $802.24/t on 6 November against $91.07/t a year earlier.

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Rapeseed and canola

Euronext rapeseed (bearish bias). France has more rapeseed than its crushers need, and the market says so. May trades €2.25/t over February, when the norm at this date is a discount of €1.38/t. French collectors held 2.17 Mt at the end of September, the largest in recent years, against 1.67 to 2.02 Mt in the five previous seasons, and EU seed imports reached only 1.19 Mt by week 44, against 1.23 to 2.37 Mt. Conviction is low because the surplus is modest: the European Commission sees 2026/27 EU supply 1.4 Mt smaller than last season, and Rouen cash, at €4.50/t under February, sits close to its median of €5.50/t under.

ICE canola (bullish bias). Canada crushes and exports faster than its crop allows. August-September crush ran 31% above last season, and exports reached 2.21 Mt by week 44, against 1.42 Mt last season; week 44 alone shipped 0.32 Mt, against 0.12 to 0.27 Mt in the same week of the five previous seasons. Supply is the same size as last year, at 23.94 Mt of opening stocks plus crop against 23.83 Mt, so at this pace ending stocks would fall well below the 1.97 Mt StatCan projects. Conviction is low because grain is still plentiful today: March trades CAD 11.30/t over January, against a median of CAD 6.90/t, and Saskatchewan farm cash stands CAD 66.09/t under ICE January, against a median of CAD 31.50/t under. Both have started to narrow, from CAD 12/t and CAD 71.55/t on 6 November.

What changed today

• Euronext milling wheat: from bullish bias to bullish, as Rouen cash moved above futures and March widened its discount to December.
• CBOT soybeans: from bullish to bullish bias, as Brazil cut its price toward the US level and Chinese crushing slowed.
• CBOT soybean oil: from neutral to bearish bias, as the curve paid more to store oil and the US premium over Argentine oil narrowed.

To watch: Rouen wheat cash and the Euronext wheat curve, EU wheat exports, Russian wheat shipments for November and the Argentine wheat harvest, the Euronext corn curve and Bordeaux corn cash, EU corn imports and Ukrainian corn shipments, weekly US export sales of corn, soybeans and soybean meal, the CBOT corn, soybean, soybean meal and soybean oil curves, US Gulf cash premiums for wheat, corn and soybean meal, US and Brazilian soybean prices at origin and in China, Chinese soybean crushing, US soybean oil stocks for October and biofuel use, the US premium over Argentine soybean oil, the Euronext rapeseed curve, French collector stocks for October, Canadian October crush and weekly canola exports, the ICE canola curve and Saskatchewan cash, and the November USDA balances.