The US corn crop the market saw shrinking has come back bigger
After two months of falling crop ratings, the USDA lifted the US corn yield to 181.2 bushels an acre, against an average trade estimate of 177.7. The crop is now larger than the USDA's first projection in May, and the question has moved to who buys it.
The USDA raised its US corn yield to 181.2 bushels an acre on Friday, up from 178.5 in September, against an average trade estimate of 177.7. Production rises 6 Mt to 407 Mt. That is more than the September report took off, and it puts the crop above the USDA's first projection in May. Chicago corn traded about 6% lower after the release.
Two months of ratings said the opposite
The cut looked like the safe call. US corn held at 67 to 68% good to very good through June and July, then lost 13 points over August and September, down to 54% in early October. Analysts blamed a September that was too wet, and the USDA's own September report had already cut 5.4 Mt.
Chicago traded that story, and December corn climbed from 460.5 to 546 cents a bushel between August 11 and September 1. The first crack came from the old crop. On September 30 the quarterly stocks count found far more corn left on September 1 than anyone expected, and December lost 4% that day. By the eve of Friday's report it had given back more than half of its summer rise.
The new yield is below last year's 186.5, but that is a demanding benchmark: last season produced 431 Mt on about a million more hectares. At 407 Mt this crop is still well above the 378 to 390 Mt of the two seasons before that, and above what the condition scores described all summer.
The summer's tightening is mostly undone
Both surprises now sit in the same balance: the old corn found on September 1 is carried into the new season, and the bigger crop comes on top. Projected US ending stocks for 2026/27, which the summer had cut from 49.7 Mt in May to 39.8 in September, are back at 47.0.
An export line that raises questions
The USDA left US exports almost unchanged at 83.8 Mt, and that is the number our reading hangs on. It is a demanding one. Export sales cover 23% of that programme at the start of October, against 34% at the same point last season. To get there, sales would have to run at about 1.3 Mt a week until next September. Even last season, when the US exported 87 Mt, they managed 1.2 from this point on, and they have averaged 0.8 over the past four weeks.
Our reading is that the USDA is counting on buyers who have not shown up yet. The drop in Chicago since the report makes US corn cheaper to buy, so the next few weeks are the test: if sales do not pick up at these prices, part of the 6 Mt added to the crop stays in US bins, and the balance ends up looser than the 47 Mt the USDA now shows. Two signals in our data will tell:
- Weekly export sales. A run close to 1.3 Mt a week would mean buyers are there for the bigger crop and the programme holds. Another month near 0.8 would turn part of those 6 Mt into US stocks.
- The November WASDE. A cut to US exports there would mean the USDA is moving toward the same reading.
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