Brazil is keeping the corn it could not ship
Conab has cut Brazil's corn exports by 3 Mt and lets stocks swell to nearly double their level of two years ago. The USDA made a similar cut but counts the corn as eaten, more than Brazil's booming ethanol demand can explain.
Conab cut 3 Mt off Brazil's corn exports on Friday, for this season and the next, and put every tonne of it into stocks. The agency now expects Brazil to end 2026/27 holding 20.9 Mt of corn, nearly double the 12 Mt it carried out of 2024/25, while still counting on a record 148 Mt crop to sell abroad at a high level.
The corn is not leaving
Brazil shipped 17.9 Mt of corn from June to October, a quarter less than a year earlier, and October alone ran at 5.7 Mt. Conab now writes 40.9 Mt of exports for the season instead of 43.9, and even the lower figure needs about 6.6 Mt a month through January. Price is not what holds it back: delivered into China or Japan, Brazilian corn sits more than 25 $/t under US corn.
Same missing exports, two different homes
The USDA has cut Brazil's exports too, by 5 Mt since July, but it sends the corn somewhere else. Where Conab stores it, the USDA has Brazil eating it: domestic use for 2025/26 has gone from 98.5 Mt in September to 103.5 Mt in November, 12 Mt more than the season before. Conab's use figure rises 7.2 Mt, a growth the agency puts mainly down to ethanol.
Ethanol cannot eat it all
Ethanol is the one outlet we can measure. Brazilian plants used 17 Mt of corn from February to September, 22% more than a year earlier, and at that pace the season adds 4 to 5 Mt of demand. That fits inside Conab's balance, with 2 to 3 Mt of growth left for feed and other uses. The USDA's figure needs 7 to 8 Mt from those same uses in a single year.
The ethanol boom is real, but on our reading it is not big enough to absorb what Brazil is failing to ship. The USDA would be counting as eaten corn that is more likely sitting in Brazilian silos.
Our reading: Conab is betting on next year's buyers
Conab keeps 2026/27 exports at 43 Mt, above this season's, and expects 10.7% more first-crop corn area, partly on hopes of stronger demand for Brazilian corn. That bet starts from corn already in the country: if this season's shipments keep lagging, 2026/27 opens on a heavier stock and its export line has more to prove. Three signals will show which way it goes:
- November and December shipments. Near 6.6 Mt a month, Conab's 40.9 Mt holds. Nearer October's 5.7, the stock grows past 19 Mt.
- Monthly corn use for ethanol. Clearly above the 2.2 Mt a month of the summer, the USDA's reading gains ground. Flat, Conab's stock looks the likelier home.
- The December WASDE. Another rise in Brazil's use widens the gap with Conab. A shift toward stocks closes it.
Get the Desk View by email
The conviction board and what changed, in your inbox on every publishing day. Free.
GrainBoard modules used in this note
For information only. Not investment advice.
Built with GrainBoard data
The supply & demand, trade-flow and price data behind this note, in one analytical workspace.