Desk View — 4 November 2026: Euronext pays to store rapeseed but not wheat or corn, while US soybeans keep finding buyers

Euronext now pays to store rapeseed and still refuses to pay for wheat or corn: May rapeseed trades €4.50/t over February, up from €1.75/t on 30 October, when the norm at this date is a €1.50/t discount, while March wheat sits €1.25/t under December and June corn €2.75/t under March. In the US, buyers keep taking soybeans while corn waits for them. We are bullish on CBOT soybeans, Euronext milling wheat, Euronext corn and ICE canola, bearish on CBOT corn, CBOT soybean meal and Euronext rapeseed, and neutral on CBOT SRW wheat, KC HRW wheat and CBOT soybean oil.

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Wheat

Euronext milling wheat (bullish bias). The European market will not pay to hold wheat into spring. March trades €1.25/t under December, against a median of €3.25/t over at this date in recent seasons, and Rouen cash stands €0.75/t under December, the firmest at this date since 2016 (€0.25/t over) and against €1/t to €5.75/t under in the five previous years. Both balance sheets see EU ending stocks falling: USDA to 11.72 Mt from 18.97 Mt, the European Commission to 10.60 Mt from 15.45 Mt. Part of the pull comes from Europe's short corn crop: wheat trades €25.50/t under corn on the nearby Euronext contracts, against a median of €10.50/t over, so feed buyers turn to wheat and absorb what would otherwise be spare. Conviction is low because France has wheat: collectors held 12.39 Mt at the end of September, inside the 9.66 to 13.32 Mt of the five previous seasons, and French port loadings reached 2.25 Mt by week 45 against 2.70 Mt last season. Russia holds ending stocks of 19.09 Mt, against 11.99 Mt last season, still to ship, and Argentine wheat, now being harvested, already lands in Algeria and Morocco $5.75/t under French wheat. That competition is the risk to watch if it lasts.

CBOT SRW wheat (neutral). Soft red wheat has no imbalance of its own. US Gulf cash is firm, at $40.88/t over CBOT December, but Gulf corn is just as firm, $41.30/t over CBOT against a long-run median of $30/t, and Gulf soybeans $45.68/t against a median of $27.85/t: the premium reflects Gulf export logistics shared by every crop, not scarce soft red wheat. The curve has tightened for one session only, March 11 c/bu over December against 13 c/bu on 2 November, just under the lower quarter for the date (11.50 c/bu) and a median of 16.75 c/bu. The US crop is smaller, at 41.74 Mt against 54.14 Mt last season, but ending stocks stay comfortable at 20.14 Mt, against 25.04 Mt, and US SRW is offered $7/t over French wheat FOB, too dear to win export business.

KC HRW wheat (neutral). Hard red winter keeps its usual premium over soft red wheat and nothing pulls on it. HRW sells $30.25/t over SRW FOB at the US Gulf, close to its long-run median of $34.25/t and well inside the $12.75 to $49/t between the lower and upper quarters. Abroad, US wheat lands in Egypt $47.25/t above French wheat, so no export outlet comes looking for hard red winter.

Corn

CBOT corn (bearish bias). US corn is waiting for buyers. Sales cover 28.0% of the USDA export programme of 83.82 Mt, when the five previous seasons had sold 31.9% to 47.4% of their final USDA exports by the same week; even at the pace of the fastest of them, exports would end 10.2 Mt short of the programme. The market says the same thing by paying to store: March trades 13.75 c/bu over December, above the upper quarter for the date (12.75 c/bu) and a median of 9.25 c/bu. Conviction is low because US corn is already cheaper than Brazilian and Argentine corn delivered to Europe ($242.50/t C&F, against $249/t and $249.25/t) and to Egypt ($260.50/t, against $262.25/t and $270.50/t), because ethanol plants grind hard, at 1.12 million barrels a day in week 43 against 1.04 to 1.11 million in the same week of the five previous seasons, and because USDA already sees ending stocks falling, to 46.97 Mt from 53.22 Mt. A late harvest, 74% done against 81% to 91% at the same week in four previous seasons, also explains part of the delay in sales.

Euronext corn (bullish bias). Europe is short of corn and pays for the grain on hand. June trades €2.75/t under March, against a median of €2.75/t over at this date and below the lowest level seen at this date in recent seasons (€2.25/t under) at every session since March became the front month. Physical corn confirms it: Bordeaux cash stands €2.25/t over March, against €11.50/t under to €2/t over at the same date in the five previous years, and Constanta corn trades $92.80/t over CBOT against a long-run median of $37.57/t. France harvested 6.63 Mt against 12.99 Mt last season, and USDA puts EU ending stocks at 5.05 Mt, the lowest since 2007/08 (4.73 Mt). The way out is visible, and it is what holds conviction low: US corn lands in Europe $38/t under Euronext March converted to dollars, and imports, 1.92 Mt by week 44 against a USDA figure of 23.5 Mt for the season, would fill the gap if they accelerated.

Soybeans

CBOT soybeans (bullish). Demand is emptying the US export book. Sales cover 62.4% of the USDA programme of 46.13 Mt, against 38.7% to 58.4% at the same week in the five previous seasons, and leave 17.35 Mt to sell, against 22.39 to 28.43 Mt. At the pace of any of those five seasons, sales would end above the programme. US beans are offered $9.25/t under Brazilian beans FOB, US Gulf cash pays $45.68/t over CBOT January, the firmest at this date since 2022 ($91.24/t), and the curve has stopped paying to store: March trades only 6.75 c/bu over January, down from 9.75 c/bu on 2 November and against a median of 11 c/bu. The brake is China, the main buyer: its soybean stocks stood at 7.78 Mt in week 44, against 2.88 to 7.11 Mt in the same week of the five previous seasons, and its meal stocks at 1.39 Mt, against 0.19 to 1.15 Mt. The next two weekly US sales reports will show whether it keeps buying.

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CBOT soybean meal (bearish bias). US plants crush hard because crushing pays, and meal is the product they have to move. The crush margin stands at $93.60/t, against $62.33/t a year earlier; plants processed 5.34 Mt of soybeans in September, against 5.38 Mt last season and 4.18 to 4.82 Mt in the four seasons before, and USDA expects 59.69 Mt of meal against 57.07 Mt. Export sales, at 6.06 Mt by week 44 and projected on the usual seasonal pattern, would end 2.8 Mt short of the programme of 20.59 Mt, a large volume next to projected ending stocks of only 0.41 Mt: unless domestic feed takes it, the balance sheet loosens. The curve no longer shows tension, with May $3.70 per short ton over December against $7 under on 12 October, without proving a surplus either. Conviction is low because no price measure confirms it yet, and because Brazilian plants, on a margin of $6.07/t against $22.09/t a year earlier, are set to slow.

CBOT soybean oil (neutral). US soybean oil stocks are low, at 0.478 Mt at the end of September, the lowest in recent years, against 0.484 to 0.764 Mt at the same point in the five previous seasons, and the renewable diesel margin stays wide, at $763.75/t on 30 October against $82.70/t a year earlier. But biofuel use slowed in August, to 0.63 Mt from 0.77 Mt in July, even if it still exceeds the 0.42 to 0.55 Mt of previous Augusts; the curve does not pay for oil on hand, with July 0.99 c/lb over December against 0.66 c/lb on 21 October; and palm oil is plentiful, with Malaysian stocks at 3.51 Mt at the end of September against 1.76 to 2.36 Mt in the five previous Septembers. Neither tension nor surplus is established, and September biofuel use will settle it.

Rapeseed and canola

Euronext rapeseed (bearish bias). Europe has more rapeseed than its crushers want, because soybeans are cheaper. The market now pays to store: May trades €4.50/t over February, up for a third session running, when the norm at this date is a €1.50/t discount. French collectors held 2.17 Mt at the end of September, the largest in recent years, against 1.67 to 2.02 Mt in the five previous seasons. EU crushers processed only 4.52 Mt from July to September, against 4.56 to 4.83 Mt, as soybeans trade $156.59/t under rapeseed against a median of $95.35/t, and EU seed imports reached only 1.19 Mt by week 44, against 1.23 to 2.37 Mt. Conviction is low because Rouen cash, at €6/t under February, sits near its long-run median of €5.50/t under, and because the French crush margin is high, at €226/t against €168.18/t a year earlier, and should end up drawing seed into the plants; October crush will tell.

ICE canola (bullish bias). Canada is crushing and exporting far faster than last year from a crop of the same size. August-September crush runs 31% above last season and exports reached 1.89 Mt by week 43, 54% ahead of the 1.23 Mt of last season, on opening stocks plus crop of 23.94 Mt against 23.83 Mt. If that pace held, ending stocks would fall well below the 1.97 Mt StatCan projects, and something would have to ration demand. Conviction is low because the physical market does not pay for that scarcity yet: the curve still pays to store, with March CAD 9.50/t over January against a median of CAD 6.90/t, though down from CAD 12.30/t on 26 October, and Saskatchewan farm cash stands CAD 73.58/t under ICE January, against CAD 63.31/t under on 2 November and a long-run median of CAD 31.50/t under. Canola is also dear against soybeans, which trade $112.09/t under it against a median of $47.39/t. October crush will settle it.

What changed today

None of our views changed today.

To watch: weekly US export sales of soybeans, corn and soybean meal, Chinese soybean and meal stocks, US biofuel use of soybean oil for September and US soybean oil stocks, renewable diesel margins, the CBOT soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil and corn curves, US ethanol output, EU corn imports, C&F corn prices in Europe and Egypt by origin, the Euronext corn, wheat and rapeseed calendar spreads, Rouen wheat and Bordeaux corn cash, EU wheat exports and French port loadings, Argentine and French wheat prices in North Africa, US Gulf cash premiums, EU rapeseed crush for October, Canadian October crush and weekly canola exports, the ICE canola calendar spread and Saskatchewan cash, and the November USDA balances.