Desk View — 9 October 2026: France pays for wheat and corn on hand, US wheat and corn struggle to find buyers

French buyers are paying for wheat and corn they can have now: cash prices hold firm against futures and the curves pay little or nothing to store grain into the spring. US wheat and corn face the opposite problem, with export sales covering a smaller share of the USDA programme than in any recent season. We are bullish on Euronext milling wheat, Euronext corn and CBOT soybean oil, bearish on CBOT SRW wheat, CBOT corn, CBOT soybean meal and Euronext rapeseed, and neutral on HRW wheat, soybeans and canola.

Wheat

Euronext milling wheat (bullish, low conviction). French wheat on hand is being paid for without a storage discount. Rouen cash trades €1.25/t under futures, against a long-run median of €3.75/t under, and only 2021 was firmer at this date in the past ten years. March pays only €2/t over December, the second narrowest spread for the date in five years, so holders are not paid to keep grain into the spring and the market wants it now. French ports also loaded 0.30 Mt in the latest week, the largest volume for that week in six seasons against 0.03 to 0.28 Mt before, though it is a single week. Conviction stays low because French farms and stores held 12.26 Mt of wheat at the end of August, the second largest stock at that date in six seasons after 13.32 Mt in 2021, and Russia has a full crop it has barely started to ship.

CBOT SRW wheat (bearish, low conviction). US export sales cover 47.9% of the USDA export programme, the smallest share at this point in six seasons (49.1% to 60.1% before), because US soft red winter is the most expensive milling wheat at port, $24.50/t over French wheat on a FOB basis. What buyers do not take stays in the US balance. Conviction is low because the futures curve pays little to store, with March only 14.50 c/bu over December, the narrowest for the date in five years, and because US stocks on 1 September landed where the balance sheet expected them.

KC HRW wheat (neutral). Hard red winter sells $44.50/t over soft red winter FOB at the US Gulf. The gap between that physical premium and the premium on the futures board is $25/t, close to its average of $27.4/t since 2021. Nothing in the physical market sets HRW apart from the wider US wheat balance.

Corn

CBOT corn (bearish, low conviction). Old-crop supply is larger than planned on both sides of the Americas. The US held 4.39 Mt more corn on 1 September than the USDA balance had pencilled in, and Argentina ends its season with 9.91 Mt in stock, nearly three times last year's 3.71 Mt. US export sales cover 23.5% of the programme, the smallest share at this point in six seasons, and US corn now lands in Europe under Argentine corn on a C&F basis for a second session. Conviction is low because the US harvest is slow, 23% done against 30% to 41% at the same week in the four previous seasons on record, so the size of the crop is still open until the October USDA report.

Euronext corn (bullish, low conviction). French corn on hand is short, and buyers pay for it in the middle of the harvest. Four measures of nearby supply point the same way: Bordeaux cash trades €4.75/t over futures, the strongest premium for the date in ten years; March trades €5/t under November, the deepest discount for the date in five years, so the market pays for corn now rather than later; French corn FOB stands €14.1/t over Euronext futures; and FranceAgriMer projects end-season stocks of 1.46 Mt against 1.97 Mt last season. This comes with the French harvest 67% done, level with the fastest of the past six seasons. Cheaper imports are the risk that keeps conviction low: Euronext corn has stood $45 to $69/t above the cheapest corn delivered into Europe for six weeks without the cash premium or the inverted curve giving way, and Ukraine has harvested only 6% of its crop.

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Soybeans

CBOT soybeans (neutral). The US export book covers 49.7% of the USDA programme, the second highest share at this point in six seasons, and the latest week's sales of 0.55 Mt beat the 0.48 Mt a week the programme still needs. The Gulf still pays for beans, with Nola cash $39.67/t over futures against $27.97/t a year ago. Against that, Brazil still has 25.3 Mt to ship to meet its official export forecast, the most at this point in six seasons, and lands beans in China $16/t under US beans. The two offset.

CBOT soybean meal (bearish, low conviction). Argentina has crushed 11.5% more soybeans since April than its five-season average, and that meal has to find buyers. The EU imports only its usual tonnage, 97% of the five-season average to date, while the USDA programme assumes more. No physical price points to tightness: the premium of Argentine meal over the board has no direction, and the futures curve is flat, with May only $0.6 per short ton over December.

CBOT soybean oil (bullish, low conviction). US soybean oil stocks at the end of August gave the lowest cover against crush for that date in six years, because biofuel plants keep absorbing more oil: they used 0.77 Mt in July, their largest month in five seasons of data and more than the USDA balance assumes. Cheap South American oil does not ease that, since the US imports less than 0.3 Mt a year whatever the price gap. Conviction is low because the futures curve does not pay a premium for nearby oil and the July figure is a single published month.

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Rapeseed and canola

Euronext rapeseed (bearish, low conviction). French rapeseed is in surplus where it is stored. At the last cash print, Rouen rapeseed traded €25/t under the February contract, the deepest discount for the date in five years (€3.5/t to €14.25/t under before), and February now trades €45/t over November against €1.75/t to €17.75/t at this date in the four previous years: the market pays an unusually large return to anyone who stores seed. EU crushers process 5.6% less than their five-season average despite a high crush margin, and France is pushing its seed into exports. The next Rouen cash prices on 12 October and September crush data will show whether conviction rises.

ICE canola (neutral). Canadian crushers processed 1.24 Mt in August, against 0.63 to 0.87 Mt in the same month of the past five seasons. Against that, Saskatchewan cash trades CAD 67.12/t under futures, the weakest for the date in ten years, and the futures curve pays to store, with a crop 45% harvested against 71% to 97% at this week in the past five seasons. Strong demand and heavy harvest supply offset each other.

What changed today

• Euronext milling wheat: neutral to bullish, low conviction, on firm Rouen cash and a narrow March to December spread.
• CBOT SRW wheat: neutral to bearish, low conviction, on the weakest US export sales coverage in six seasons.
• Euronext corn: neutral to bullish, low conviction, as six weeks of cheaper imports have not broken the Bordeaux cash premium or the inverted curve.
• CBOT soybean meal: neutral to bearish, low conviction, on heavy Argentine crushing against ordinary EU imports.
• CBOT soybean oil: neutral to bullish, low conviction, as South American oil does not reach the US and July biofuel use ran above the balance.
• Euronext rapeseed: neutral to bearish, low conviction, on the deepest Rouen cash discount to February in five years.

To watch: the October USDA report for US corn and soybeans, weekly US export sales, the Rouen and Bordeaux cash prices, the Euronext corn and rapeseed calendar spreads, Ukrainian corn harvest progress, September crush data in the EU, the US and Canada, and US soybean oil stocks and biofuel use.