Desk View — 5 November 2026: Europe pays more for wheat and corn on hand, while the US pays to store corn that export buyers have not taken
Euronext prices wheat and corn for prompt delivery above later months, while the CBOT corn curve pays to store a crop that sells slowly abroad. We are bullish on CBOT soybeans, Euronext milling wheat, Euronext corn and ICE canola, bearish on CBOT corn, CBOT soybean meal and Euronext rapeseed, and neutral on CBOT SRW wheat, KC HRW wheat and CBOT soybean oil.
Conviction board
| Product | Contract | View | In one line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milling Wheat | Euronext | Bullish bias | Low conviction | The market does not pay to store wheat, Rouen cash is firm and EU stocks fall as feed buyers swap corn for wheat. Full French silos, slow Russian shipments still to come and cheaper Argentine wheat in North Africa hold conviction down. |
| SRW Wheat | CBOT | Neutral | The curve narrows no more than the season usually brings, and firm Gulf cash reflects logistics shared by every crop. A smaller US crop faces comfortable stocks and an offer priced above French wheat. |
| HRW Wheat | CBOT | Neutral | Hard red winter keeps its premium over soft red with no buyer paying for it: US wheat lands in Egypt well above French wheat. |
| Corn | CBOT | Bearish bias | US sales trail the export programme even at the pace of the best recent season, and the curve pays more than usual to store. Cheap US corn, a strong ethanol grind and lower projected stocks hold conviction down. |
| Corn | Euronext | Bullish bias | Europe is short of corn after a halved French crop: the curve and cash in Bordeaux and Constanta pay for grain on hand. Imports, with US corn landing well under Euronext, are the way out. |
| Soybeans | CBOT | Bullish | The largest share of the US programme sold in recent seasons leaves the least to sell, US beans undercut Brazil and the curve no longer pays to store. High Chinese stocks are the brake. |
| Soybean Meal | CBOT | Bearish bias | Plants crush hard for oil, and meal export sales are on course to fall short of the programme against near-empty projected stocks. No price confirms it yet, and lower energy could slow the crush. |
| Soybean Oil | CBOT | Neutral | US stocks are at recent lows and biofuel demand is strong, but the curve keeps a modest carry and crude oil has lost its tightness: low stocks nobody bids for set no direction. |
| Rapeseed | Euronext | Bearish bias | Large French collector stocks, weak EU imports and crush, and a curve that pays to store where the season usually brings a discount. High crush and biodiesel margins could draw seed back into plants. |
| Canola | ICE | Bullish bias | Canadian crush and exports run far ahead of last year on the same supply, a pace stocks cannot sustain. The curve still pays to store, farm cash is weak and canola is dear against soybeans. |
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Europe pays more for wheat and corn on hand than for later delivery: Euronext March wheat trades €1.25/t under December, against a median of €3.25/t over at this date, and June corn €2.25/t under March, against a median of €2.75/t over. In the US, the corn market pays to store a crop that export buyers have not yet taken, while soybeans keep selling. We are bullish on CBOT soybeans, Euronext milling wheat, Euronext corn and ICE canola, bearish on CBOT corn, CBOT soybean meal and Euronext rapeseed, and neutral on CBOT SRW wheat, KC HRW wheat and CBOT soybean oil.
Wheat
Euronext milling wheat (bullish bias). The European market does not pay to hold wheat into spring, because France has no spare wheat to sell now. March trades €1.25/t under December when the usual structure at this date is a carry, and Rouen cash stands €0.75/t under December, the firmest at this date since 2016 (€0.25/t over) and against €1/t to €5.75/t under in the five previous years. Both balance sheets see EU ending stocks falling: USDA to 11.72 Mt from 18.97 Mt, the European Commission to 10.60 Mt from 15.45 Mt. Feed demand adds to the pull: wheat trades €23.75/t under corn on the nearby Euronext contracts, against a median of €10.50/t over, so feed buyers swap scarce corn for wheat. Conviction is low because French silos are full, with collectors holding 12.39 Mt at the end of September, second only to 13.32 Mt in 2021/22 among recent seasons. Russia also has wheat to ship: it moved only 8.68 Mt by the end of October, about half the 17.64 Mt average of the five previous seasons at that point, on ending stocks of 19.09 Mt against 11.99 Mt last season. And Argentine wheat already lands in Algeria and Morocco $5.75/t under French wheat.
CBOT SRW wheat (neutral). Soft red wheat has no imbalance of its own. The curve has tightened, with March 11 c/bu over December against 13 c/bu on 2 November, but it sits just above the lower quarter for the date (10.69 c/bu) as the season usually narrows it, against a median of 16.50 c/bu. US Gulf cash is firm, at $40.88/t over CBOT December, but Gulf corn is just as firm, $41.30/t over CBOT against a median of $30/t, and Gulf soybeans $45.68/t against $27.85/t: the premium reflects Gulf export logistics shared by every crop, not scarce soft red wheat. The US crop is smaller, at 41.74 Mt against 54.14 Mt last season, but ending stocks stay at 20.14 Mt, against 25.04 Mt, and US SRW is offered $7/t over French wheat FOB, too dear to win export business.
KC HRW wheat (neutral). Hard red winter keeps its premium over soft red wheat, and no buyer pays for it. HRW sells $30.25/t over SRW FOB at the US Gulf, close to its median of $34.25/t and well inside the $12.75 to $49/t between the lower and upper quarters. Abroad, US wheat lands in Egypt $47.25/t above French wheat, out of any export race.
Corn
CBOT corn (bearish bias). US corn has not found its export buyers. Sales cover 28.0% of the USDA export programme of 83.82 Mt, when the five previous seasons had sold 31.9% to 47.4% of their final USDA exports by the same week; even at the pace of the fastest of them, exports would end 10.2 Mt short of the programme. The market pays to store what is left: March trades 14 c/bu over December, above the upper quarter for the date (12.75 c/bu) and a median of 9.25 c/bu. Conviction is low because US corn is already cheaper than Brazilian and Argentine corn delivered to Europe ($242.50/t C&F, against $249/t and $249.25/t) and to Egypt ($260.50/t, against $262.25/t and $270.50/t), because ethanol plants grind hard, at 1.14 million barrels a day in week 44 against 1.04 to 1.12 million in the same week of the five previous seasons, and because USDA already sees ending stocks falling, to 46.97 Mt from 53.22 Mt.
Euronext corn (bullish bias). Europe is short of corn now, after France harvested 6.63 Mt against 12.99 Mt last season. The curve pays more for March than for June, at €2.25/t under against a median of €2.75/t over, matching the lowest level seen at this date in recent seasons. Physical corn confirms it: Bordeaux cash stands €2.25/t over March, against €11.50/t under to €2/t over at the same date in the five previous years, and Constanta corn trades $92.80/t over CBOT against a median of $37.57/t. USDA puts EU ending stocks at 5.05 Mt, the lowest since 2007/08 (4.73 Mt). The way out is imports, and it is what holds conviction low: US corn lands in Europe $36/t under Euronext March converted to dollars, and imports, at 1.92 Mt by week 44 against a USDA figure of 23.5 Mt for the season, only keep the tension from worsening as long as they run at their usual pace.
Soybeans
CBOT soybeans (bullish). Export demand has already taken a larger share of what the US has to sell this season than in recent years. Sales cover 62.4% of the USDA programme of 46.13 Mt, against 38.7% to 58.4% at the same week in the five previous seasons, and leave 17.35 Mt to sell, against 22.39 to 28.43 Mt. At the pace of any of those five seasons, sales would end above the programme. US beans are offered $9.25/t under Brazilian beans FOB, US Gulf cash pays $45.68/t over CBOT January against a median of $27.85/t, and the curve no longer pays to carry beans: March trades 8 c/bu over January, against a median of 11 c/bu. The brake is China, the main buyer, which is served slightly cheaper by Brazil: its soybean stocks stood at 7.78 Mt in week 44, against 2.88 to 7.11 Mt in the same week of the five previous seasons, and its meal stocks at 1.39 Mt, against 0.19 to 1.15 Mt.
CBOT soybean meal (bearish bias). Meal is the by-product of plants that crush for oil, and the US crush margin keeps them running hard. The margin stands at $91.29/t, against $62.83/t a year earlier; plants processed 5.34 Mt of soybeans in September, against 5.38 Mt last season and 4.18 to 4.82 Mt in the four seasons before, and USDA expects 59.69 Mt of meal against 57.07 Mt. Export sales, at 6.06 Mt by week 44 and projected on the usual seasonal pattern, would end 2.8 Mt short of the programme of 20.59 Mt, a large volume next to projected ending stocks of only 0.41 Mt. The curve shows no tension, with May $3.30 per short ton over December against $7 under on 12 October. Conviction is low because no physical price confirms the surplus yet, because Brazilian plants, on a margin of $6.07/t against $23.24/t a year earlier, are set to slow, and because lower energy prices would trim the US oil margin that drives the crush.
CBOT soybean oil (neutral). US soybean oil stocks are low, at 0.478 Mt at the end of September, the lowest in recent years, against 0.484 to 0.764 Mt at the same point in the five previous seasons, and biofuel demand is strong: plants used 0.63 Mt in August, against 0.42 to 0.55 Mt in the previous four Augusts, on a renewable diesel margin of $763.75/t on 30 October against $82.70/t a year earlier. But nobody competes for the oil on hand: the curve keeps a modest carry, with July 1.26 c/lb over December, and crude oil, which sets the renewable diesel margin, has lost its tightness, with Brent January $6.35 a barrel over April against $10.19 on 30 October. Low stocks that the market does not bid for set no direction.
Rapeseed and canola
Euronext rapeseed (bearish bias). Europe has more rapeseed than its crushers want, because soybeans are cheaper. The market pays to store: May trades €4.25/t over February, when the norm at this date is a €1.50/t discount. French collectors held 2.17 Mt at the end of September, the largest in recent years, against 1.67 to 2.02 Mt in the five previous seasons. EU crushers processed only 4.52 Mt from July to September, against 4.56 to 4.83 Mt, as soybeans trade $151.26/t under rapeseed against a median of $95.37/t, and EU seed imports reached only 1.19 Mt by week 44, against 1.23 to 2.37 Mt. Conviction is low because downstream still pays well for rapeseed oil: the French crush margin is €226/t against €168.68/t a year earlier, the EU rapeseed biodiesel margin $228.83/t on 30 October against $35.42/t, and Rouen cash, at €6/t under February, sits near its median of €5.50/t under. Crushers can start drawing seed again.
ICE canola (bullish bias). Canada is crushing and exporting far faster than last year from a supply of the same size. August-September crush runs 31% above last season and exports reached 1.89 Mt by week 43, 54% ahead of the 1.23 Mt of last season, on opening stocks plus crop of 23.94 Mt against 23.83 Mt. At that pace, ending stocks would fall well below the 1.97 Mt StatCan projects, and demand would have to be rationed. Conviction is low because the physical market does not pay for that scarcity yet: the curve still pays to store, with March CAD 9.40/t over January against a median of CAD 6.90/t, and Saskatchewan farm cash stands CAD 73.58/t under ICE January, against a median of CAD 31.50/t under. Canola is also dear against soybeans, which trade $108.37/t under it against a median of $47.46/t.
What changed today
None of our views changed today.
To watch: weekly US export sales of soybeans, corn and soybean meal, Chinese soybean and meal stocks, US and Brazilian soybean C&F prices in China, US soybean oil stocks and biofuel use for September and October, renewable diesel margins and the Brent curve, the CBOT corn, soybean, soybean meal and soybean oil curves, US Gulf cash premiums, EU corn imports and the Euronext corn curve, Bordeaux corn cash, Rouen wheat cash and the Euronext wheat curve, EU wheat exports, French port loadings and Russian wheat shipments for November, Argentine and French wheat prices in North Africa, the Euronext rapeseed curve and EU rapeseed crush for October, Canadian October crush and weekly canola exports, the ICE canola curve and Saskatchewan cash, and the November USDA balances.
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