Desk View — 9 November 2026: France pays for wheat and corn on hand as Ukrainian corn ships slowly

French buyers pay for grain they can have now: Rouen milling wheat cash stood level with Euronext December on 4 November and Bordeaux corn cash €2.75/t over Euronext March, both firmer than at this point of recent years. Ukraine, the EU's main corn supplier, has shipped only 0.32 Mt of its new crop by week 44, and the European Commission now sees EU corn stocks at their smallest since 2015/16. We are bullish on CBOT soybeans, Euronext milling wheat, Euronext corn and ICE canola, bearish on CBOT corn, CBOT soybean meal and Euronext rapeseed, and neutral on CBOT SRW wheat, KC HRW wheat and CBOT soybean oil.

Wheat

Euronext milling wheat (bullish bias). The French market pays for wheat it can load now and will not pay to store it. Rouen cash stood level with Euronext December on 4 November, from €0.75/t under on 3 November and against a median of €3.75/t under. That is firmer than at the same date in every year from 2017 to 2025, when it ranged from €6.25/t to €0.25/t under; only 2016, at €1.75/t over, was firmer. The curve says the same: Euronext March trades €2.50/t under December, when the median structure at this date is a carry of €3.50/t. Both balance sheets see EU stocks falling: the European Commission cut its 2026/27 ending stocks forecast to 10.60 Mt on 30 October, from 11.42 Mt a month earlier and against 15.45 Mt last season, and USDA sees 11.72 Mt against 18.97 Mt. Conviction is low because supply in reserve is real. French collectors held 12.39 Mt of wheat at the end of September, second only to 13.32 Mt in 2021/22 among recent seasons. Russia has wheat it is not moving: it shipped 8.68 Mt by the end of October, about half the 17.64 Mt average of the five previous seasons, on ending stocks USDA puts at 19.09 Mt against 11.99 Mt last season. And Argentina has started harvesting, with 8% of its wheat cut by week 45, against 1% to 14% at the same week of the five previous seasons.

Explore this chart in GrainBoard →

CBOT SRW wheat (neutral). Soft red wheat has no imbalance of its own. US Gulf SRW cash stands $41.50/t over CBOT December, but Gulf corn is almost as firm, at $40.69/t over CBOT December, so wheat earns only $0.81/t more than corn: buyers pay for grain loaded at the Gulf, not for soft red wheat in particular. The curve still pays to store wheat, with March 11.50 c/bu over December, above the lower quarter for the date (10.31 c/bu) though under the median of 16.50 c/bu. The US balance is not tight: the crop is smaller, at 41.74 Mt against 54.14 Mt last season, but USDA expects exports to shrink with it, so ending stocks of 20.14 Mt still cover 39.8% of a year's domestic use and exports, against 30.4% to 44.9% in the five previous seasons. Export sales cover 59.1% of the USDA programme of 20.41 Mt, against 58.8% to 68.0% at the same week in the five previous seasons, and US SRW is offered $6.50/t over French wheat FOB.

KC HRW wheat (neutral). Hard red winter keeps its premium over soft red wheat, and no export buyer pays for it. HRW sells $28.75/t over SRW FOB at the US Gulf, below its median of $34.25/t and well inside the $12.75 to $49/t between the lower and upper quarters. On futures, KC trades 41.25 c/bu over Chicago, or $15.16/t, so the cash premium now exceeds the futures premium by $13.59/t, against $16.34/t the session before: futures priced the HRW premium a little faster than cash, over a single session. Abroad, US wheat lands in Egypt $49.25/t above French wheat, too dear to compete.

Corn

CBOT corn (bearish bias). US corn has not found its export buyers. Sales reached 24.79 Mt by week 45, only 29.6% of the USDA export programme of 83.82 Mt, against 33.7% to 49.4% of final exports at the same week in the five previous seasons. Even if the rest of the season followed the most favourable of those patterns, exports would end 10.2 Mt short of the programme. The market pays to store what is left: March trades 13.75 c/bu over December, above the upper quarter for the date (12.50 c/bu) and a median of 9.25 c/bu. Conviction is low because a strong ethanol grind slows the slide: plants produced 1.14 million barrels a day in week 44, against 1.04 to 1.12 million in the same week of the five previous seasons, and the ethanol margin rose to $107.77/t on 6 November from $102.17/t a week earlier, against $87.15/t a year earlier. USDA also already sees ending stocks falling, to 46.97 Mt from 53.22 Mt.

Euronext corn (bullish bias). Europe is short of corn now. The curve pays more for corn in March than in June, with June €2/t under March, when the median at this date is a carry of €2.88/t and even the lower quarter a carry of €1.25/t. Bordeaux cash confirms it, at €2.75/t over Euronext March, against €13/t under to €2.50/t over at the same date in the five previous years. The European Commission cut its EU ending stocks forecast to 13.49 Mt on 30 October, from 15.08 Mt a month earlier and against 20.30 Mt last season, on a crop of 47.0 Mt against 60.2 Mt: the smallest stocks since 2015/16 (12.12 Mt). Ukraine, the EU's main supplier, is slow to fill the gap, with 0.32 Mt of corn shipped by week 44, against 0.36 to 1.70 Mt at the same week of the five previous seasons. The way out exists, and it holds conviction low: US corn lands in Europe at $239.60/t C&F, $35.7/t under Euronext March converted to dollars. Until imports speed up the tension holds; EU imports stood at 1.92 Mt by week 44, against 0.60 to 2.16 Mt in the five previous seasons.

Explore this chart in GrainBoard →

Soybeans

CBOT soybeans (bullish). Less US soybean is left to sell than at this point of recent seasons. Sales cover 65.5% of the USDA programme of 46.13 Mt and leave 15.90 Mt to sell, against 21.63 to 26.57 Mt at the same week in the five previous seasons. The market pays less and less to store beans: March trades 5.50 c/bu over January, against 8 c/bu the session before, under the lower quarter for the date (7.50 c/bu) and a median of 11 c/bu. US beans are also offered $7.25/t under Brazilian beans FOB. The brake is China, the main buyer: Brazilian beans land there $14.27/t under US beans, and Chinese soybean stocks stood at 7.78 Mt in week 44, against 2.88 to 7.11 Mt in the same week of the five previous seasons.

CBOT soybean meal (bearish bias). US plants crush for oil and turn out meal that has to find buyers. The crush margin stands at $89.75/t, against $63.20/t a year earlier, and plants processed 5.34 Mt of soybeans in September, against 5.38 Mt last season and 4.18 to 4.82 Mt in the four seasons before. Export sales reached 6.45 Mt by week 45; on the seasonal patterns of the five previous seasons they would end between 15.5 and 20.1 Mt, short of the USDA programme of 20.59 Mt. Meal that is not exported adds to US stocks that USDA projects at only 0.41 Mt, so it has to find other buyers at home or sell at a lower price. Conviction is low because week 45 sales were strong, at 0.39 Mt against 0.17 to 0.40 Mt in the same week of the five previous seasons, and because no price confirms a surplus yet: May trades only $5.40 per short ton over December.

CBOT soybean oil (neutral). US soybean oil stocks are low, but nobody competes for them. Stocks stood at 0.478 Mt at the end of September, the lowest in recent years, against 0.484 to 0.764 Mt at the same point of the five previous seasons. Yet the curve pays more and more to store oil, with July 1.41 c/lb over December, the widest this year, and US soybean oil futures stand $211/t over Argentine oil FOB, against $261/t on average in October. The renewable diesel margin rose to $790.51/t on 6 November from $763.75/t on 30 October, against $91.07/t a year earlier, because its feedstock got cheaper, with December soybean oil at 62.26 c/lb against 65.90 c/lb, not because fuel demand pulls harder.

Rapeseed and canola

Euronext rapeseed (bearish bias). Europe has more rapeseed than its crushers need. French collectors held 2.17 Mt at the end of September, the largest in recent years, against 1.67 to 2.02 Mt in the five previous seasons; EU seed imports reached only 1.19 Mt by week 44, against 1.23 to 2.37 Mt; and the European Commission puts 2026/27 EU use at 25.30 Mt, against 26.48 Mt last season. The market pays to store: May trades €3/t over February, when the norm at this date is a €1.50/t discount. Biodiesel makers pay a high price for rapeseed oil, with the EU rapeseed biodiesel margin at $408.71/t on 6 November against $12.66/t a year earlier, but that does not get more seed crushed: EU plants processed 4.52 Mt from July to September, against 4.56 to 4.83 Mt in the five previous seasons. Conviction is low because the surplus is modest and Rouen does not confirm it: cash stands €4.75/t under February, close to its median of €5.50/t under.

ICE canola (bullish bias). Canada crushes and exports faster than its crop allows. August-September crush runs 31% above last season, and exports reached 2.21 Mt by week 44, against 1.42 Mt last season; week 44 alone shipped 0.32 Mt, against 0.12 to 0.27 Mt in the same week of the five previous seasons. Supply is the same size as last year, at 23.94 Mt of opening stocks plus crop against 23.83 Mt, so at this pace ending stocks would fall well below the 1.97 Mt StatCan projects. Conviction is low because the shortage belongs to the end of the season: today grain is plentiful, the curve pays to store, with March CAD 12/t over January against a median of CAD 6.90/t, and Saskatchewan farm cash stands CAD 71.55/t under ICE January, against a median of CAD 31.50/t under.

What changed today

None of our views changed today.

To watch: Rouen wheat cash and the Euronext wheat curve, EU wheat exports, Russian wheat shipments for November and the Argentine wheat harvest, the Euronext corn curve and Bordeaux corn cash, EU corn imports and Ukrainian corn shipments, weekly US export sales of corn, soybeans and soybean meal, the CBOT corn, soybean, soybean meal and soybean oil curves, US Gulf cash premiums for wheat and corn, US and Brazilian soybean prices in China, US soybean oil stocks for October and biofuel use, renewable diesel margins, the Euronext rapeseed curve, French collector stocks for October, Canadian October crush and weekly canola exports, the ICE canola curve and Saskatchewan cash, and the November USDA balances.