Desk View — 3 November 2026: US soybeans keep finding export buyers while US biofuel plants use less soybean oil

Buyers keep emptying the US soybean export book: sales cover 62.4% of the USDA programme, against 38.7% to 58.4% at the same week in the five previous seasons. The pull on US soybean oil has eased, with biofuel use falling back in August, while US corn sales trail their programme and Euronext still pays for corn on hand. We are bullish on CBOT soybeans, Euronext milling wheat, Euronext corn and ICE canola, bearish on CBOT corn, CBOT soybean meal and Euronext rapeseed, and neutral on CBOT SRW wheat, KC HRW wheat and CBOT soybean oil.

Wheat

Euronext milling wheat (bullish bias). The market will not pay to store wheat into spring, and no series shows a European surplus to carry. Euronext March trades €1/t under December, against a median of €3.25/t over at this date in recent seasons, and Rouen cash stands €0.75/t under December, against €1/t to €5.75/t under at the same date in the five previous years. Both balance sheets see EU ending stocks falling: USDA to 11.72 Mt from 18.97 Mt, the European Commission to 10.60 Mt from 15.45 Mt. The driver is not a wheat shortage but Europe's short corn crop: wheat trades €28/t under corn on the nearby Euronext contracts, against a median of €10.50/t over, so feed buyers turn to wheat and absorb what would otherwise be spare. Conviction is low because France has wheat: collectors held 12.39 Mt at the end of September, inside the 9.66 to 13.32 Mt of the five previous seasons, and French port loadings reached 2.25 Mt by week 45 against 2.70 Mt last season. Russia also holds ending stocks of 19.09 Mt, against 11.99 Mt last season, still to ship. The Argentine harvest reaching North Africa is not a risk in itself: it arrives every year in late November, and would weigh only if it came earlier or in larger volume than in past years.

CBOT SRW wheat (neutral). US Gulf soft red wheat cash is firm, at $40.15/t over CBOT December, but Gulf corn is just as firm, $39.53/t over CBOT against a long-run median of $30/t, and Gulf soybeans $44.42/t against a median of $27.84/t. The premium reflects Gulf export logistics, not scarce soft red wheat. The curve pays for storage as usual: March trades 13 c/bu over December, inside the 11.56 to 19.50 c/bu between the lower and upper quarters for the date. The US crop is smaller, at 41.74 Mt against 54.14 Mt last season, but ending stocks stay comfortable at 20.14 Mt, against 25.04 Mt, and US SRW is offered $10/t over French wheat FOB, too dear to win export business. Nothing leans either way.

KC HRW wheat (neutral). Hard red winter keeps its usual premium over soft red wheat, at the port and on the board. HRW sells $33.50/t over SRW FOB at the US Gulf, inside its range of $33 to $46.75/t since 6 October, and the gap between that physical premium and the premium on the futures board, $18.99/t, stays inside its $18.49 to $27.64/t range. Abroad, US wheat lands in Egypt $53.50/t above French wheat, so no export outlet pulls on hard red winter, and nothing depresses it either.

Corn

CBOT corn (bearish bias). US corn is waiting for buyers. Sales cover 28.0% of the USDA export programme of 83.82 Mt, when none of the five previous seasons stood below 32.8% of its final sales at this week; even at the pace of the best of them, sales would end 12.2 Mt short. The curve pays more to store: March trades 13.75 c/bu over December, against 13.25 c/bu on 30 October, above the upper quarter for the date (12.75 c/bu) and a median of 9.25 c/bu. Ethanol does not absorb the surplus either: US ethanol stocks stood at 24.52 million barrels in week 43, against 20.00 to 22.37 million in the same week of the five previous seasons. Conviction is low because US corn is already cheaper than Brazilian and Argentine corn delivered to Europe ($243/t C&F, against $247.50/t and $249.25/t) and to Egypt ($261/t, against $269/t and $262.25/t), sales respond to that price, and a late harvest, 74% done against 81% to 91% at the same week in four previous seasons, explains part of the delay.

Euronext corn (bullish bias). Europe pays for corn now because its crop is short. June trades €2.75/t under March, below anything seen at this date in recent seasons at every session since March became the front month, against a median of €3/t over. Physical corn confirms it: Bordeaux cash stands €2.25/t over March, against €11.50/t under to €2/t over at the same date in the five previous years, and Constanta corn trades $90.53/t over CBOT against a long-run median of $37.57/t. France harvested 6.63 Mt against 12.99 Mt last season, USDA puts EU ending stocks at 5.05 Mt, the lowest since 2007/08 (4.73 Mt), and the European Commission at 13.49 Mt against 20.30 Mt on its own accounting. The way out is visible, and it is what holds conviction low: US corn lands in Europe $43.63/t under Euronext March converted to dollars, and imports, at 1.92 Mt by week 44 against 1.76 Mt at the median pace of the five previous seasons applied to the USDA import figure of 23.5 Mt, keep to the programme and should end up filling the gap.

Soybeans

CBOT soybeans (bullish). Demand is emptying the US export book. Sales cover 62.4% of the USDA programme of 46.13 Mt, against 38.7% to 58.4% at the same week in the five previous seasons, and leave 17.35 Mt to sell, against 22.39 to 28.43 Mt. In volume, the 28.78 Mt sold by week 44 runs 14% above the five-season average for a programme smaller than in four of those seasons, and week 44 alone added 2.58 Mt, against 1.01 to 2.07 Mt in the same week of those seasons. US beans are offered $9.50/t under Brazilian beans FOB, and US Gulf cash pays $44.42/t over CBOT January, the firmest at this date since 2022 ($76.74/t). The risk is China: its soybean stocks stood at 7.78 Mt in week 44, against 2.88 to 7.11 Mt in the same week of the five previous seasons, and slower Chinese buying would show first in US weekly sales.

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CBOT soybean meal (bearish bias). Three weeks ago the market paid for meal on hand; it now pays to store it, with May $6.20 per short ton over December against $7 under on 12 October. US plants run hard because crushing pays: the crush margin stands at $93.15/t, against $65.27/t a year earlier, and plants processed 5.34 Mt in September, second only to the 5.38 Mt of last season and against 4.18 to 4.82 Mt in the four seasons before. They turn out more meal than demand calls for. Conviction is low because sales keep the pace the programme needs, 0.32 Mt a week over the last three weeks against 0.30 Mt a week required to reach the USDA programme of 20.59 Mt, and because USDA's projected US ending stocks, 0.41 Mt, are no larger than last season's.

CBOT soybean oil (neutral). US soybean oil stocks are low, at 0.478 Mt at the end of September, the lowest in recent years, against 0.484 to 0.764 Mt at the same point in the five previous seasons. But the biofuel demand that was tightening them slowed in August more than the season explains: plants used 0.63 Mt, down 0.14 Mt from the 0.77 Mt of July, when the change from July to August ranged from a 0.04 Mt drop to a 0.03 Mt rise in the four previous seasons. August use still exceeds the 0.42 to 0.55 Mt of those Augusts, and the renewable diesel margin stays wide, at $763.75/t on 30 October against $82.70/t a year earlier. Yet the curve does not pay for oil on hand, with July 1.18 c/lb over December against 0.66 c/lb on 21 October, and diesel is falling, with New York Harbor ULSD futures at $4.42 a gallon on 2 November against $4.98 on 23 October. Low stocks and a slowing flow offset each other: neither tension nor surplus is established.

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Rapeseed and canola

Euronext rapeseed (bearish bias). The seed is there and nobody is calling for it. The market pays to store: May trades €3/t over February, when the norm at this date is a €1.38/t discount. French collectors held 2.17 Mt at the end of September, the largest in recent years for a second month running, against 1.67 to 2.02 Mt in the five previous seasons. EU crushers processed only 4.52 Mt from July to September, against 4.56 to 4.83 Mt, and lean on soybeans, which trade $163.96/t under rapeseed against a median of $95.26/t, while EU seed imports reached only 1.19 Mt by week 44, against 1.23 to 2.37 Mt. Conviction is low because the surplus is modest: Rouen cash is at €6/t under February, close to its long-run median of €5.50/t under, and the French crush margin stays high, at €226/t against €167.18/t a year earlier.

ICE canola (bullish bias). Canada is crushing and exporting much faster than last year from a crop of the same size. August-September crush runs 31% above last season and exports reached 1.89 Mt by week 43, 54% ahead of the 1.23 Mt of last season, on opening stocks plus crop of 23.94 Mt against 23.83 Mt. At that rate, ending stocks could fall below the 1.33 Mt of 2021/22, the lowest of recent seasons. Saskatchewan farm cash has just firmed, to CAD 63.31/t under ICE January from CAD 76.37/t under on 27 October, and the ICE carry narrows, with March CAD 9.80/t over January against CAD 12.30/t on 26 October. Conviction is low because the market does not yet pay a premium for canola on hand, the carry staying above a median of CAD 6.90/t for the date, and because canola is already dear against soybeans, which trade $116.47/t under it against a median of $47.31/t, and that will end up slowing demand.

What changed today

• CBOT soybean oil moves from bullish bias to neutral: US biofuel use of soybean oil fell to 0.63 Mt in August from 0.77 Mt in July, so the flow that was tightening low stocks has slowed, and the curve does not pay for oil on hand.

To watch: weekly US export sales of soybeans, corn and soybean meal, Chinese soybean stocks, US biofuel use of soybean oil and US soybean oil stocks, renewable diesel margins and diesel futures, the CBOT soybean oil, soybean meal and corn curves, US ethanol stocks, EU corn imports, C&F corn prices in Europe and Egypt by origin, the Euronext corn, wheat and rapeseed calendar spreads, Rouen wheat and Bordeaux corn cash, EU wheat exports and French port loadings, Argentine and French wheat prices in North Africa, US Gulf cash premiums, EU rapeseed crush, Canadian October crush and weekly canola exports, the ICE canola calendar spread and Saskatchewan cash, and the November USDA balances.