Desk View — 11 November 2026: Rouen wheat trades over futures despite larger competitor stocks, while US corn sales trail the USDA programme

French buyers pay over futures for grain they can have now: Rouen milling wheat cash stood €0.25/t over Euronext December on 9 November, and Euronext June corn trades €2.75/t under March. In the US, corn is still waiting for export buyers, with sales covering 29.8% of the USDA programme by week 45. We are bullish on Euronext milling wheat, Euronext corn, CBOT soybeans and ICE canola, bearish on CBOT corn, CBOT soybean meal, CBOT soybean oil and Euronext rapeseed, and neutral on CBOT SRW wheat and KC HRW wheat.

Wheat

Euronext milling wheat (bullish). France is short of wheat it can load now, and the market pays for it. Rouen cash (12% protein) stood €0.25/t over Euronext December on 9 November, from €1.75/t under in early September. At the same date, Rouen was under futures every year from 2017 to 2025, by €6.25/t to €0.25/t; only 2016, at €0.75/t over, was firmer. The curve refuses to pay for storage: March trades €3.75/t under December, when the median at this date is a carry of €3.50/t, and the discount holds while open interest moves from December into March, now the larger of the two. Holders are not being paid to keep wheat until March, and buyers want it before. Both balance sheets see EU stocks falling: the European Commission puts 2026/27 ending stocks at 10.60 Mt against 15.45 Mt last season, and the USDA at 11.72 Mt against 18.97 Mt. The risk is competing supply. On 10 November the USDA added about 3.4 Mt to ending stocks in Russia, Ukraine, Argentina and Australia, and Argentine wheat landed in Algeria at $282.75/t and in Morocco at $282.25/t the same day, slightly under French wheat at $284/t and $283/t.

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CBOT SRW wheat (neutral). The physical market prices neither a shortage nor a surplus of soft red wheat. On 9 November US Gulf SRW cash stood $41.20/t over CBOT December and Gulf corn $40.58/t over CBOT December, so wheat earns no premium of its own: buyers pay for grain loaded at the Gulf, not for soft red wheat in particular. The curve pays a normal carry to store wheat, with March 12.50 c/bu over December, between the lower quarter for the date (10 c/bu) and the median (16.25 c/bu). Without a signal from cash or the curve, US export sales alone do not make a direction.

KC HRW wheat (neutral). Last week's drop in the hard red winter premium has not followed through. At the Gulf, HRW sold $29.75/t over SRW on 10 November, back to its 5 November level after $27.50/t on 9 November, though still below its median of $34.25/t. KC futures stand 41.50 c/bu over Chicago, or $15.25/t, so the cash premium over soft red wheat exceeds the futures premium by $14.50/t, against $11.15/t on 9 November. No particular outlet is pulling hard red winter wheat.

Corn

CBOT corn (bearish bias). US corn is waiting for export buyers. Sales reached 24.79 Mt by week 45, 29.8% of the USDA export programme of 83.19 Mt, against 33.7% to 49.4% of final exports at the same week in the five previous seasons. Even if sales from here followed the most favourable pattern of those seasons, they would end 11.6 Mt short of the programme. The market pays to store what is left: March trades 12.50 c/bu over December, at the upper quarter for the date (12.50 c/bu) and above the median of 9.25 c/bu. Conviction is low because the USDA cut its ending stocks forecast on 10 November, to 44.67 Mt from 46.97 Mt. The cut comes from a smaller crop, 403.71 Mt against 407.28 Mt, not from stronger demand, since exports were trimmed to 83.19 Mt from 83.82 Mt. The harvest is also late, 81% done by week 46 against 88% to 95% at the same week from 2021 to 2024, which keeps part of the crop off the market for now.

Euronext corn (bullish bias). Europe is short of corn now, and the curve pays for corn on hand. June trades €2.75/t under March, a deeper discount than at this date in any recent season, when the median is a carry of €2.75/t; on 1 June, June still traded €2.25/t over March. Bordeaux cash confirms it at €2.75/t over Euronext March on 9 November, against €11.25/t to €1.50/t under at the same date in the five previous years. The European Commission puts EU ending stocks at 13.49 Mt against 20.30 Mt last season, the smallest since 2015/16 (12.12 Mt), and on 10 November the USDA cut neighbouring Ukraine's corn exports to 20 Mt from 22 Mt. Imports are the way out, and they hold conviction low: on 10 November US corn landed in Europe at $239.35/t, about $45/t under Euronext March converted to dollars. Yet EU imports move at a normal pace, 2.44 Mt by week 46 against an average of 2.18 Mt in the five previous seasons, so the tension is not being relieved.

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Soybeans

CBOT soybeans (bullish bias). The US has already sold most of its soybeans. On 10 November the USDA raised its export forecast to 46.81 Mt from 46.13 Mt and cut ending stocks to 8.17 Mt from 8.57 Mt. With sales at 30.23 Mt by week 45, 16.58 Mt remain to sell, against 21.63 to 26.57 Mt at the same week of the five previous seasons. The market will not pay to store beans: March trades 6.50 c/bu over January, under the lower quarter for the date (7.50 c/bu) and a median of 11 c/bu. Conviction is low because future demand is heading south. China held 7.87 Mt of soybeans in week 45, against 2.69 to 7.62 Mt at the same week of the five previous seasons, and at 9 November prices and 5 November freight rates Brazilian beans land in China about $17/t under US beans. Sales already made support the US balance; the next Chinese cargoes look set to come from Brazil.

CBOT soybean meal (bearish bias). US plants crush for oil, and the meal comes on top. The crush margin stands at $85.52/t, against $66.23/t a year earlier. The USDA kept its meal export programme at 20.59 Mt, 2.2 Mt above last season's 18.42 Mt. Sales reached 6.45 Mt by week 45; on the patterns of the five previous seasons, the middle case ends between 16.9 and 18.0 Mt, short of the programme. The US Gulf meal premium over CBOT December was already slipping before the report, to $48.50/t on 9 November from $59.50/t on 2 November. Conviction is low because week 45 sales were strong, at 0.39 Mt against 0.17 to 0.40 Mt in the same week of the five previous seasons, and because projected US ending stocks leave little slack, at 0.36 Mt, within the 0.28 to 0.41 Mt of the five previous seasons.

CBOT soybean oil (bearish bias). The published US balance is tight, but the market no longer pays for that tightness. The curve pays to store oil, with July 1.41 c/lb over December on 10 November, when in spring it paid for oil on hand, with July 3.11 c/lb under December on 5 May. US soybean oil futures stood $199/t over Argentine oil FOB on 9 November, against an average of $355/t in June and $261/t in October: US oil has lost most of the premium that kept it out of competition. Conviction is low because the USDA balance stays tight, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 5.1% against 4.6% last season and 5.6% to 6.0% in the three seasons before, and US stocks were 0.478 Mt at the end of September, against 0.484 to 0.764 Mt at the same point of the five previous seasons.

Rapeseed and canola

Euronext rapeseed (bearish bias). Europe has more rapeseed than its crushers take. May trades €2.75/t over February, when the norm at this date is a discount of €1.25/t. French collectors held 2.17 Mt at the end of September, the largest in recent years, against 1.67 to 2.02 Mt in the five previous seasons. EU seed imports, at 1.38 Mt by week 46, are level with last season (1.40 Mt). Conviction is low because the European Commission sees 2026/27 EU supply 1.4 Mt smaller than last season, and Rouen cash, at €4.50/t under February on 9 November, sits close to its median of €5.50/t under: the cash market does not yet price the surplus.

ICE canola (bullish bias). Canada crushes and exports faster than its crop allows. August-September crush ran 31% above last season, and exports reached 2.21 Mt by week 44, against 1.42 Mt last season; week 44 alone shipped 0.32 Mt, against 0.12 to 0.27 Mt in the same week of the five previous seasons. Supply is the same size as last year, at 23.94 Mt of opening stocks plus crop against 23.83 Mt, so at this pace ending stocks would fall well below the 1.97 Mt StatCan projects. The cash market is starting to price it: the ICE March carry over January narrowed to CAD 10.60/t on 10 November from CAD 12/t on 6 November, and Saskatchewan farm cash firmed to CAD 67.82/t under ICE January from CAD 71.55/t under. Conviction is low because both still describe plentiful grain today, against a median carry of CAD 6.90/t and a median cash discount of CAD 31.50/t. October crush figures are the next test.

What changed today

No view and no conviction changed today.

To watch: Rouen wheat cash and the Euronext wheat curve, EU wheat exports, Argentine and French wheat prices delivered to North Africa, the Euronext corn curve and Bordeaux corn cash, EU corn imports and Ukrainian corn shipments, weekly US export sales of corn, soybeans and soybean meal, the CBOT corn, soybean and soybean oil curves, the US Gulf cash premiums for wheat, corn and soybean meal, US and Brazilian soybean prices delivered to China, US October soybean crush and soybean oil stocks, the US premium over Argentine soybean oil, the Euronext rapeseed curve, French collector rapeseed stocks for October, Canadian October crush and weekly canola exports, the ICE canola curve and Saskatchewan cash.