Desk View — 2 November 2026: Euronext pays for corn on hand after France's crop halves, while US soybeans sell fast and US corn lags

Euronext pays more for corn on hand than for corn later in the season: June trades €2.75/t under March, after a French crop about half the size of last season's. In the US, buyers are emptying the soybean export book while corn sales run short of the programme. We are bullish on CBOT soybeans, Euronext milling wheat, Euronext corn, CBOT soybean oil and ICE canola, bearish on CBOT corn, CBOT soybean meal and Euronext rapeseed, and neutral on CBOT SRW wheat and KC HRW wheat.

Wheat

Euronext milling wheat (bullish bias). The market will not pay to store wheat into spring, and no series shows a European surplus. Euronext March trades level with December, against a median of €3.25/t over at this date in recent seasons. Rouen cash stood €1/t under December on 26 October, firmer than the €1.75/t to €5.50/t under of the same date in the five previous years, and Constanta wheat trades $46/t over CBOT SRW against a long-run median of $21.53/t. This is not a shortage: French collectors held 12.26 Mt at the end of August, inside the 9.46 to 13.32 Mt of the five previous seasons, and French exports reached 2.25 Mt by week 45 against 2.70 Mt last season. The tension comes from a balance with nothing to spare, and the corn deficit adds to it because feed buyers turn to wheat, €30.75/t cheaper than corn on the nearby Euronext contracts. Conviction is low: Argentine wheat lands in Algeria and Morocco only $1.50/t above French wheat, and Russia holds ending stocks of 19.09 Mt, against 11.99 Mt last season, that have yet to ship.

CBOT SRW wheat (neutral). US Gulf soft red wheat cash looks firm, at $39.25/t over December on 30 October against $39.12/t a year earlier. But every Gulf premium is firm: corn cash trades $39.48/t over CBOT against a long-run median of $30.01/t, and soybean cash $37.74/t against $27.82/t. Export logistics are tight, not soft red wheat. What is specific to SRW does not lean either way. March trades 13.50 c/bu over December against a median of 17 c/bu for the date, and US SRW sells $6.50/t over French wheat FOB. The US crop is smaller, at 41.74 Mt against 54.14 Mt last season, and sales are catching up, with 0.85 Mt in week 44 against 0.27 to 0.53 Mt in the same week of the five previous seasons, yet they still cover only 56.4% of the 20.41 Mt programme, against 57.1% to 66.0% in those seasons.

KC HRW wheat (neutral). No export outlet pulls on hard red winter. HRW sells $35.25/t over SRW FOB at the US Gulf, inside its range of $33 to $46.75/t since 6 October, and the gap between that physical premium and the premium on the futures board, $20.28/t, sits inside its $18.49 to $27.64/t range: nothing in US prices shows buyers bidding hard red winter up against soft red. Abroad, US wheat lands in Egypt $50.75/t above French wheat, so importers have no reason to turn to it.

Corn

CBOT corn (bearish bias). US supply is not finding its export programme. Sales cover 28.0% of the USDA programme of 83.82 Mt, when none of the five previous seasons stood below 32.8% of its final sales at this week. Even at the pace of the best of those seasons, sales end 12.2 Mt short. The curve pays to store: March trades 13.25 c/bu over December, above the upper quarter for the date (12.88 c/bu) and a median of 9.75 c/bu. US corn is cheaper than Argentine and Brazilian corn, at $243.75/t C&F in Europe against $248.75/t and $249.75/t, and at $259.75/t in Egypt against $261.75/t and $271.25/t, and it does sell: 1.31 Mt in week 44, against 0.26 to 2.34 Mt in the same week of the five previous seasons. Conviction is low because a late harvest, 60% done against 71% to 81% at that week in four previous seasons, explains a part of the gap that cannot be measured, and because the published balance does not yet show the surplus, with US ending stocks at 46.97 Mt against 53.22 Mt last season.

Euronext corn (bullish bias). Europe pays for corn now because its crop is short. June trades €2.75/t under March, below anything seen at this date in recent seasons and against a median of €3/t over, and Constanta corn trades $90.73/t over CBOT against a long-run median of $37.47/t. France harvests 6.63 Mt against 12.99 Mt last season, and both balance sheets fall: USDA puts EU ending stocks at 5.05 Mt, the lowest since 2007/08 (4.73 Mt), and the European Commission at 13.49 Mt against 20.30 Mt last season on its own accounting. Imports keep to the programme without running ahead of it, with 1.92 Mt by week 44 against 1.82 Mt needed by now for the USDA import figure of 23.5 Mt, so the tension is not resolved. It does have an exit, which is why conviction is low: US corn lands in Europe $45.03/t under Euronext March converted to dollars, and whether the ships come is still open.

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Soybeans

CBOT soybeans (bullish). Demand is emptying the US export book. Sales cover 62.4% of the USDA programme of 46.13 Mt, against 38.7% to 58.4% at the same week in the five previous seasons, and leave 17.35 Mt to sell, against 22.39 to 28.43 Mt. China keeps absorbing: it imported 111.69 Mt in the season to September, the largest in recent years, against 110.53 Mt the season before, and its crushers processed 86.50 Mt in the first 43 weeks of 2026, against 84.65 Mt in 2025. US beans now land in China $10/t over Brazilian, against $20.75/t on 3 August and $14.75/t on 21 October. March at 9.50 c/bu over January, against a median of 10.75 c/bu for the date, is an ordinary carry and does not contradict this demand.

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CBOT soybean meal (bearish bias). US plants crush for oil and have to place the meal that comes with it: USDA puts output at 59.69 Mt, against 57.07 Mt last season. At a 78% meal yield, the meal from a tonne of soybeans, priced on CBOT December, covers 61.5% of that tonne priced on CBOT January, against 65.4% on 19 October. The curve has moved from inversion to carry in three weeks, with May $6.20 per short ton over December against $7 under on 12 October. Sales cover 29.4% of the USDA programme of 20.59 Mt, against 30.1% to 38.5% at the same week in the five previous seasons, and the sales patterns of those seasons point to 15.1 to 19.7 Mt, so the programme looks too high. Conviction is low because physical meal holds up better than the board: US Gulf meal trades $72.44/t over CBOT December against an October average of $62.02/t, and the 6.06 Mt sold is second only to the 6.33 Mt of last season.

CBOT soybean oil (bullish bias). The biofuel mandate holds US soybean oil tight. Stocks ended September at 0.478 Mt, level with the floor of recent years, against 0.484 to 0.764 Mt at the same point in the five previous seasons. Biofuel use reached 0.77 Mt in July, against 0.44 to 0.58 Mt in July of the four previous seasons and above what the balance sheet assumes. The renewable diesel margin stays wide, at $763.75/t on 30 October against $823.99/t a week earlier and $82.70/t a year earlier. Conviction is low because nobody is yet bidding for oil on hand: the curve opens in carry, with July 1.21 c/lb over December against 0.66 c/lb on 21 October.

Rapeseed and canola

Euronext rapeseed (bearish bias). The seed is there and crushers are not calling for it. The market pays to store: May trades €1.75/t over February, when the norm at this date is a €1.50/t discount. French collectors held 2.28 Mt at the end of August, the largest in recent years, against 1.65 to 2.08 Mt in the five previous seasons. EU seed imports reached only 1.19 Mt by week 44, against 1.23 to 2.37 Mt, and EU crushers processed 4.52 Mt from July to September, against 4.56 to 4.83 Mt. Conviction is low because the surplus is modest and a high crush margin can still keep plants running.

ICE canola (bullish bias). The Canadian balance is tightening on volumes already recorded. Crushers processed 1.23 Mt in September, against 0.78 to 1.01 Mt in September of the five previous seasons, with August-September crush 31% above last season. Exports reached 1.89 Mt by week 43, 54% ahead of the 1.23 Mt of last season, on opening stocks plus crop of 23.94 Mt against 23.83 Mt. At that rate ending stocks could fall below the 1.33 Mt of 2021/22, the low of recent seasons. Weak Saskatchewan cash, once read as a surplus, is mostly a multi-year drift: CAD 76.37/t under ICE now, after CAD 65.46/t, CAD 52.85/t and CAD 43.41/t at the same date in the three previous years. The ICE carry does not argue otherwise: March trades CAD 10.30/t over January, against CAD 11.30/t at the same date last year, before a season that ended tight. Conviction is low because the market pays no urgency for canola on hand yet, with that carry above a median of CAD 6.90/t for the date and farm cash not firming, and because canola is already dear against soybeans, which trade $110.40/t under it against a median of $47.14/t.

What changed today

• Euronext corn moves from neutral to bullish bias: the June-March spread has stayed below anything seen at this date in recent seasons since the contract roll, the European Commission's balance sheet now confirms USDA's, and imports do not run ahead.
• ICE canola moves from bearish bias to bullish bias: the weak Saskatchewan cash measures a yearly drift, crush and exports exceed what a surplus would allow, and a carry of this size has already preceded a tight season.

To watch: weekly US export sales of corn, soybeans, wheat and soybean meal, EU corn imports, C&F corn prices in Europe and Egypt by origin, the Euronext corn and wheat calendar spreads, Rouen wheat cash, Argentine and French wheat prices in North Africa, Russian wheat shipments, soybean prices delivered to China by origin, US Gulf cash premiums, the CBOT corn and soybean meal curves, US soybean oil stocks and biofuel use, renewable diesel margins, the Euronext rapeseed calendar spread and EU rapeseed crush, Canadian October crush, the ICE canola calendar spread and Saskatchewan cash, and the November USDA balances.