Desk View — 30 October 2026: Buyers empty the US soybean book, while US corn and French rapeseed wait for takers

Buyers are emptying the US soybean export book: two weeks of sales larger than anything booked in the same weeks of the five previous seasons leave less still to sell than in any recent year. US corn and French rapeseed tell the opposite story, with supply on hand that finds no buyer and a futures curve that pays to store it. We are bullish on CBOT soybeans, Euronext milling wheat and CBOT soybean oil, bearish on CBOT corn, CBOT soybean meal, Euronext rapeseed and ICE canola, and neutral on CBOT SRW wheat, KC HRW wheat and Euronext corn.

Wheat

Euronext milling wheat (bullish bias). Europe has no wheat to spare into spring, and the market will not pay to store it. Euronext March trades €1/t under December, against a median of €3.25/t over at this date in recent seasons, and Rouen cash stood €1/t under December on 26 October, against a long-run median of €3.75/t under. Exports hold the pace of the 31.0 Mt programme on which USDA builds the EU balance sheet: the EU had shipped 9.21 Mt by week 44, against 8.94 Mt needed by now on the median shipping pattern of the five previous seasons. Conviction is low because the tension is modest, with March far from the deepest inversions seen at this date in recent seasons (€6.75/t under), and because two supplies can fill the gap: old-crop Argentine wheat now lands in Algeria and Morocco only $2.75/t above French wheat, and Russia holds ending stocks of 19.09 Mt, against 11.99 Mt last season, that have yet to show up in its shipments.

CBOT SRW wheat (neutral). US Gulf soft red wheat cash looks firm, at $42.41/t over nearby CBOT futures on 29 October, against $35.68/t a year earlier and a median of $31.95/t since March 2022. But the whole US Gulf is firm this autumn: Gulf corn cash trades $39.60/t over CBOT against a long-run median of $30, and Gulf soybean cash $35.55/t against $27.81. The firmness points to tight export logistics, not to a shortage of soft red wheat. What is specific to SRW shows no tension: March trades 13.50 c/bu over December, against a median of 17 c/bu for the date, and US SRW sells $10/t over French wheat FOB. On the other side, the US wheat crop is 12.4 Mt smaller than last season, at 41.74 Mt, and export sales are catching up, with 0.85 Mt sold in week 44 against 0.27 to 0.53 Mt in the same week of the five previous seasons. The balance shows neither a surplus nor a shortage.

KC HRW wheat (neutral). Hard red winter has no outlet of its own pulling on it. HRW sells $34.75/t over SRW FOB at the US Gulf, down from $46.75/t on 7 October, and the gap between that physical premium and the premium on the futures board has narrowed to $19.50/t from $27.64/t. Abroad, US wheat lands in Egypt $53.75/t above French wheat, so no export buyer is bidding for it.

Corn

CBOT corn (bearish bias). US corn is waiting for buyers. Export sales cover 28.0% of the USDA programme of 83.82 Mt, against 31.9% to 47.4% at the same week in the five previous seasons, and the market pays to store a crop that is only 60% harvested (71% to 81% at that week in four previous seasons): March trades 13.50 c/bu over December, in the upper quarter of the range for the date (12.94 c/bu) and against a median of 9.75 c/bu. Price is not what holds buyers back. For five sessions US corn has landed cheaper than Argentine and Brazilian corn in Europe and Egypt, at $245.25/t C&F in Europe against $249.75/t and $250.75/t, and at $261.25/t in Egypt against $262.75/t and $272.25/t. Yet it sells only at an ordinary pace, 1.31 Mt in week 44, under the 1.34 Mt a week needed to reach the USDA programme: a crop that has to cheapen further to move. Conviction is low because that price advantage can still turn into sales.

Euronext corn (neutral). Europe is short of corn, but the shortage is already in the balance sheet. USDA puts EU ending stocks at 5.05 Mt, the lowest since 2007/08 (4.73 Mt). The curve and the cash market show it: June trades €3/t under March, below anything seen at this date in recent seasons and against a median of €3/t over, and Bordeaux cash traded €3.25/t over March on 26 October, against a long-run median of €7/t under. Yet imports arrive on schedule: 1.92 Mt by week 44, against 1.82 Mt needed by now for the USDA import programme of 23.5 Mt on the median pattern of the five previous seasons. The door stays open, with US corn landing in Europe $44.74/t under Euronext March converted to dollars, and feed buyers turn to wheat, €32.25/t cheaper than corn on the nearby Euronext contracts.

Soybeans

CBOT soybeans (bullish). Demand is emptying the US export book. Buyers took 2.84 Mt of US soybeans in week 43 and 2.58 Mt in week 44, against at most 2.75 Mt and 2.07 Mt in the same weeks of the five previous seasons. Sales now cover 62.4% of the USDA programme of 46.13 Mt, against 38.7% to 58.4% at the same week in those seasons, and leave 17.35 Mt to sell, against 22.39 to 28.43 Mt. The largest buyer keeps absorbing: China imported 111.69 Mt of soybeans in the season to September, the largest in recent years, against 110.53 Mt the season before, and its crushers processed 86.50 Mt in the first 43 weeks of 2026, against 84.65 Mt in 2025. US beans are also closing the gap on Brazil in China, landing $10/t over Brazilian against $14.75/t on 21 October. The curve, with March 8.75 c/bu over January against a median of 10.75 c/bu for the date, is an ordinary carry and does not contradict demand of this size.

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CBOT soybean meal (bearish bias). US plants crush for oil, and meal is the by-product of a larger crush: USDA puts US meal output at 59.69 Mt, against 57.07 Mt last season. Meal pays for less and less of the bean: at a 78% meal yield, the meal from a tonne of soybeans, priced on CBOT December meal, covers 62.4% of the cost of that tonne priced on CBOT January soybeans, against 65.4% on 19 October. The curve has gone from a premium for nearby meal to a carry, with May $5.10 per short ton over December against $7 under on 12 October, and export sales cover 29.4% of the USDA programme of 20.59 Mt, against 30.1% to 38.5% at the same week in the five previous seasons. Conviction is low because US Gulf meal holds firm, at $69.51/t over CBOT meal on 29 October against an October average of $61.47/t, and because week 44 sales, at 0.35 Mt, beat the 0.32 Mt a week needed to reach the USDA programme.

CBOT soybean oil (bullish bias). Biofuel plants draw on a thin US soybean oil supply. US stocks ended September at 0.478 Mt, the lowest in recent years, against 0.564 Mt a year earlier, and biofuel use reached 0.77 Mt in July, against 0.44 to 0.58 Mt in July of the four previous seasons. The renewable diesel margin fell with diesel, to $731.56/t on 30 October from $823.99/t a week earlier as New York Harbor ULSD dropped to $4.59 a gallon from $4.98, but it stays within the $670.39 to $921.71/t range it has held every week since 7 August. Conviction is low because the market does not yet pay for oil on hand: July trades 0.98 c/lb over December, against 0.66 c/lb on 21 October, and the D4 RIN credit fell to $1.83 on 30 October from $2.10 on 9 October.

Rapeseed and canola

Euronext rapeseed (bearish bias). The seed is in Europe and crushers are not calling for it. French collectors held 2.28 Mt of rapeseed at the end of August, the largest in recent years, against 1.65 to 2.08 Mt in the five previous seasons. EU seed imports reached only 1.19 Mt by week 44, against 1.23 to 2.37 Mt at the same week in those seasons, and EU crushers processed 4.52 Mt from July to September, against 4.56 to 4.83 Mt in the same months. The curve pays to hold the surplus: May trades €1.25/t over February, when the norm at this date is a €1.50/t discount. Rouen cash, at €1.25/t under February on 26 October against a long-run median of €5.50/t under, looks firm, but the quote has moved with the futures contract it is priced against and says little about local demand. Conviction is low because the surplus is modest.

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ICE canola (bearish bias). Canadian farmers have more canola to sell than buyers take. Saskatchewan cash averaged CAD 68.30/t under nearby ICE futures in October, the weakest October in years, against CAD 59.50/t under in October 2025, and stood CAD 76.37/t under January in the latest quote. The market pays to store: ICE March trades CAD 11.80/t over January, against a median of CAD 6.90/t for the date and close to the widest of recent seasons at this date, CAD 12.80/t. Conviction is low because demand is strong and could absorb the crop faster than the official balance assumes: crushers processed 1.23 Mt in September, against 0.78 to 1.01 Mt in September of the five previous seasons, and August-September crush runs 31% above last season.

What changed today

• CBOT soybeans move from bullish bias to bullish: US soybean export sales topped every recent season in the same weeks for two weeks running, at 2.84 Mt and 2.58 Mt.
• CBOT corn moves from neutral to bearish bias: firm US Gulf corn cash no longer counts as demand for corn, since every Gulf premium is firm this autumn; what remains is the slowest export book in recent seasons and a curve that pays to store.
• Euronext rapeseed moves from neutral to bearish bias: the May-February spread pays to store where the season usually brings a discount, alongside large French collector stocks and weak EU imports and crush.

To watch: weekly US export sales of soybeans, corn, wheat and soybean meal, soybean prices delivered to China by origin, C&F corn prices in Europe and Egypt by origin, US Gulf cash premiums for wheat, corn, soybeans and meal, the CBOT corn, SRW wheat and soybean meal curves, EU wheat exports and Russian wheat shipments, Rouen wheat cash and the Euronext wheat calendar spread, EU corn imports and Bordeaux corn cash, US soybean oil stocks and biofuel use, renewable diesel margins and RIN credits, the Euronext rapeseed calendar spread and EU rapeseed crush, Saskatchewan canola cash, the ICE canola calendar spread and Canadian crush, and the November USDA balances.