Desk View — 13 November 2026: US Gulf hard red winter wheat cash slips against its futures while France still pays for wheat and corn on hand

At the US Gulf, hard red winter wheat cash is letting go of its own futures: it stood $52.27/t over KC December on 11 November, against $61.61/t on 26 October, while soft red wheat, corn and soybeans held their premiums over futures. In France, buyers still pay over futures for wheat and corn they can have now. We are bullish on Euronext milling wheat, Euronext corn, CBOT soybeans and ICE canola, bearish on KC HRW wheat, CBOT corn, CBOT soybean meal and Euronext rapeseed, and neutral on CBOT SRW wheat and CBOT soybean oil.

Wheat

Euronext milling wheat (bullish bias). France is still short of wheat it can load now. Rouen cash (12% protein) stood €0.25/t over Euronext December on 9 November, when the median is €3.75/t under. The whole curve is inverted: March trades €2.00/t under December on 12 November, against a median carry of €3.50/t at this date, and May and September trade lower still, so holders are paid to sell now rather than store until spring. Wheat also feeds cheaper than corn: Euronext wheat traded €25.75/t under Euronext corn, against a median premium of €10.50/t, which draws feed demand onto wheat. French private ports keep shipping at a normal pace, 2.69 Mt by week 47, level with the five-season average, while French FOB wheat firmed to $255.50/t on 12 November from $253/t on 2 November: the shortage is rationed through price, not relieved. Conviction is low because Argentine wheat lands in Algeria $5.75/t under French wheat and in Morocco $5.25/t under (12 November), when in mid-November of the past two years it landed at least $1.00/t above. Argentina is harvesting and selling into North Africa, and that caps what the French shortage can extract.

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CBOT SRW wheat (neutral). US soft red wheat has no imbalance of its own. Its Gulf cash premium comes from river logistics that corn and soybeans pay too: SRW stood $41.72/t over CBOT December on 11 November and corn $41.38/t, leaving wheat's own share at $0.34/t, against $4.12/t a year earlier. The curve pays a normal carry, with March 15 c/bu over December against a median of 15.75 c/bu. SRW is too dear for North Africa, landing in Algeria about $21/t above French wheat at the freight US wheat pays, and projected US wheat ending stocks of 20.22 Mt sit inside the 15.50 to 25.04 Mt range of the five previous seasons. The physical market prices neither a shortage nor a surplus.

KC HRW wheat (bearish bias). Hard red winter wheat is the only Gulf wheat letting go of its futures. Gulf HRW cash stood $52.27/t over KC December on 11 November, against $61.61/t on 26 October: in about three weeks it fell from above the median of recent years ($56.86/t) to below it. Over the same weeks, the Gulf premium over futures moved from $40.16/t to $41.72/t for SRW, from $38.63/t to $41.38/t for corn and from $33.53/t to $47.27/t for soybeans, so the barge logistics behind those premiums do not explain the move. No buyer pulls it: US wheat lands in Algeria $44.75/t above French wheat (12 November), and US stocks are comfortable. Conviction is low because a soft basis is not yet a surplus.

Corn

CBOT corn (bearish bias). US corn is waiting for export buyers. Sales reached 24.79 Mt by week 45, 29.8% of the USDA export programme of 83.19 Mt, against 33.7% to 49.4% of final exports at the same week of the five previous seasons. Even if sales from here followed the most favourable of those seasons, exports would end about 11.6 Mt short of the programme. The market still pays to store the corn that is left: March trades 12.25 c/bu over December on 12 November, above the upper quarter for the date (12 c/bu) and the median of 9.25 c/bu. Conviction is low because the domestic side is firm. Gulf cash stood $41.38/t over CBOT December on 11 November, above its median of $30.05/t, with the harvest 81% done by week 46 against 88% to 95% at the same week from 2021 to 2024, so sellers are holding grain back. The US ethanol margin stood at $103.17/t of corn on 13 November, against $74.67 to $93.91/t in mid-November from 2022 to 2025, which supports domestic use. What is missing is a foreign buyer.

Euronext corn (bullish bias). Europe is short of corn now and pays for it. June trades €4.00/t under March on 12 November, below every past season at this date, when the median is a carry of €2.75/t, and no contract in delivery explains the discount. Bordeaux cash stood €2.75/t over Euronext March on 9 November, against a median of €7/t under. Supply explains it: FranceAgriMer puts the French corn crop at 6.63 Mt, against 12.99 Mt last season, the USDA puts EU ending stocks at 5.05 Mt, the smallest since 2007/08 (4.73 Mt), and neighbouring Ukraine had shipped 0.32 Mt by week 44, against 0.36 to 1.70 Mt at the same week of the five previous seasons. Conviction is low because the way out is open: US corn landed in Europe at $243.35/t on 12 November, about $42/t under Euronext March converted to dollars, and Romanian corn is offered FOB about €17/t under March, before freight. Imports can step in at any time.

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Soybeans

CBOT soybeans (bullish bias). US soybeans are wanted now. With 16.58 Mt left to sell against the USDA programme, against 21.63 to 26.57 Mt at the same week of the five previous seasons, Gulf cash stood $47.27/t over CBOT January on 11 November, above the upper quarter of its range ($39.75/t), and the curve pays little to store: March trades 6 c/bu over January on 12 November, under the lower quarter for the date (7.56 c/bu) and the median of 11 c/bu. Conviction is low because the main buyer is already covered. China held 7.87 Mt of soybeans in week 45, against 2.69 to 7.62 Mt at the same week of the five previous seasons, and US beans landed in China $14.52/t above Brazilian beans on 12 November.

CBOT soybean meal (bearish bias). US meal has to clear through exports, and that outlet is lagging. Meal export sales reached 6.45 Mt by week 45, 31.3% of a 20.59 Mt programme, against 31.4% to 40.3% at the same week of the five previous seasons, and the programme sits 2.2 Mt above last season's 18.42 Mt. Plants crush for oil, which carries nearly half of the crush value, at a US crush margin of $90.54/t against $65.87/t a year earlier, so meal keeps coming whatever its own price. Conviction is low because projected US ending stocks leave little slack, at 0.36 Mt against 0.28 to 0.41 Mt in the five previous seasons, Brazilian crushers earn $8.28/t against $27.65/t a year earlier and have little reason to crush more, and January meal trades $1.80 per short ton under December.

CBOT soybean oil (neutral). Two readings offset each other. The published balance is tight: the USDA puts the US stocks-to-use ratio at 5.1%, against 4.6% last season and 5.6% to 6.0% in the three seasons before; US stocks stood at 0.478 Mt at the end of September, against 0.484 to 0.764 Mt at the same point of the five previous seasons; and renewable diesel, at a margin of $802/t of oil on 13 November with the RIN credit included, against $93/t a year earlier, keeps drawing oil. But the curve pays to store: July trades 1.42 c/lb over December, a carry that stops short of full carrying cost, so cash does not pay for the tightness the balance describes. The premium of US oil futures over Argentine oil FOB narrowed to $184/t on 12 November from $226/t on 10 November, but Argentine oil did the moving, up $55.75/t over those two sessions, not a weaker US market. The October US stocks figure is the next test.

Rapeseed and canola

Euronext rapeseed (bearish bias). Europe has more rapeseed than its crushers want. French collectors held 2.17 Mt at the end of September, the largest in recent years, against 1.67 to 2.02 Mt in the five previous seasons, while EU crushers processed 3.18 Mt in August and September, against 3.25 to 3.43 Mt over the same months of those seasons. The curve still pays to store seed: May trades €1.25/t over February on 12 November, at the upper quarter for the date, when the median is a €1.50/t discount. Conviction is low because the European Commission sees 2026/27 EU supply 1.4 Mt smaller than last season, and the carry has narrowed from €4.50/t on 3 November.

ICE canola (bullish bias). Canada crushes and exports more than its balance sheet allows. Crush has run at about 14.9 Mt a year since June, above the 14.40 Mt of domestic use StatCan projects, and exports keep pace with their programme: 2.21 Mt by week 44, 28.7% of the 7.70 Mt StatCan projects, against 15.8% to 33.0% of final exports at the same week of the five previous seasons. Swapping StatCan's domestic use for that crush pace alone would cut ending stocks to about 1.5 Mt, against the 1.97 Mt StatCan publishes. The curve is starting to price it: the ICE March carry over January narrowed to CAD 9.80/t on 12 November from CAD 12/t on 6 November. Conviction is low because cash still describes plentiful grain: the carry remains above its median of CAD 7.10/t, and Saskatchewan farm cash stood CAD 67.82/t under ICE January on 10 November, against a median of CAD 31.50/t under.

What changed today

• KC HRW wheat: from neutral to bearish bias, because Gulf hard red winter wheat cash fell from $61.61/t to $52.27/t over KC December between 26 October and 11 November, from above its usual level to below it, while the Gulf premiums of soft red wheat, corn and soybeans held.
• CBOT soybean oil: from bearish bias to neutral, because the drop in the US premium over Argentine oil turned out to come from firmer Argentine oil, leaving a carry below full carrying cost against a tight published balance.

To watch: Argentine and French wheat prices delivered to Algeria and Morocco, Rouen wheat cash and the Euronext wheat curve, French port loadings and EU wheat exports, US Gulf cash premiums for hard and soft red winter wheat, corn and soybeans, the Euronext corn curve and Bordeaux corn cash, EU corn imports and Ukrainian corn shipments, weekly US export sales of corn, soybeans and soybean meal, the CBOT corn and soybean curves, US and Brazilian soybean prices delivered to China, US October soybean crush and soybean oil stocks, the US premium over Argentine soybean oil, the Euronext rapeseed curve, French collector rapeseed stocks for October, Canadian October crush and weekly canola exports, the ICE canola curve and Saskatchewan cash.