Desk View — 6 November 2026: US soybeans sell ahead of recent seasons, while US corn sales trail the export programme
US soybean export buyers have already taken two thirds of the season's programme, while US corn sales lag and the CBOT corn curve pays to store the rest. We are bullish on CBOT soybeans, Euronext milling wheat, Euronext corn and ICE canola, bearish on CBOT corn, CBOT soybean meal and Euronext rapeseed, and neutral on CBOT SRW wheat, KC HRW wheat and CBOT soybean oil.
Conviction board
| Product | Contract | View | In one line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milling Wheat | Euronext | Bullish bias | The market does not pay to store wheat, Rouen cash is firm and EU stocks fall as feed buyers swap corn for wheat. Full French silos, Russian wheat still to ship and cheaper Argentine wheat in North Africa hold conviction down. |
| SRW Wheat | CBOT | Neutral | The curve stays above its usual seasonal range low, and firm Gulf cash is shared by every crop. A smaller US crop faces comfortable stocks, sales with no lead on the programme and an offer above French wheat. |
| HRW Wheat | CBOT | Neutral | Hard red winter keeps its usual premium over soft red with no buyer paying for it: US wheat lands in Egypt well above French wheat. |
| Corn | CBOT | Bearish bias | US sales cover a smaller share of the export programme than in recent seasons, and the curve pays more than usual to store. Cheap US corn, a strong ethanol grind and lower projected stocks hold conviction down. |
| Corn | Euronext | Bullish bias | Europe is short of corn after a halved French crop: the curve and Bordeaux cash pay for grain on hand, and EU stocks are the lowest in years. Imports, with US corn landing well under Euronext, are the way out. |
| Soybeans | CBOT | Bullish | Two thirds of the US export programme is sold, the largest share in recent seasons, and US beans undercut Brazil while Gulf cash is firm. High Chinese stocks are the brake. |
| Soybean Meal | CBOT | Bearish bias | Plants crush hard for oil, and meal export sales are on course to fall short of the programme against near-empty projected stocks. Strong recent sales and no confirming price hold conviction down. |
| Soybean Oil | CBOT | Neutral | US stocks are at recent lows, but the curve pays more to store than at any point this year and the US premium over Argentine oil narrows: low stocks nobody bids for set no direction. |
| Rapeseed | Euronext | Bearish bias | Large French collector stocks, weak EU imports and crush, and a curve that pays to store where the season usually brings a discount. Strong crush and biodiesel margins could draw seed back into plants. |
| Canola | ICE | Bullish bias | Canadian crush and exports run far ahead of last year on the same supply, a pace stocks cannot sustain. The curve still pays to store, farm cash is weak and canola is dear against soybeans. |
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US soybeans keep finding export buyers faster than in recent seasons: sales reached 30.23 Mt by week 45, 65.5% of the USDA programme against 41.7% to 59.8% at the same week in the five previous seasons. US corn sales trail their programme instead, and the CBOT corn curve pays to store what export buyers have not taken. We are bullish on CBOT soybeans, Euronext milling wheat, Euronext corn and ICE canola, bearish on CBOT corn, CBOT soybean meal and Euronext rapeseed, and neutral on CBOT SRW wheat, KC HRW wheat and CBOT soybean oil.
Wheat
Euronext milling wheat (bullish bias). The French market does not pay to hold wheat into spring, because there is little spare wheat to sell now. Euronext March trades €1/t under December, when the median structure at this date is a carry of €3.25/t, and Rouen cash stands €0.75/t under December, firmer than in any year at this date since 2016, when it stood €0.25/t over, and against €1/t to €5.75/t under in the five previous years. Both balance sheets see EU ending stocks falling: USDA to 11.72 Mt from 18.97 Mt, the European Commission to 10.60 Mt from 15.45 Mt. Feed demand adds to the pull: wheat trades €23/t under corn on the nearby Euronext contracts, against a median of €10.50/t over, so feed buyers swap scarce corn for wheat. Conviction is low because French collectors held 12.39 Mt of wheat at the end of September, second only to 13.32 Mt in 2021/22 among recent seasons. Russia also has wheat to ship: it moved only 8.68 Mt by the end of October, about half the 17.64 Mt average of the five previous seasons at that point, on ending stocks of 19.09 Mt against 11.99 Mt last season. And Argentine wheat lands in Algeria and Morocco $4.75/t under French wheat.
CBOT SRW wheat (neutral). Soft red wheat has no imbalance of its own. The curve has narrowed, with March 10.50 c/bu over December against 13 c/bu on 2 November, but it stays above the lower quarter for the date (10.31 c/bu), against a median of 16.38 c/bu. US Gulf cash is firm, at $41.56/t over CBOT December, but Gulf corn is almost as firm, at $40.78/t over CBOT against a median of $30/t, so wheat earns only $0.78/t more than corn: the premium reflects Gulf export logistics shared by every crop, not scarce soft red wheat. The US crop is smaller, at 41.74 Mt against 54.14 Mt last season, but ending stocks stay at 20.14 Mt, against 25.04 Mt. Export sales cover 59.1% of the USDA programme of 20.41 Mt, against 58.8% to 68.0% at the same week in the five previous seasons, and US SRW is offered $7.50/t over French wheat FOB.
KC HRW wheat (neutral). Hard red winter keeps its premium over soft red wheat, and no buyer pays for it. HRW sells $29.75/t over SRW FOB at the US Gulf, close to its median of $34.25/t and well inside the $12.75 to $49/t between the lower and upper quarters. Abroad, US wheat lands in Egypt $47.25/t above French wheat, too dear to compete there.
Corn
CBOT corn (bearish bias). US corn has not found its export buyers. Sales reached 24.79 Mt by week 45, 5% below the 26.14 Mt average of the five previous seasons, and cover only 29.6% of the USDA export programme of 83.82 Mt, against 33.7% to 49.4% of final exports at the same week in those seasons. Even if the rest of the season ran like the slowest start among those five, exports would end 10.2 Mt short of the programme. The market pays to store what is left: March trades 14.50 c/bu over December, above the upper quarter for the date (12.69 c/bu) and a median of 9.25 c/bu. Conviction is low because US corn is already cheaper than Brazilian and Argentine corn delivered to Europe ($241/t C&F, against $246.50/t and $248.50/t) and to Egypt ($259/t, against $261.50/t and $268/t), because ethanol plants grind hard, at 1.14 million barrels a day in week 44 against 1.04 to 1.12 million in the same week of the five previous seasons, and because USDA already sees ending stocks falling, to 46.97 Mt from 53.22 Mt.
Euronext corn (bullish bias). Europe is short of corn now, after France harvested 6.63 Mt against 12.99 Mt last season. The curve still pays more for March than for June, at €0.75/t under, against a median of €2.75/t over at this date, although it narrowed from €2.25/t under the session before. Physical corn confirms the shortage: Bordeaux cash stands €2.25/t over March, against €11.50/t under to €2/t over at the same date in the five previous years. USDA puts EU ending stocks at 5.05 Mt, the lowest since 2007/08 (4.73 Mt). The way out is imports, and it is what holds conviction low: US corn lands in Europe $34.8/t under Euronext March converted to dollars. EU imports reached 1.92 Mt by week 44, against 0.60 to 2.16 Mt in the five previous seasons and a USDA figure of 23.5 Mt for the season, and the narrowing of the curve may be the first sign of that relief.
Soybeans
CBOT soybeans (bullish). Export demand has already taken a larger share of what the US has to sell this season than in recent years. Sales cover 65.5% of the USDA programme of 46.13 Mt and leave 15.90 Mt to sell, against 21.63 to 26.57 Mt at the same week in the five previous seasons; at the pace of any of those seasons, sales would end above the programme. The flow is not slowing: week 45 sales reached 1.45 Mt, against a median of 1.25 Mt for that week. Buyers come because US beans are offered $7.50/t under Brazilian beans FOB, and US Gulf cash pays $46.39/t over CBOT January against a median of $27.87/t, while the curve does not pay to carry beans: March trades 8 c/bu over January, against a median of 11 c/bu. The brake is China, the main buyer, where US beans land $12.50/t above Brazilian beans and soybean stocks stood at 7.78 Mt in week 44, against 2.88 to 7.11 Mt in the same week of the five previous seasons.
CBOT soybean meal (bearish bias). Meal is the by-product of plants that crush for oil, and the US crush margin keeps them running hard. The margin stands at $89.97/t, against $65.16/t a year earlier; plants processed 5.34 Mt of soybeans in September, against 5.38 Mt last season and 4.18 to 4.82 Mt in the four seasons before, and USDA expects 59.69 Mt of meal against 57.07 Mt. Export sales reached 6.45 Mt by week 45, 31.3% of the programme of 20.59 Mt; on the median seasonal pattern of the five previous seasons they would end near 18.0 Mt, 2.6 Mt short, a large volume next to projected ending stocks of 0.41 Mt. Conviction is low because week 45 sales were strong, at 0.39 Mt against 0.17 to 0.40 Mt in the same week of the five previous seasons, and because no price confirms the surplus yet: May trades $5.80 per short ton over December, a modest carry.
CBOT soybean oil (neutral). US soybean oil stocks are low, at 0.478 Mt at the end of September, the lowest in recent years, against 0.484 to 0.764 Mt at the same point in the five previous seasons, and biofuel plants used 0.63 Mt in August, against 0.42 to 0.55 Mt in the previous four Augusts. But nobody competes for the oil on hand: the market pays to store it, with July 1.34 c/lb over December, the widest carry this year, and US soybean oil futures stand $209/t over Argentine oil FOB, against $261/t on average in October. The renewable diesel margin rose to $807.37/t on 6 November from $763.75/t on 30 October, against $91.07/t a year earlier, but it rose because its feedstock got cheaper, with December soybean oil at 62.24 c/lb against 65.90 c/lb on 30 October, not because fuel demand pulls harder. Low stocks that the market does not bid for set no direction.
Rapeseed and canola
Euronext rapeseed (bearish bias). Europe has more rapeseed than it uses: stocks are large, while crush and imports run low. The market pays to store: May trades €2.75/t over February, when the norm at this date is a €1.50/t discount. French collectors held 2.17 Mt at the end of September, the largest in recent years, against 1.67 to 2.02 Mt in the five previous seasons. EU crushers processed only 4.52 Mt from July to September, against 4.56 to 4.83 Mt, and EU seed imports reached only 1.19 Mt by week 44, against 1.23 to 2.37 Mt. Conviction is low because downstream pays well for rapeseed oil: the EU rapeseed biodiesel margin stands at $258.58/t on 6 November against $12.66/t a year earlier, the French crush margin at €226/t against €171.08/t, and Rouen cash, at €6/t under February, sits near its median of €5.50/t under.
ICE canola (bullish bias). Canada is crushing and exporting far faster than last year from a supply of the same size. August-September crush runs 31% above last season and exports reached 1.89 Mt by week 43, 54% ahead of the 1.23 Mt of last season, on opening stocks plus crop of 23.94 Mt against 23.83 Mt. At that pace, ending stocks would fall well below the 1.97 Mt StatCan projects, and demand would have to be rationed. Conviction is low because the physical market does not pay for that scarcity yet: the curve pays to store, with March CAD 11.90/t over January against a median of CAD 6.90/t, and Saskatchewan farm cash stands CAD 72.45/t under ICE January, against a median of CAD 31.50/t under. Canola is also dear against soybeans, which trade $100.73/t under it against a median of $47.49/t.
What changed today
None of our views changed today.
To watch: weekly US export sales of soybeans, corn and soybean meal, Chinese soybean stocks, US and Brazilian soybean C&F prices in China, US soybean oil stocks and biofuel use, renewable diesel margins, the CBOT corn, soybean, soybean meal and soybean oil curves, US Gulf cash premiums, EU corn imports, the Euronext corn curve and Bordeaux corn cash, Rouen wheat cash and the Euronext wheat curve, EU wheat exports, French port loadings and Russian wheat shipments for November, Argentine and French wheat prices in North Africa, the Euronext rapeseed curve and EU rapeseed crush for October, Canadian October crush and weekly canola exports, the ICE canola curve and Saskatchewan cash, and the November USDA balances.
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