The Commission cut Europe's corn crop again, and raised its feed use

The European Commission took another 1.3 Mt off the 2026/27 EU corn crop on Friday, to 47 Mt, about 6 Mt below the 2022 drought, and raised feed use by 0.1 Mt in the same report. With imports left at 25 Mt, the cut lands on stocks, which fall from 15.08 to 13.5 Mt, about nine weeks of use against nearly fourteen last season. That balance needs European buyers to barely react, and the prices they face push the other way.

A bigger shock, and no adjustment

Feed use now stands at 58.74 Mt, above the 58 Mt the EU ended up using in 2022/23, when it had 6 Mt more corn. Adding wheat and barley widens the contrast: the three-grain crop falls 27.3 Mt on the year and combined use rises 0.2 Mt. In 2022/23 the crop fell 23.3 Mt and use fell 4.6 Mt, with corn down 7.1 Mt and wheat up 3 Mt.

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Prices push the other way

Euronext corn for March settled 30.75 €/t above wheat for March on 30 October, whereas wheat averaged 8.6 €/t above corn in autumn 2022. Everything is pushing feed buyers away from European corn, toward wheat in the ration and toward imports for the corn they still need. March Euronext is worth about 289 $/t, against 244 $/t for US corn C&F Spain, down 30 $ in a month, and 249 to 250 $/t for Argentina and Brazil. Romanian corn sits 62 $/t above the US, and with Ukraine's harvest at 29% against a usual 56% and its sea routes disrupted by the war, the extra tonnes would have to cross the ocean.

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Our reading: the 13.5 Mt is the number in question

The Commission wrote a similar balance in October 2022, with feed use at 60.5 Mt, imports at 22 Mt and stocks at 16.62 Mt. That campaign ended with feed at 58 Mt, imports at 25.92 Mt and stocks well above what was written then, on a smaller crop. Our reading is that this year's use figure is demanding, and that stocks could end above 13.5 Mt even if the crop slips again. Three signals will show how this moves:

• EU imports against 25 Mt. The 1.92 Mt at week 44 is 7.7% of the programme, in line with past seasons. Pulling ahead would show imports replacing the missing crop.
• Wheat against corn. As long as wheat stays this far below corn, a 58.74 Mt feed line is hard to hold. A narrower discount would take away the main reason to swap.
• The Commission's feed line. A first cut below 58.74 Mt would start the correction seen in 2022/23. Further increases would mean the stock has to absorb the next crop cut too.