Desk View — 12 November 2026: Argentine wheat undercuts France in Algeria and Morocco while French buyers still pay for wheat on hand

Argentine wheat lands in Algeria and Morocco under French wheat, by $5.00/t and $4.50/t on 11 November, when in mid-November of the past two years it landed at least $1.00/t above. French buyers still pay for wheat they can have now, so the shortage in France is not resolved, but it has a visible substitute. We are bullish on Euronext milling wheat, Euronext corn, CBOT soybeans and ICE canola, bearish on CBOT corn, CBOT soybean meal, CBOT soybean oil and Euronext rapeseed, and neutral on CBOT SRW wheat and KC HRW wheat.

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Wheat

Euronext milling wheat (bullish bias). France is still short of wheat it can load now. Rouen cash (12% protein) stood €0.25/t over Euronext December on 9 November, when the median is €3.75/t under. The curve refuses to pay for storage: March trades €3.50/t under December, when the median at this date is a carry of €3.50/t and even the lower quarter a carry of €0.25/t, and each later Euronext wheat contract trades under the one before. Holders are not paid to keep French wheat until spring. Argentine wheat caps that shortage. It has regularly landed in North Africa under French wheat this autumn, by as much as $11.25/t in Algeria on 11 September, and it still does in mid-November, when at the same date of the past two years it landed at least $1.00/t above. Argentina, harvesting a crop the USDA raised to 23 Mt from 21.5 Mt on 10 November, landed wheat in Algeria at $281.75/t on 11 November against $286.75/t for French wheat, and in Morocco at $281.25/t against $285.75/t. The French price rose $2.75/t that day while Argentine wheat eased $1.00/t. North African buyers have an alternative to French wheat, which limits what the French shortage can extract, and that holds conviction low.

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CBOT SRW wheat (neutral). US soft red wheat has no export outlet, but nothing piles up. At the freight US wheat pays to Algeria, SRW would land there about $21/t above French wheat on 11 November. Yet US sales reached 12.06 Mt by week 45, 59.1% of the 20.41 Mt programme, against 58.8% to 68.0% at the same week of the five previous seasons. The curve pays a normal carry, with March 14.75 c/bu over December against a median of 16 c/bu. At the Gulf, SRW cash stood $41.72/t over CBOT December and corn $41.38/t, so wheat's own premium is $0.34/t, against $4.12/t a year earlier. The physical market prices neither a shortage nor a surplus.

KC HRW wheat (neutral). No outlet pulls hard red winter wheat. At the Gulf, HRW sold $25.25/t over SRW on 11 November, from $29.75/t the day before, while KC futures stood 40 c/bu over Chicago, from 41.50 c/bu. The cash premium now exceeds the futures premium by $10.55/t, against $14.50/t a day earlier. But the narrowing comes from a Gulf HRW quote unchanged at $287.25/t on both days while KC futures rose 5.25 c/bu, so it does not establish a move.

Corn

CBOT corn (bearish bias). US corn is waiting for export buyers. Sales reached 24.79 Mt by week 45, 29.8% of the USDA export programme of 83.19 Mt, against 33.7% to 49.4% of final exports at the same week in the five previous seasons. Even if sales from here followed the most favourable pattern of those seasons, they would end 11.6 Mt short of the programme. The market pays to store what is left: March trades 12.25 c/bu over December, at the upper quarter for the date (12.25 c/bu) and above the median of 9.25 c/bu. Conviction is low because Gulf cash is firm, at $41.38/t over CBOT December on 11 November, near the upper quarter of its range ($41.50/t) and above its median of $30.03/t, while the harvest is late, 81% done by week 46 against 88% to 95% at the same week from 2021 to 2024: sellers are holding grain back as much as buyers are missing. The USDA also cut ending stocks to 44.67 Mt from 46.97 Mt on a smaller crop, 403.71 Mt against 407.28 Mt.

Euronext corn (bullish bias). Europe is short of corn at home, and every cash market around it says so. June trades €2.75/t under March, a deeper discount than at this date in any recent season, when the median is a carry of €2.75/t. Bordeaux cash stood €2.75/t over Euronext March on 9 November, against a median of €7/t under, and Romanian corn at Constanta costs $90.38/t over CBOT, against a median of $37.67/t. Neighbouring Ukraine has shipped 0.32 Mt by week 44, about a third of the 0.94 Mt five-season average, and the USDA puts EU ending stocks at 5.05 Mt, the smallest since 2007/08 (4.73 Mt). Imports are the way out: US corn landed in Europe at $242.85/t on 11 November, about $41/t under Euronext March converted to dollars. Yet EU imports move only at a normal pace, 2.44 Mt by week 46 against a five-season average of 2.18 Mt. The tension holds as long as importers do not step up, and the gap is wide enough for them to do so at any time, which keeps conviction low.

Soybeans

CBOT soybeans (bullish bias). US soybeans are wanted now. With 16.58 Mt left to sell against the USDA programme, against 21.63 to 26.57 Mt at the same week of the five previous seasons, Gulf cash stood $47.27/t over CBOT January on 11 November, against a median of $27.88/t, and the curve pays little to store: March trades 7.25 c/bu over January, under the lower quarter for the date (7.50 c/bu) and the median of 11 c/bu. Conviction is low because future demand points elsewhere. China held 7.87 Mt of soybeans in week 45, against 2.69 to 7.62 Mt at the same week of the five previous seasons, and Brazilian beans landed in China at $557.88/t on 11 November against $572.90/t for US beans, $15.02/t cheaper. The next Chinese cargoes look set to come from Brazil.

CBOT soybean meal (bearish bias). US plants crush for oil, and the meal comes on top. The US crush margin stands at $91.79/t, against $66.69/t a year earlier. Meal export sales reached 6.45 Mt by week 45, 31.3% of the 20.59 Mt programme, against 31.4% to 40.3% at the same week of the five previous seasons, and that programme sits 2.2 Mt above last season's 18.42 Mt. At this pace, exports fall short. Conviction is low because projected US ending stocks leave little slack, at 0.36 Mt against 0.28 to 0.41 Mt in the five previous seasons, and Brazilian crushers, at a margin of $7.01/t against $29.71/t a year earlier, have little reason to push out more meal.

CBOT soybean oil (bearish bias). The market no longer pays for tightness in US soybean oil. The curve pays to store oil, with July 1.40 c/lb over December on 11 November, close to its widest so far, 1.47 c/lb on 9 November. US soybean oil futures stood $202/t over Argentine oil FOB on 11 November, the narrowest since April ($177.80/t on 24 April), against an average of $355/t in June and $261/t in October. Conviction is low because the published balance stays tight, with a USDA stocks-to-use ratio of 5.1%, against 4.6% last season and 5.6% to 6.0% in the three seasons before, and US stocks at 0.478 Mt at the end of September, against 0.484 to 0.764 Mt at the same point of the five previous seasons.

Rapeseed and canola

Euronext rapeseed (bearish bias). Europe has more rapeseed than its crushers take. French collectors held 2.17 Mt at the end of September, the largest in recent years, against 1.67 to 2.02 Mt in the five previous seasons, while EU crushers processed 3.18 Mt in August and September, against 3.25 to 3.43 Mt over the same months of those seasons. The curve still pays to store seed: May trades €1.50/t over February, above the upper quarter for the date (€1.12/t), when the median is a €1.50/t discount. Conviction is low because the European Commission sees 2026/27 EU supply 1.4 Mt smaller than last season.

ICE canola (bullish bias). Canada crushes and exports faster than its crop allows. August-September crush ran 31% above last season, and exports reached 2.21 Mt by week 44, against 1.42 Mt last season, from a supply the same size as last year, 23.94 Mt of opening stocks plus crop against 23.83 Mt. At this pace, ending stocks would fall well below the 1.97 Mt StatCan projects. The cash market is starting to price it: the ICE March carry over January narrowed to CAD 10.60/t on 10 November from CAD 12/t on 6 November, and Saskatchewan farm cash firmed to CAD 67.82/t under ICE January from CAD 73.58/t under on 3 November. Conviction is low because both still describe plentiful grain today, against a median carry of CAD 6.90/t and a median cash discount of CAD 31.50/t.

What changed today

• Euronext milling wheat: still bullish, now with a bias rather than full conviction, because Argentine wheat lands in Algeria and Morocco under French wheat on every session since 2 November, below where it stood in mid-November of the past two years.

To watch: Argentine and French wheat prices delivered to Algeria and Morocco, Rouen wheat cash and the Euronext wheat curve, EU wheat exports, the Euronext corn curve and Bordeaux corn cash, EU corn imports and Ukrainian corn shipments, weekly US export sales of corn, soybeans and soybean meal, the CBOT corn, soybean and soybean oil curves, the US Gulf cash premiums for wheat, corn and soybeans, US and Brazilian soybean prices delivered to China, US October soybean crush and soybean oil stocks, the US premium over Argentine soybean oil, the Euronext rapeseed curve, French collector rapeseed stocks for October, Canadian October crush and weekly canola exports, the ICE canola curve and Saskatchewan cash.