Desk View — 29 October 2026: France and the US Gulf pay up for wheat on hand, even as US wheat export sales lag
Rouen wheat cash trades close to Euronext futures with March under December, and US Gulf soft red wheat cash holds its firmest premium for the date since 2022 despite slow US export sales. We are bullish on Euronext milling wheat, CBOT soybeans and CBOT soybean oil, bearish on CBOT soybean meal and ICE canola, and neutral on CBOT SRW wheat, HRW wheat, CBOT corn, Euronext corn and Euronext rapeseed.
Conviction board
| Product | Contract | View | In one line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milling Wheat | Euronext | Bullish bias | EU stocks cut at every report, firm Rouen cash, March under December, and exports on track for the USDA programme. A modest inversion and large Russian stocks hold conviction down. |
| SRW Wheat | CBOT | Neutral | US export sales trail every recent season, but they mix all wheat classes, while Gulf SRW cash stays firm and the calendar spread pays less than usual to store: no visible soft red wheat surplus. |
| HRW Wheat | CBOT | Neutral | The HRW premium over SRW and its gap to the futures board sit inside their three-week range: nothing sets HRW apart from the US wheat balance. |
| Corn | CBOT | Neutral | US corn lands below Argentine and Brazilian corn in Europe and Egypt and Gulf cash is firm, against the slowest export sales in recent seasons and a curve that pays to store. |
| Corn | Euronext | Neutral | Lowest EU stocks since 2007/08, June under March and firm Bordeaux cash, against imports arriving at the pace the balance sheet needs, a wide-open import parity and cheaper feed wheat. |
| Soybeans | CBOT | Bullish bias | US sales ahead of recent seasons with less left to sell, the largest Chinese imports and crush in recent years, and a narrowing US premium over Brazil in China. Unsettled Gulf cash and a normal carry hold conviction down. |
| Soybean Meal | CBOT | Bearish bias | Crushers run for oil: large meal output, a curve gone from inversion to carry, meal paying for less of the bean and slow export sales. A firm Gulf premium holds conviction down. |
| Soybean Oil | CBOT | Bullish bias | Low US stocks, strong biofuel use and a high renewable diesel margin. A widening carry on the curve and a falling RIN credit show the market has not yet paid for the tension. |
| Rapeseed | Euronext | Neutral | EU stocks drawn down without strain and firm Rouen cash, against large French collector stocks and slow EU crush and imports. No physical measure points to a surplus or a shortage. |
| Canola | ICE | Bearish bias | Saskatchewan cash at its weakest for October in years and a wide carry while crush and exports run strong: supply on offer exceeds demand. A carry easing from its peak holds conviction down. |
Buyers pay for wheat on hand on both sides of the Atlantic. In France, Rouen cash trades close to Euronext futures and the market no longer pays to store wheat into March; at the US Gulf, soft red wheat cash holds a premium over CBOT that is the firmest for the date since 2022, even though US export sales trail every recent season. We are bullish on Euronext milling wheat, CBOT soybeans and CBOT soybean oil, bearish on CBOT soybean meal and ICE canola, and neutral on CBOT SRW wheat, KC HRW wheat, CBOT corn, Euronext corn and Euronext rapeseed.
Wheat
Euronext milling wheat (bullish bias). Europe does not have enough wheat to carry comfortably into spring. USDA has cut EU ending stocks at every report since July, to 11.72 Mt from 14.63 Mt in the May and June reports, against 18.97 Mt last season. The physical market agrees: Rouen wheat traded €1/t under Euronext December on 26 October, against a long-run median of €3.75/t under, and the market no longer pays to store, with March €1.25/t under December on 28 October, against a median of €3.25/t over for the date and €5/t over on 28 September. Exports are on track for the USDA programme of 31.0 Mt on which that tight stock rests: the EU had shipped 9.21 Mt by week 44, against 8.94 Mt needed by now on the median shipping pattern of the five previous seasons. Conviction is low because the tension is modest, with March still far from the deepest inversions seen at this date in recent seasons (€6.75/t under), and because Russia, with ending stocks of 19.09 Mt against 11.99 Mt last season, can fill the gap if its wheat starts to move.
CBOT SRW wheat (neutral). The US export book is slow, but nothing in it points to soft red wheat. Export sales cover 52.3% of the USDA programme of 20.41 Mt, against 54.5% to 63.9% at the same week in the five previous seasons, and imports run high, at 0.708 Mt from June to August, 31% above the five-season average of 0.54 Mt. Those sales, however, mix every wheat class. The two measures specific to soft red wheat show no supply looking for a buyer. US Gulf SRW cash trades $40.40/t over nearby CBOT futures, against a median of $31.92/t since March 2022; that is about level with $40.37/t a year ago and the firmest for the date since 2022, when it stood at $63.55/t. And the market pays less than usual to store: March trades 14.25 c/bu over December, against a median of 17.25 c/bu for the date. The USDA export programme may well be too high, but soft red wheat carries no visible surplus.
KC HRW wheat (neutral). Hard red winter follows the US wheat balance without a story of its own. HRW sells $36.75/t over SRW FOB at the US Gulf, against a median of $42.25/t over the past five years, and the gap between that physical premium and the premium on the futures board is $20.58/t, against a median of $26.38/t. Both sit inside the range they have held for three weeks: $35 to $46.75/t for the physical premium, $20.06 to $27.64/t for the gap.
Corn
CBOT corn (neutral). Two forces offset each other. On one side, US corn has become cheaper than South American corn: it has landed below Argentine and Brazilian corn in Europe and Egypt for four sessions in a row (24 to 28 October), at $245/t in Europe against $250/t for Argentine and $250.50/t for Brazilian corn, and at $261/t in Egypt against $263/t and $272/t, all on a C&F basis. US Gulf cash holds firm, at $39.16/t over CBOT against a median of $30/t. On the other side, export sales cover 26.5% of the USDA programme, against 30.6% to 46.0% at the same week in the five previous seasons, and the market pays to store a crop that is still coming in: March trades 13.25 c/bu over December, against a median of 9.62 c/bu for the date, with the harvest 60% done in the latest week against 71% to 81% at that week in four previous seasons. Export sales over the next two weeks will show whether the competitive price catches up with the slow book.
Euronext corn (neutral). Europe is short of corn, but imports are covering the gap on schedule. USDA puts EU ending stocks at 5.05 Mt, the lowest since 2007/08 (4.73 Mt). The physical market shows the shortage: Euronext June trades €2.25/t under March, below the lowest of recent seasons at this date (€1/t under) and against a median of €3/t over, and Bordeaux cash trades €3.25/t over March, against a long-run median of €7/t under. Yet imports arrive at, or slightly above, the pace the balance sheet needs: 1.92 Mt by week 44, against 1.82 Mt needed by now for the USDA import programme of 23.5 Mt (20 Mt last season) on the median import pattern of the five previous seasons. The door stays wide open, with US corn landing in Europe $44.30/t under Euronext March converted to dollars, and feed demand turns to wheat, as Euronext March wheat costs €33.75/t less than March corn. The tension is real, but it is already in the balance sheet, and the supply that covers it arrives on time.
Soybeans
CBOT soybeans (bullish bias). The buyer is there and the US crop is largely sold. Export sales cover 56.8% of the USDA programme of 46.13 Mt, against 35.2% to 56.5% at the same week in the five previous seasons, which leaves 19.93 Mt to sell, against 23.42 to 29.50 Mt at the same week in those seasons. China imported 111.69 Mt of soybeans in the season to September, the largest in recent years, against 110.53 Mt the season before, and its crushers processed 86.50 Mt in the first 43 weeks of 2026, against 84.65 Mt in 2025. US soybeans now land in China $10.75/t over Brazilian, against $14.75/t on 21 October. Conviction is low because US Gulf cash swings around its upper quartile of $39.65/t without settling above it, at $36.61/t over CBOT January after $44.77/t the session before, and because the curve does not pay for beans on hand, with March 8 c/bu over January against a median of 10.75 c/bu for the date.
CBOT soybean meal (bearish bias). US plants crush for oil, and meal is the by-product that has to find a home. USDA puts US meal output at 59.69 Mt, against 57.07 Mt last season. In two weeks the curve has gone from a premium for nearby meal to a carry: May trades $1.40 per short ton over December, against $7 under on 12 October. Meal pays for less of the bean: at a 78% meal yield, the meal from a tonne of soybeans, priced on CBOT December meal, covers 63.5% of the cost of that tonne priced on CBOT January soybeans, down from 65.4% on 19 October. Export sales cover 27.7% of a USDA programme of 20.59 Mt, against 29.2% to 37.9% at the same week in the five previous seasons. Conviction is low because the physical premium holds firm for the season: US Gulf meal trades $67.20/t over CBOT December meal and has averaged $61.03/t over it this month, within the range of recent Octobers ($25.13 to $114.13/t in October of the four previous years), and because the carry narrowed on the latest session, from $2.90 per short ton on 27 October.
CBOT soybean oil (bullish bias). Biofuel plants draw hard on a thin US soybean oil supply. Stocks ended September at 0.478 Mt, the lowest in recent years, against 0.564 Mt a year earlier and 0.484 Mt in September 2024, because biofuel use reached 0.77 Mt in July, against 0.44 to 0.58 Mt in July of the four previous seasons. Renewable diesel plants still earn a high margin, $823.99/t on 23 October, within the $670.39 to $921.71/t range it has held every week since 7 August. Conviction is low because the market has not yet paid for that tension: the curve does not reward oil on hand, with July 1.06 c/lb over December against 0.66 c/lb on 21 October, and the D4 RIN credit fell to $1.84 on 23 October from $2.10 on 9 October.
Rapeseed and canola
Euronext rapeseed (neutral). The EU draws its rapeseed stocks down without strain. USDA sees EU ending stocks falling to 2.12 Mt from 2.52 Mt last season, a stocks-to-use ratio of 0.08 against 0.09. Rouen cash holds at €1.25/t under Euronext February, against a long-run median of €5.50/t under, and the curve still pays a little to store: May trades €1/t over February, down from €1.50/t on 27 October but above a median of €1.50/t under for the date. On the other side, French collectors held 2.28 Mt at the end of August, the largest in recent years, against 1.65 to 2.08 Mt in previous seasons, while EU crushers processed 4.52 Mt from July to September, against 4.56 to 4.83 Mt in the same months of the five previous seasons, and EU seed imports reached 1.19 Mt by week 44, 70% of the five-season average. No physical measure points to a surplus or to a shortage.
ICE canola (bearish bias). Canadian farmers have more canola to sell than a record demand absorbs. Saskatchewan cash averaged CAD 66.96/t under nearby ICE futures in October so far, the weakest October in years, against CAD 59.50/t under in October 2025, and stood CAD 76.13/t under January on 26 October. The market pays to store: ICE March trades CAD 11.50/t over January, against a median of CAD 6.90/t for the date and close to the widest of recent seasons at this date, CAD 12.80/t. Demand is not the problem: crushers processed 1.24 Mt in August, against 0.63 to 0.87 Mt in August of the five previous seasons, and exports reached 1.62 Mt by week 42, 115% of the five-season average. When cash stays this weak with crush and exports this strong, the supply on offer is larger than the demand. Conviction is low because the carry has eased from CAD 12.30/t on 26 October, which may be the first sign that the surplus is starting to clear.
What changed today
- CBOT SRW wheat moves from bearish to neutral: the slow US export book covers every wheat class without pointing to soft red wheat, while US Gulf SRW cash and the SRW calendar spread show no soft red wheat looking for a buyer.
To watch: weekly US export sales of wheat, corn, soybeans and soybean meal, US Gulf SRW cash and the CBOT SRW calendar spread, EU wheat exports and Russian wheat shipments, Rouen wheat and rapeseed cash, Bordeaux corn cash, the Euronext wheat, corn and rapeseed calendar spreads, EU corn and rapeseed imports, C&F corn prices in Europe and Egypt by origin, US Gulf corn and soybean cash, soybean prices delivered to China by origin, the CBOT soybean meal curve and Gulf meal premiums, US soybean oil stocks and biofuel use, renewable diesel margins and RIN credits, EU rapeseed crush, Canadian September crush, Saskatchewan canola cash and the ICE canola calendar spread, and the November USDA balances.
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