Desk View — 28 October 2026: US corn lands below Argentine corn in Europe and Egypt, Saskatchewan farmers sell canola at a deep discount
US corn now undercuts Argentine corn delivered to Europe and Egypt, while Saskatchewan canola cash sits at its weakest for October in years despite strong Canadian crush and exports. We are bullish on Euronext milling wheat, CBOT soybeans and CBOT soybean oil, bearish on CBOT SRW wheat, CBOT soybean meal and ICE canola, and neutral on HRW wheat, CBOT corn, Euronext corn and Euronext rapeseed.
Conviction board
| Product | Contract | View | In one line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milling Wheat | Euronext | Bullish bias | EU stocks cut at every report, firm Rouen cash, no carry, and French wheat lands below its rivals in North Africa and Egypt. EU exports pick up but the season total still trails the average. |
| SRW Wheat | CBOT | Bearish | US export sales cover a smaller share of the USDA programme than in any recent season, wheat is too dear to feed, imports run above average and US Gulf wheat sells further over French wheat. |
| HRW Wheat | CBOT | Neutral | The HRW premium over SRW and its gap to the futures board sit inside their three-week range, and spring wheat protein carries no premium: nothing sets HRW apart. |
| Corn | CBOT | Neutral | The slowest export sales in recent seasons and a curve that pays to store, against US corn now landing below Argentine corn in Europe and Egypt and firm Gulf cash. |
| Corn | Euronext | Neutral | Lowest EU stocks since 2007/08, June under March and firm Bordeaux cash, against imports arriving at the pace the balance sheet needs, a wide-open import parity and cheaper feed wheat. |
| Soybeans | CBOT | Bullish bias | US sales ahead of recent seasons with less left to sell, the largest Chinese imports and crush in recent years, and firm Gulf cash. A curve that does not pay for beans on hand and active Brazilian sellers hold conviction down. |
| Soybean Meal | CBOT | Bearish bias | Crushers run for oil: large meal output, a curve gone from inversion to carry in two weeks and export sales behind every recent season against a large programme. A firm Gulf premium holds conviction down. |
| Soybean Oil | CBOT | Bullish bias | Low US stocks, strong biofuel use and a high renewable diesel margin. An easing margin and RIN credit, a carry on the curve and a wide premium over Argentine oil hold conviction down. |
| Rapeseed | Euronext | Neutral | Rouen cash firm against February and EU stocks drawn down, against a carry that still pays to store and large French collector stocks. Neither side moves far from its norm. |
| Canola | ICE | Bearish bias | Saskatchewan cash at its weakest for October in years and a wide carry while crush and exports run strong: supply on offer exceeds demand. Cash firming against January holds conviction down. |
US corn now lands below Argentine corn in Europe and Egypt, a price cut that gives a slow US export book a way to catch up. In Canada, Saskatchewan farmers sell canola at a deeper discount to futures than in any recent October while crushers and exporters run at a fast pace. We are bullish on Euronext milling wheat, CBOT soybeans and CBOT soybean oil, bearish on CBOT SRW wheat, CBOT soybean meal and ICE canola, and neutral on KC HRW wheat, CBOT corn, Euronext corn and Euronext rapeseed.
Wheat
Euronext milling wheat (bullish bias). Europe has no wheat surplus to push out. USDA has cut EU ending stocks at every report since July, to 11.72 Mt from 14.63 Mt in the May and June reports, against 18.97 Mt last season. French cash agrees: Rouen wheat traded €1/t under futures on 26 October, against a long-run median of €3.75/t under, and the market no longer pays to store, with Euronext March €0.50/t under December against a median of €3.25/t over for the date. French wheat is priced to win business in North Africa and Egypt: delivered to Algeria it costs $285.25/t on a C&F basis, against $292.75/t for Argentine, $307.75/t for Romanian and $312.50/t for Russian wheat, and it also lands below Argentine and Russian wheat in Morocco and below Romanian, Russian and Argentine wheat in Egypt. EU exports have started to follow, with 0.61 Mt shipped in the latest week against an average of 0.58 Mt for that week. Conviction is low because the season total still lags: EU wheat exports reached 9.21 Mt by week 44, 89% of the five-season average of 10.31 Mt.
CBOT SRW wheat (bearish). The US has more soft wheat than its outlets can take. Export sales cover 52.3% of the USDA programme of 20.41 Mt, against 54.5% to 63.9% at the same week in the five previous seasons; applied to the share of final exports sold by this week in each of those seasons, current sales point to exports of 16.7 to 19.6 Mt, all under the programme. Feed offers no outlet, because CBOT wheat stands $47.57/t over CBOT corn against a long-run median of $36.43/t, and imports keep coming: 0.708 Mt from June to August, 31% above the five-season average of 0.54 Mt. US wheat is also priced out abroad, and the gap is widening: US Gulf SRW sells $13.75/t over French wheat FOB, against $9.75/t on 21 October.
KC HRW wheat (neutral). Hard red winter follows the US wheat balance without a story of its own. HRW sells $35/t over SRW FOB at the US Gulf, against a median of $42.25/t over the past five years, and the gap between that physical premium and the premium on the futures board is $20.21/t, against a median of $26.39/t; both sit inside the range they have held for three weeks. Protein carries no premium either: Minneapolis spring wheat trades only 18.25 c/bu over Chicago SRW, against a long-run median of 68 c/bu.
Corn
CBOT corn (neutral). Two forces offset each other. On one side, US corn is short of buyers: export sales cover 26.5% of the USDA programme, against 30.6% to 46.0% at the same week in the five previous seasons, and the market pays to store, with March 14 c/bu over December against a median of 9.75 c/bu for the date, even though the harvest was only 60% done in the latest week, against 71% to 81% at the same week in four previous seasons. On the other, the price is doing its job: US corn has landed below Argentine corn in Europe and Egypt for three sessions in a row (24, 26 and 27 October), at $245.50/t in Europe against $251.50/t for Argentine and $250.75/t for Brazilian corn, and at $261.50/t in Egypt against $264.50/t and $272.25/t, all on a C&F basis. US Gulf cash holds firm, at $40.84/t over CBOT, close to its upper quartile of $41.51/t and against a median of $30/t. The next weeks of export sales will show which side wins.
Euronext corn (neutral). Europe is short of corn, but imports are covering the gap as the balance sheet planned. USDA puts EU ending stocks at 5.05 Mt, the lowest since 2007/08 (4.73 Mt), after a French crop of 6.63 Mt against 12.99 Mt last season. The physical market shows the shortage: Euronext June trades €2.75/t under March, against a median of €3/t over at this date and below the lowest of recent seasons, €1/t under, and Bordeaux cash trades €3.25/t over March, against a long-run median of €7/t under. Yet imports arrive on time: 1.92 Mt by week 44, above the five-season average of 1.45 Mt for that week, for a USDA programme of 23.5 Mt against 20 Mt last season. The door stays open, with US corn landing in Europe $47.33/t under Euronext March converted to dollars, and feed demand turns away from corn, as December wheat costs €34.75/t less than March corn. The shortage is real, and imports are paying for it.
Soybeans
CBOT soybeans (bullish bias). The buyer is there and the US crop is largely sold. Export sales cover 56.8% of the USDA programme of 46.13 Mt, against 35.2% to 56.5% at the same week in the five previous seasons, which leaves 19.93 Mt to sell, against 23.42 to 29.50 Mt at the same week in those seasons. China imported 111.69 Mt of soybeans in the season to September, the largest in recent years, against 110.53 Mt the season before, and its crushers processed 86.50 Mt in the first 43 weeks of 2026, against 84.65 Mt in 2025. US Gulf soybean cash trades $44.77/t over CBOT January, above its upper quartile of $39.65/t, and US soybeans land in China only $12/t over Brazilian, against $14.75/t on 21 October. Conviction is low because the curve does not pay for beans on hand, with March 8.75 c/bu over January against a median of 10.62 c/bu for the date, and a weak Brazilian real keeps Brazilian sellers active.
CBOT soybean meal (bearish bias). US plants crush for oil, and meal is the by-product that has to find a home. USDA puts US meal output at 59.69 Mt, the largest in years, against 57.07 Mt last season. In two weeks the curve has gone from a premium for nearby meal to a carry: May trades $2.90 per short ton over December, against $7 under on 12 October. Meal is paying for less of the bean: at a 78% meal yield, the value of the meal from a tonne of soybeans, priced on CBOT December meal, covers 63.0% of the cost of that tonne priced on CBOT January soybeans, down from 65.4% on 19 October. Export sales cover 27.7% of a USDA programme of 20.59 Mt, the largest in years against 18.6 Mt last season, while the five previous seasons stood at 29.2% to 37.9% at the same week. Conviction is low because the physical premium holds firm, with US Gulf meal $69.92/t over CBOT December meal against a median of $44.03/t since March 2022, and because the carry appeared only on the latest sessions.
CBOT soybean oil (bullish bias). Biofuel plants draw hard on a thin US soybean oil supply. Stocks ended September at 0.478 Mt, the lowest in recent years, against 0.564 Mt a year earlier and 0.484 Mt in September 2024, because biofuel use reached 0.77 Mt in July, against 0.44 to 0.58 Mt in July of the four previous seasons. Renewable diesel plants still earn a high margin, $823.99/t on 23 October, within the $670.39 to $921.71/t range it has held every week since 7 August. Conviction is low because the market does not pay for oil on hand: the margin has eased from $851.12/t on 9 October, the D4 RIN credit fell to $1.84 from $2.10 over the same two weeks, March trades 0.53 c/lb over December, and CBOT December, converted to dollars per tonne, stands $247.20/t over Argentine soybean oil FOB.
Rapeseed and canola
Euronext rapeseed (neutral). The French physical market gives two opposite readings. Rouen rapeseed traded €1.25/t under Euronext February on 26 October, against a long-run median of €5.50/t under the nearby contract, and USDA sees EU ending stocks falling to 2.12 Mt from 2.52 Mt in 2025/26, while French crushers earn a margin near the top of its history. Against that, the market still pays to store: May trades €1.50/t over February, above an upper quartile of €0 for the date, and French collectors held 2.28 Mt at the end of August, the largest in recent years, against 1.65 to 2.08 Mt in previous seasons. Neither reading moves far from its norm, and neither settles the balance.
ICE canola (bearish bias). Canadian farmers have more canola to sell than a record demand can absorb. Saskatchewan cash averaged CAD 66.96/t under nearby ICE futures in October so far, the weakest October in years, against CAD 59.50/t under in October 2025, and the market pays to store: ICE March trades CAD 11.50/t over January, against a median of CAD 6.90/t for the date and close to the widest of recent seasons at this date, CAD 12.80/t. Demand is not the problem: crushers processed 1.24 Mt in August, against 0.63 to 0.87 Mt in August of the five previous seasons, and exports reached 1.62 Mt by week 42, 115% of the five-season average. When cash stays this weak with crush and exports this strong, the supply on offer is larger than the demand. Conviction is low because Saskatchewan cash has firmed against January, to CAD 76.13/t under on 26 October from CAD 86.75/t under on 24 September, and the carry eased on the latest session, to CAD 11.50/t from CAD 12.30/t.
What changed today
- CBOT corn moves from bearish bias to neutral: US corn has landed below Argentine corn in Europe and Egypt for three sessions in a row.
- Euronext corn moves from bullish bias to neutral: EU corn imports, at 1.92 Mt by week 44, arrive at the pace the balance sheet needs.
- CBOT soybean meal moves from neutral to bearish bias: the curve has moved into carry and export sales cover a smaller share of the programme than in any of the five previous seasons.
- ICE canola moves from neutral to bearish bias: Saskatchewan cash in October is the weakest in years, with a carry close to the widest of recent seasons.
To watch: weekly US export sales of wheat, corn, soybeans and soybean meal, C&F corn prices in Europe and Egypt by origin, US Gulf corn and soybean cash, the November USDA balances, EU wheat exports and corn imports, Rouen wheat and rapeseed cash, Bordeaux corn cash, the Euronext wheat, corn and rapeseed calendar spreads, US Gulf and French wheat FOB, soybean prices delivered to China by origin, the CBOT soybean meal curve and Gulf meal premiums, US soybean oil stocks and biofuel use, renewable diesel margins and RIN credits, Canadian September crush, Saskatchewan canola cash and the ICE canola calendar spread.
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